Undervalued Dynasty Players: Preseason 2021
For the last several years, I've been using 4for4's early rankings to identify dynasty trade targets in the offseason. I first described the process in 2019, when it identified players like Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones and Curtis Samuel. A couple of months ago, after the NFL draft, we did a first run of this process for 2021. In this article, we will have a look at what has changed, and see if we can spot any new undervalued players.
As a quick reminder, here is how this process works. Starting with our projections for next season, I project each player further forward, beyond next season, using typical age curves for their position in order to estimate the points scored in all future seasons. Then, I combine all those points into a lifetime value for the player, in a similar manner to how you would value a stock.
Estimated lifetime values should correlate very strongly with ADP. Where the two disagree, we have a player that is potentially under-or over-valued. Below, I will go through the players who stand out as undervalued after applying this process with 4for4 rankings and current dynasty startup ADP.
After the draft, we identified Jalen Hurts and Ryan Fitzpatrick as the most undervalued dynasty quarterbacks. They remain the two most undervalued quarterbacks today by this metric. Beneath those two, however, one more name stands out to me.
Tua Tagovailoa is being drafted in the double-digit rounds of dynasty startups, over two full rounds after Joe Burrow. We do have Burrow projected above Tua this year, but only one spot. His projection is only nine points higher over the full season. Meanwhile, Tua is over a full year younger than Burrow. The model does estimate Burrow's value slightly higher than Tua's, but not enough to justify a two-round gap in ADP. Drafters presumably see Burrow as a much safer option, after his impressive rookie season. However, Tua has an excellent collection of weapons around him this year, including Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker. He is set up to succeed this season, and if he does, that gap in ADP should close.
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