Bengals Beat: Giovani Bernard may return to a 50/50 split with Jeremy Hill

Bengals beat writer Paul Dehner on the Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill split once Bernard returns from injury: Running backs coach Kyle Caskey said on Beyond The Stripes the other night when I asked him about this that they already knew what Hill could do and this was the type of back he could be. I'd have to believe as hard as this team has tried to jumpstart this running game this season if he drops another 100-plus on the Browns tonight he will have earned an increase in his reps, particularly on first and second down. I'd imagine something much closer to a 50-50 split should be in order

Bernard saw 67% of the touches (carries + catches) when he was healthy, so a 50/50 split represent a drop in touches from 18.7 to 13.9 per game, though it's more likely he'll retain all (or most) of his receptions and simply split carries with Hill. If that's the case, he should see around 14.4 touches per game. It's still a significant drop for Bernard. He's averaging around 0.71 FP/touch, so he'd produce an estimated 10.2 PPG with a 14.4-touch workload. That's about what Chris Ivory and Eddie Lacy have averaged this season in standard formats. In short, Bernard would be an RB2 (instead of an RB1) if he splits carries with Hill. In PPR formats, he would score an estimated 13.3 PPG, which is a bit more than what Eddie Lacy has scored this season, so he'd be more of a low-end RB1 in PPR.

As for Hill, a 50/50 split in carries represents an increase to 13.3 touches per game (from 9.0). He has scored around 0.90 FP per touch in standard formats, so that would result in an estimated 12.0 FP on a 13.3-touch workload, which is more than Bernard's estimate. If we only prorate his pre-Week 9 production (i.e. not counting his huge game against the Jaguars), he would score about 10.7 PPG in standard formats, which is still a bit more more than Bernard. He would average about 12.5 in PPR formats, which is about what Shane Vereen has produced this season. Hill would be a high-end RB2 in a 50/50 split, though the Bengals may still favor Bernard in the running game, so consider this the best case scenario for HIll.