Jake's Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 4: 8-1, +$700

Overall: 17-11, +$446

12.70% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals

Week 4 Recap

It felt good to finally have our breakthrough week of the year after a positive start in Week 1 and back-to-back losing weeks in Weeks 2 and 3.

We had some easy winners, such as Greg Dortch (1.5 receptions), DeAndre Hopkins (under 1.5 receptions), and Xavier Worthy (over 40.5 receiving yards). All three of those bets were extremely straightforward; Dortch was thrown into a starting role where 1.5 receptions was just way too light. Hopkins, with a 1.5 receptions line with reasonable juice, is just flat out wrong. Facing a KC defense with talented outside CBs, Hopkins would've had to make spectacular jump ball catches over higher quality DBs. Also, Worthy at 40.5 was extremely light.

Worthy wasn't wearing a brace on his shoulder towards the end of the week of practice, and the Chiefs were staring 1-3 dead in the face as home underdogs to another top AFC team. This was a must-win, and Worthy is far and away their best skill player. It was clear they were going to feed Worthy in this spot. Stroud u31.5 pass attempts and Ward u19.5 completions were somewhat correlated, and it went just as I had expected.

The Titans couldn't sustain any drives and scored no points, forcing Stroud to do essentially nothing. Stroud got sweaty because of just how incompetent the Titans' offense was, and Ward completed only 38% of his passes (LOL). We had a couple of more sweaty wins, such as Bucky o14.5 carries and Jones o30.5 pass attempts, which should've been easier, but a win is a win. A.J. Brown o4.5 receptions was our only loss, and in hindsight, it probably wasn't the greatest read. The Eagles have no intention of throwing the ball if they don't have to, and they seem broken offensively. They're 4-0, but it hasn't been pretty in the slightest.

Week 5 Bets

Adam Thielen UNDER 1.5 Receptions -140 DK, -147 Builder, -154 Cs, -160 FD (Play to line) UNDER 11.5 yards is a viable alt widely available

Adam Thielen only ran 12 routes on 54 Carson Wentz dropbacks last week while the Vikings were in negative gamescript for most of the game. This week, we have the Vikings as 3.5-point favorites against the Dillon Gabriel-led Browns. We should see a super run-heavy game plan from both teams this week. Thielen is a part-time player in a really tough matchup against a great Cleveland defense in a game where we should see limited pass volume.

Risk to win 1 unit

Carson Wentz UNDER 212.5 Passing Yards (-113 DK, 211.5 ESPN/Builder, 209.5 CZRs, 207.5 FD) play to 205.5

Despite the Browns' 1-3 record, their defense is one of the best in the NFL, and it has shown its dominance in multiple games this year. The Browns have held opposing QBs such as Jordan Love to 18/25 for 185 yards, Joe Burrow to 14/23 for 113 yards, and Goff to 16/27 for 168 yards. The only QB to surpass 200 yards in a game against the Browns this season was Lamar Jackson, which is when the Ravens, weirdly enough, had a 10.2% PROE despite leading for the entirety of the game and having a very good run game. Wentz has struggled with pressure this season and throughout his career, too, and the Browns should be able to get home with their pass rush. I expect a low-play volume/scoring game with both teams having elite defenses. Both teams should also be extremely run-heavy.

Risk to win 1 unit



Kenneth Walker UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-154 FD, -161 Builder)

Walker is only averaging 9.5 routes per game this season. Last week, Charbonnet played 8/10 third-down snaps and played all three 2-minute drill snaps. Seattle leans Charbonnet in clear passing situations. Unless Walker's route participation increases significantly, he'll have to run extremely hot and catch three balls on around 10 routes, which would be a significant increase in passing usage as his TPRR is only 0.18 through the first four games this season. Seattle is also a 3.5-point home favorite, so increased drop-backs out of Darnold are unlikely.

Risk to win 1 unit

Greg Dortch UNDER 14.5 receiving yards -110 FD

UNDER 16.5 -113 Cs, -110 MGM/HR/Bet365. 20.5 -140 on Fanatics

Last week we were on Dortch over 1.5 receptions / 12.5 yards with Zay Jones inactive (concussion) and he delivered going 4-35 on 5 targets. This week, Dortch is lined 4 yards higher with Zay Jones returning to the lineup; Jones cleared concussion protocol and doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game. With Zay Jones active for the first three games this season, Dortch has seen 4 targets, for 4 receptions totaling 12 yards (-0.6 aDOT LOL). Dortch should return to his WR4 role in a game where we should see lower pass volume out of the Cardinals who are 8.5-point home favorites against a reeling Titans team.

Risk to win 1 unit



Devin Singletary OVER 17.5 Rushing Yards (-113 DK, -114 FD/CZRs, -112 Kambi)

Last week was Jaxson Dart's debut, and the Giants' offense had 32 RB carries (25 for Skattebo and 7 for Singletary). The Giants had a PROE of -9.0% (30th on the week). The Giants are only 1.5-point underdogs and should stick to their run-heavy attack against a middling Saints run defense. Saints games have also featured the most total plays through four games, and that's mainly due to the Saints leading the league in neutral pace and being second in no-huddle rate. The Giants' offense also played very fast last week, ranking first in neutral pace and second in no-huddle rate in Dart's debut. I don't expect the Giants to fall behind or yield a lot of points from the Saints' offense, which should allow the Giants to stick to their extremely run-heavy attack. Both teams play fast, and we should expect a high total of plays, which is always great for overs. Additionally, the Giants had only two running backs active last week, which means Singletary is the only back to spell Skattebo. Singletary posted a rushing line of 7/28/0 last week, and I am anticipating around five carries again this week.

Risk to win 1 unit



Calvin Ridley UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-114 FD, -115 DK, -122 CZRs)

Ridley only ran a route on 57.9% of Cam Ward's dropbacks last week and also left the game early and played his last snap with 14 minutes left in the 4Q. HC Brian Callahan was asked after the game why Ridley had played so few snaps, and he responded that Ridley is "banged up". Ridely went DNP-DNP-LP this week and is "trending towards playing". Ridley is clearly not in full health, and the team seems very noncommittal about his game status, which makes it clear he's not 100% and there's a chance he'll be limited or leave this game early again. We also have another out that the Titans are legitimately awful.

Risk to win 1 unit

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