DFS Running Back Strategy: DraftKings 2015 Year in Review

It's important to be price sensitive at running back in DFS. High-priced studs with reliable workloads might make you comfortable, but the key to the RB position is finding inexpensive RBs slated to get major volume.

In 2015, there were 257 instances when 4for4 had an RB projected for at least 18 touches. Of those 257, 107 cost $6,000 or more and 150 cost less than $6,000. That was pretty much the only difference between the two groups, as the cheaper group averaged 15.7 DraftKings points per game -- only 0.4 less than the more expensive group.

I compiled data on the performance of RBs on DraftKings relative to their salary in 2015 to see what we can learn going forward.

I broke salaries down into $500 increments and looked at points scored per $1,000 of salary, percentage of time hitting cash game value, and percentage of time hitting tournament value. I also took a look at how each individual RB performed.

I looked at 611 RB games from 2015 (every game where an RB had a salary and was projected for 8.5 DraftKings points or more by 4for4). The RB data will be compared across salary ranges and across positions.

I'll lay out the data below and follow it up with a few key points, and then I'll sum up the actionable takeaways at the end of the article.

Note: The sample sizes for each salary tier can be found in the appendix at the end of the article.

Salary vs. Performance

• As I alluded to in the intro, there is a large dropoff in value at $6,000 and above.
• With what looks like an across-the-board increase in QB pricing in 2016, finding value at RB could be even more important this season.

Cash Game Value

Scores needed to cash will vary by week, but generally, if your lineup scores three points per $1,000, you'll reach 150 points, which is usually good enough to place in a 50/50 league or win just over half of your head-to-heads.

• Don't pay much attention to the $8,000 and above range for RBs, as there were only eight instances all year where RBs were priced that high (compared to 71 instances for WRs).
• Paying up for an RB in the $7,500-$7,900 tier returned good value (although there was a relatively small sample size of 22 there as well), but you could get similar value by sticking with much cheaper RBs.
• As I mentioned in the DFS Playbook 2016: RB Strategy article, 4for4 had a running back projected for at least 18 touches at a salary of $4,500 or below 43 times, or 2.5 times per week, in 2015. Those RBs averaged 14.5 points and returned an average value of 3.57 points per $1,000. You have to nail these situations when they arise.
• 214 RBs hit 3x value in 2015, or 12.6 per week.

Of the 214 RBs to hit 3x value:

• the average spread was -0.88, the average over/under was 45.1, and the average team total was 23.0.
• 55.6 percent were favorites, 52.3 percent were at home, and 40.1 percent had a team total of 24 or higher.
• the average amount of touches was 19.9, and 60.7 percent had 18 or more touches.

Tournament Value

You are generally aiming to score at least 200 points to place highly in a tournament, and you'll usually need around 250 points to win. If your lineup scores four points per $1,000, you'll score 250, which is the value point I'll use to examine tournament performance:

• In GPPs, the importance of finding value at RB really shows. While the higher salary tiers favor spending at WR, RBs in the $4,000-$5,900 range performed comparable or better than WRs in the same range in terms of reaching 4x value. Only 20 percent of RBs in winning lineups of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament in 2015 cost $6,000 or more.
• In 2015, there were 115 RBs who hit 4x value, or 6.8 per week.

Of the 115 RBs to hit 4x value:

• the average spread was -1.30, the average over/under was 45.3, and the average team total was 23.3.
• 56.5 percent were at home, 55.6 percent were favorites, and 43.5 percent had a team total of 24 or above.
• the average amount of touches was 20.4, and 60.9 percent had at least 18 touches.
• 83.5 percent scored at least one TD.

Individual RB Value

• The top of the list is almost exclusively comprised of RBs taking over the starting role (remember there was an 8.5 projected point threshold for the sample, which helps isolate these situations and remove the instances where RBs wouldn't be viewed as startable in DFS).
• After RBs who gained starting roles, the next group consists of receiving backs with prominent roles in their offense. I've repeatedly seen the question posed of when the best time to play these pass-catching RBs is, and often the logical hypothesis is to play them when their team is an underdog and will likely have to pass more. To test this hypothesis, I looked at the combined 2015 results of Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick, Charles Sims, Chris Thompson, Bilal Powell, Shane Vereen, and Giovani Bernard. In the games where they hit 3x value, their teams were favorites 65 percent of the time -- more than the sample overall (55.6). It's up for debate whether the sample is truly meaningful (there were 29 instances of 3x value combined among the aforementioned RBs),but either way, it would only confirm what we already knew: that RBs perform better as favorites. Because of their workload, a cheap starting RB is more predictable -- and therefore more valuable -- than a cheap pass-catching RB.
• Some RBs with high preseason ADPs that appear on the bottom of the list -- namely Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, and Jeremy Hill -- serve as reminders that preseason expectations influence salaries early in the year, which can lead to some instances where players are grossly overvalued.

Final Takeaways

It's extremely important to be price-sensitive at RB on DraftKings, as most shiny new inexpensive RBs slated to see a good amount of touches (usually 18 or more) will be capable matching the output of those who are far more established and expensive. Furthermore, while RBs skew toward better performances with favorable Vegas odds, those odds aren't predictive enough to just blindly use Vegas odds to pick RBs without looking at projected touches, which is the best predictor of RB value.

Appendix

Related Articles

• DFS Running Back Strategy: FanDuel 2015 Year in Review
• DFS Quarterback Strategy: DraftKings 2015 Year in Review
• DFS Quarterback Strategy: FanDuel 2015 Year in Review
• DFS Playbook 2016: Running Back Strategy
• DFS Big Game Profiles: Running Backs
• ​The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel
• The Definitive Guide to Stacking on DraftKings
• Leveraging Weekly Player Consistency in NFL DFS
• Vegas Odds Will Give You an Edge in Your Fantasy Football Draft