Top 5 Positional Matchups for Week 6
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and once we hit Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Chiefs and WFT Receiving Options
Josh Allen smoked the Kansas City defense in their own house. The Saints came to Maryland and beat up what was supposed to be a good defense. K.C. is 25th in aFPA to wide receivers while WFT is 31st. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not expected to play Week 6 and while Darrel Williams is a serviceable backup, he is not CEH or one of Patrick Mahomes’ aerial weapons. WFT has allowed three consecutive four-pass-touchdown games in a row.
The Chiefs have allowed 113-plus yards or two receiving touchdowns in four straight games this season. The lack of connection between Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin should be aided this week and one thing that WFT has to take advantage of is the declining play of Chiefs safety Daniel Sorensen.
Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison at Carolina Panthers
Your top rush defense resides in North Carolina and is allowing 11.0 half-point PPR points per game. That is best by 2.2 points. Dalvin Cook going from inactive to facing the Panthers' front seven on the road is less than ideal and Alexander Mattison almost fumbled the game away to the 0-5 Detroit Lions. Carolina is much more opportunistic with the ball and is good enough against the pass to disrupt the Vikings' offense. Only the Buffalo Bills give up fewer points to opposing offenses than Carolina. Temper expectations with the running offense.
Titans Offense versus Buffalo Bills
The Bills are top seven in aFPA to every position. A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry were the clear offensive bell-cows Week 5 with Julio Jones out, with minimal contributions from anyone else. Henry will once again lead the Titans in touches but with the way the Bills just stunned the Chiefs offense, expect Henry to finally have an ‘okay’ game or worse. If Brown cannot top 50 yards receiving against jamokes like the Jaguars and Colts...
Mike Gesicki @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Gesicki is averaging almost eight targets per game since Week 2 and gets the 31st ranked defense against the tight end position. His 4-43-0 Week 5 ended a two-game double-digit scoring streak in half-PPR formats. Jacoby Brissett is targeting Gesicki with and without healthy wide receivers and will keep Urban Meyers’s hands busy trying to slow Gesicki.
Robert Tonyan @ Chicago Bears
Without including the Bears, Robert Tonyan has been outproduced by teammate Marcedes Lewis twice in five games and only topped Lewis by one yard (8:7) another week. If Tonyan cannot top a 37-year old how is he expected to get open against Roquan Smith, one of the best all-around tight ends in football? Chicago is tops in football in aFPA to tight ends. Week 6 is a great week to look elsewhere at tight end if you roster Tonyan.