Kyler Murray, The Late Round Fantasy Football Quarterback You Need

Kyler Murray’s NFL career has had its peaks and valleys. For a while, he fully lived up to his number one overall pick status, bringing the Cardinals success and producing at a high level. Over the last few years, however, Murray’s standing in the NFL and as a fantasy quarterback have been on a downward slope. 2026 brings new beginnings, though, and now he has a chance to reignite his career.

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Early Career Success

As a rookie, Kyler Murray showed what made him the top pick in his draft class. Murray came out swinging and finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback with 18.2 Fantasy PPG, buoyed by rushing for over 500 yards. As a passer, he had some work to do, finishing 25th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt among quarterbacks, but his rank of 16th in True Quarterback Rating showed promise.

Kyler Murray followed up his inspiring rookie season with what would become the best season of his career in 2020. As a sophomore, Murray scored 24.4 Fantasy PPG with an electric season. Murray passed for nearly 4,000 yards while running for over 800 more, and had 37 total touchdowns with 11 of them coming on the ground. He was especially efficient near the goal line with a 66.7% Red Zone Completion Percentage, and improved his Adjusted Yards per Attempt to finish 20th among quarterbacks.

In 2021, Kyler Murray nearly duplicated his sophomore breakout while leading the Cardinals to an 11-6 record. He averaged 22.2 Fantasy PPG while averaging a career high in passing yards per game and finishing 9th among quarterbacks in Adjusted Yards per Attempt. He was also 7th in EPA and 3rd in True Passer Rating. Unfortunately, Murray would not be able to repeat the success of his second and third seasons.

Want to see a weird list? Top 15 QBs all-time in terms of fantasy points per game.

16, 17, and 18 are Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. pic.twitter.com/FHRIXyWzuv

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) February 7, 2026

A Rocky Road

The 2022 season was a turning point for Kyler Murray. He was playing well, only slightly below his previous two seasons, and scoring 20 Fantasy PPG. But in Week 14, Murray tore his ACL, ending his season. The injury bled into the following season, and he didn’t return until Week 10 of 2023. Murray scored well for most other quarterbacks in his return, but for Murray, it wasn’t quite up to standards. He finished 2023 with 18.3 Fantasy PPG in his eight games.

2024 was another season where most quarterbacks would be happy with the output that Kyler Murray had, but it still didn’t match up to the heights we know he can reach. Murray averaged 18.1 Fantasy PPG, the lowest of his career to that point. Murray mostly played similar to how he had in the past; he just didn’t produce quite at the same level. He was still an average passer and was among the leaders at his position in rushing, but there wasn’t enough of either.

Kyler Murray’s 2025 season was a near worst-case scenario for him. He played in only five games, averaging 16.2 Fantasy PPG, before suffering a foot injury. For a while, it seemed like Murray would return at some point, but instead the Cardinals ended up sticking with Jacoby Brissett the rest of the season. It was a bit of a mysterious situation as it didn’t seem like it should have been an injury that kept Murray out that long. We were left speculating that Murray’s time in Arizona was coming to an end, which came to be true when he was released this offseason.

New Beginnings

Entering free agency for the first time in his career, Kyler Murray seemed to have multiple suitors, and he eventually signed with the Vikings. Minnesota was coming off a season in which their plans for former first-round pick J.J. McCarthy were expected to show he was their franchise quarterback. Instead, McCarthy struggled mightily, necessitating the Vikings to make a move at the position as a team trying to compete for a Super Bowl.

Some have proposed that there is a quarterback competition to be the starter between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy. This is misguided. There could be a battle in name, but there’s no battle. People are likely assuming the Vikings would be unwilling to move on so quickly from a first-round quarterback, and that Murray’s 2025 season has drastically lowered his stock. But Murray wouldn’t sign anywhere to compete. He had multiple teams vying for his services, and he's proven enough to not have to battle for his position on the team that signed him.

With the Vikings, Kyler Murray finds himself in what is the best situation he’s ever been in. He’s got great pass game weapons between Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson. The offensive line is solid. There’s a capable backfield behind him. Perhaps most importantly, he has Kevin O’Connell as his head coach running the offense. O’Connell is a highly thought-of offensive mind who’s found a way to get high-end performances from worse quarterbacks like Nick Mullins, Joshua Dobbs, and Carson Wentz.

Almost anyone can play to the standard under Kevin O'Connell. Except JJ McCarthy.

Justin Jefferson career receiving yards per target by QB:
1. Nick Mullens 10.8
2. Kirk Cousins 10.5
3. Sam Darnold 10.0
4. Carson Wentz 9.9
5. JJ McCarthy 5.7 (my god) https://t.co/S7g22NLQEE

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 20, 2026

Bottom Line

• Even with his down year in 2025 and a bit of a slump the two years prior, Kyler Murray ranks 8th all-time in career Fantasy PPG. He has the fantasy ceiling to be one of the best values in fantasy football.
• Murray is now playing in the best situation of his career with the Vikings, setting him up to produce in the way he did early in his career.
• According to the 4for4 Multi-Site ADP, Murray is being drafted as QB17. This cost doesn’t reflect the ceiling he possesses or the floor he has. Murray is an easy target for late-round QB strategies.