The Rundown: Week 12 Stats to Know & Colts vs Texans
Week 11 was a reminder that not all waiver wire adds are created equal. Those who had a free-agent budget or waiver position and spent it on Brian Hill were burned last week. Those who needed a spot quarterback start from Jeff Driskel were rewarded. For some, this may be the last week before the fantasy playoffs so it is a good opportunity to think about players not just for this week, but for the next several as well. That includes team defenses and quarterbacks where streaming is especially effective given the potential NFL matchups and limited competition for free-agent options.
Each week, I will provide a preview article with some key overall stats to watch for along with the Thursday game preview that includes start/sit ratings. Then, there will be subsequent previews later in the week with all the other games in time for the remaining fantasy decisions before kickoff. For much of this data, I will be using 4for4's Snaps, Touches, and Targets Apps as well as analyzing each team's pace and play-calling tendencies.
Ten Stats to Know for Week 12
- Strive for five: Lamar Jackson scored 30 fantasy points for the fifth time this season in Week 11. No other quarterback has more than two such instances.
- The Roaring 20’s: Christian McCaffrey has scored 20 PPR points or more in eight straight games. He could become the 13th player to reach nine straight this week.
- High fives: Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins both have caught five or more passes in all 10 games they’ve played this year.
- The Iron Man: Chris Godwin is the only non-quarterback to play over 300 snaps in the last four weeks. He has only been off the field for 10 snaps during that time.
- Make it count: Kirk Cousins has completed eight passes inside the 10-yard line. All eight were touchdowns.
- Easy targets: James White and Mark Andrews are the only two players who are targeted on over 20% of their offensive snaps among players with 50-plus targets.
- LA drought: Todd Gurley received over 20 total touches for the first time in 2019 last week. He accomplished the feat nine times in 2018.
- This rookie’s cookin’: Josh Jacobs is vying to be the 17th rookie to play at least 10 games and average 90 rushing yards per game. He is currently at 92.3.
- Chasing 400: Dak Prescott became the first quarterback to throw for over 400 yards in three games this season. He has over 800 yards in the past two weeks.
- The Running Man: Josh Allen’s 33.6 PPR points from running over the past three weeks would rank him as the RB22 during that time.
Colts @ Texans
Spread: Texans -3.5 | Total: 45
The Colts have a slim lead on the division, but just lost Marlon Mack to a hand injury that will keep him out of this short turnaround. That’s unfortunate for the fourth-ranked rushing offense, who will go into this one on the shaky shoulders of Jonathan Williams. They get the Texans here, the fifth-ranked rushing and the team that is on the Colts’ heels for the division. After the beating they took against the Ravens, the Texans will be extra motivated in this one.
They beat the Texans earlier in the season on the strength of their passing game and will likely need to approach it similarly here without Mack. This would be a good week for TY Hilton to return, but that seems unlikely. Expect a fair amount of volume from Jacoby Brissett regardless, with the tight ends needing to be heavily involved.
Team Trends That Matter
- Seven straight games with at least one offensive turnover.
- Have allowed just one quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns since Week 3.
- Only one running back has scored over 13 PPR points against the Colts since Week 2.
Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know
- QB Jacoby Brissett (2) - Only one game with multiple passing touchdowns since Week 4
- RB Jonathan Williams (3) - Six running backs have scored 15 or more PPR points against the Texans this year
- WR Zach Pascal (2) - The only wide receiver with a 100-yard receiving game against the Texans since Week 3
- WR Marcus Johnson (2) - The Texans have allowed 14 touchdowns to wide receivers in 2019
- TE Eric Ebron (3) - Has exceeded 30 snaps played once in the past four games
- TE Jack Doyle (3) - Week 11 broke a three-game streak with double-digit PPR points
The Texans will likely balance their attack against the Colts, who have been average to above-average against both the pass and the run. There shouldn’t be any surprises here and there is a chance they could find more offensive success here than their previous meeting.
Team Trends That Matter
- Last week, Gus Edwards became the first running back to exceed 100 rushing yards.
- Five of the past six quarterbacks threw for three or more touchdowns against the Texans.
- The Texans are scoring a touchdown on 28.3% of their offensive drives ranks fifth this season.
Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know
- QB Deshaun Watson (5) - Has only thrown over 40 pass attempts once this season
- RB Carlos Hyde (3) - Played his fewest snaps (21) of any game this season in Week 11
- RB Duke Johnson (3) - Has not surpassed 50 rushing yards since Week 5
- WR DeAndre Hopkins (5) - Played a season-low 57 snaps in Week 11
- WR Kenny Stills (2) - Saw a season-high seven targets in Week 11
- TE Darren Fells (2) - Two straight games with just one reception in each contest
Fantasy Rating Key
- (5) - Elite option. Must start.
- (4) - Strong option. Likely start.
- (3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
- (2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
- (1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
- (0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.