Top 5 Positional Matchups of Week 5
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and once we hit Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Jaguars Receivers vs Tennessee Titans
The loss of D.J. Chark for the season takes a chunk from Jacksonville’s wide receiver depth, but it also gives fantasy players a more concentrated offense to target in good matchups. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. are Trevor Lawrence’s top options against a Titans defense that is 31st in aFPA to wide receivers. This is also good news for a player such as Tyron Johnson, the field-stretching former Charger who will see more work with Chark injured. Tennessee allows opposing wide receivers to average 15.48 yards per catch and 43.36 fantasy points to the position in half-point PPR formats.
Leonard Fournette vs Miami Dolphins
We go back to the Dolphins well for Leonard Fournette. Uncle Lenny had 23 total touches in Week 4, including 3-47 through the air with Giovani Bernard out. If Bernard misses another game Fournette will continue to see a handful of targets that complement his rushing work against the 31st-ranked rush defense using aFPA. Ronald Jones vultured a touchdown last week but was out touched 20-6 in the run game and 3-0 through the air. Fournette is the lead back until further notice.
Damien Williams @ Las Vegas Raiders
The lead back for Chicago will get his first start against a defense that is 30th in aFPA to opposing running backs. Williams and the Bears rushed for 188 yards Week 4 against a similarly poor Lions run defense and he was the only Bears back to log a reception. Williams should see work in both phases of the offense but could cede some work to rookie Khalil Herbert. Regardless, Williams has thrived as a lead back in small-to-medium sample sizes and will be asked to carry a large workload, especially if Justin Fields is starting.
Baker Mayfield @ Los Angeles Chargers
Time to get negative. Baker Mayfield was nothing short of awful in Cleveland’s Week 4 win at Minnesota. Mayfield now gets the top defense is aFPA against quarterbacks. His yards per attempt has plummeted the past two weeks and he has two weeks without a touchdown pass. Mayfield only has two passing scores through four weeks and has been bailed out by running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They also have a bottom-10 matchup this week. It looks to be a ‘fade the Browns’ situation where possible in season-long formats.
Jets Defense at Atlanta Falcons and Falcons Defense vs New York Jets
Week 5 gives us a Spider-Man meme scenario! The Jets (14.3) and Falcons (13.1) offenses provide the most points to opposing defenses in half-point PPR formats and face each other. Neither offense is in the top half of total fantasy points as an offense and have issues being consistent threats with the ball. Throw in that the game is being played in London and this game could get weird in a hurry. 4for4’s Justin Edwards had the Jets offensive line ranked 19th and Falcons 25th to start the season and have played like their rankings.