2026 Fantasy Football Projections - Superflex - QB

In 2024, Jackson was historically dominant—the overall QB1 at 25.5 points per game with 13 of 16 games over 20 points and zero games below 10. Then 2025 happened. Jackson missed five games, finished QB20 overall, and cratered in the second half of the season, averaging just 12.0 points per game after the midway point compared to 23.8 before it. The rushing, typically his fantasy floor, fell to 26.9 yards per game with just two rushing touchdowns—a fraction of his usual production. His efficiency slipped to the 60th percentile in EPA per dropback, still respectable but a far cry from the MVP-caliber play of the prior season. The offseason brings change. Isaiah Likely is gone, and while Mark Andrews is back, the Ravens are banking on rookie tight ends Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt to fill the void alongside him. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle takes over play-calling duties. Zay Flowers remains a legitimate number-one receiver, but the overall supporting cast feels thinner than it was a year ago and he has missed 18% of his games in the last five seasons. Jackson is going as the QB2 with an overall ADP in the middle of the fifth round. The talent is undeniable—when healthy, Jackson has as high a ceiling as anyone in fantasy. But the second-half collapse, the reduced rushing, and a transitional roster make QB2 a price that carries more risk than it has in years.

Daniels was electric as a rookie in 2024, finishing as the overall QB4 at 22.0 points per game with 10 of 16 games over 20 points. Then injuries derailed his sophomore season. He appeared in just seven games in 2025, finishing QB33 overall, but the per-game production when fully healthy was still impressive—he averaged 19.6 points in his four full games and posted 17.7 and 15.2 in two additional contests where he played only 69 and 88 percent of the snaps, respectively. The efficiency metrics in his limited action (47th percentile EPA, 24th percentile CPOE on just 186 attempts) are hard to read much into given the small sample and the fact that he was clearly battling through injuries. The rushing was still there: Daniels averaged 45.4 rushing yards in the five games where he played at least 87% of the snaps. The supporting cast has turned over. Terry McLaurin remains the alpha, and the Commanders possibly upgraded at tight end by bringing in Chigoziem Okonkwo to replace Zach Ertz. They lost Deebo Samuel but drafted Antonio Williams and added Rachaad White and Jerome Ford to reshape the backfield. It's a transitional roster, but Daniels' rushing ability gives him a floor that's almost impossible to replicate at the position. He's going as the QB4, and that's a price built entirely on the 2024 version of Daniels. If he's healthy, the rushing alone makes him a weekly QB1.

When Burrow is on the field, he's one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football. He finished QB3 in 2024 at 22.5 points per game—his second top-four finish in three seasons—and was dominant down the stretch, averaging 26.4 points per game in the second half. His 2025 was derailed by injury yet again: he played just seven games, though his accuracy upon return was outstanding—91st percentile in CPOE and 73rd percentile in EPA per dropback. In the five games after coming back from his midseason absence (Weeks 13–17), he averaged 19.5 points per game, suggesting the arm talent was still very much intact. The problem is that the arm talent has never been the question. Burrow has missed 16 games over the last three seasons, and that kind of volatility is difficult to build a roster around, especially at a QB3 ADP. The rushing offers almost nothing—5.1 yards per game last season, 11.8 in 2024, 8.8 in 2023—so he's mostly pass-dependent, which makes him more vulnerable to bad game scripts and low-volume weeks than the dual-threat quarterbacks going around him. On the other hand, Ja'Marr Chase is the best receiver in fantasy football, Tee Higgins gives him an elite second option, and the Bengals' defense has a way of keeping Burrow in high-volume passing situations. At QB3, the ceiling is there—he's finished top four twice in four full seasons—but you're paying a premium that doesn't account for the very real chance he misses a month.

Lawrence has quietly put together a strong case as one of the most undervalued quarterbacks at his price point. After back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, he returned healthy in 2025 and finished QB4 overall at 19.7 points per game—and the second-half surge was striking, improving from 16.6 points per game before the midpoint to 22.7 after it. The rushing is underrated: Lawrence averaged 21.6 yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns last season, a number that rivals some of the best dual-threat weeks at the position. His accuracy still lags—29th percentile in CPOE—but the EPA per dropback (69th percentile) and the touchdown production suggest he makes enough plays where it counts. The Jaguars lost Travis Etienne but added Chris Rodriguez to help carry the backfield load, and it's Year 2 with Liam Coen, who is making the case that he’s one of the best offensive minds in the league. The receiving corps features Brian Thomas Jr. as a possible WR1, Jakobi Meyers as a reliable slot option, the efficient Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter, who has the talent to produce, provided he gets enough run on offense. Lawrence is going as a midrange QB1, and given his QB4 finish last year and the rushing floor he provides, that price looks fair. If the second-year Coen offense unlocks another level, there's top-five upside here once again.

Williams took a meaningful step forward in Year 2, improving from a solid QB14 rookie finish to the overall QB6 at 18.8 points per game, a 3.6-point-per-game increase. He showed the ability to spike with a 37.7-point explosion, and demonstrated that Ben Johnson's system fits his skillset. The rushing contribution (22.8 yards per start, three touchdowns) gives him a nice floor that his rookie season didn't always provide. The advanced stat concerns are real, though. His CPOE sat at the 16th percentile. He can make plays, but he remains an inconsistent thrower, and losing D.J. Moore, his veteran security blanket, matters. Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and second-year Luther Burden III all have upside, however. Year 2 in Johnson's system should help, and the ceiling is firmly top-five if the accuracy improves and the receiver group gels. He's going as a midrange QB1, which means you're paying for the upside while accepting the inconsistency. If the CPOE improves to match his EPA (62nd percentile), he's a borderline value. If it doesn't, he may be hard-pressed to match his ADP.