Should We Be Buying Low on Patrick Mahomes?

Going into the 2025 season, Patrick Mahomes represents one of the most intriguing value propositions at quarterback. Despite leading Kansas City to a 15-1 regular season record in his starts and another Super Bowl appearance, Mahomes has averaged fewer than 19 fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons and has finished outside the top 10 in that category among QBs. Currently being drafted as the QB6 with an ADP of 86.5, Mahomes offers the rare combination of proven championship pedigree and significant upside for positive regression after posting career-low efficiency numbers in 2024.

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The 2024 "Down" Year in Context

Mahomes' 2024 campaign tells a story of a quarterback who remained highly productive despite concerning underlying metrics. He finished with 3,928 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions across 16 games, while adding 33 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.

The efficiency decline was notable across multiple metrics. Mahomes posted a 67.5% completion percentage but saw his yards per attempt dip a yard below his career average. Mahomes enters his age-29 season no longer an elite fantasy option but rather a middle-of-the-pack starter. After being a perennial top-six fantasy QB (PPG), he has finished 13th and 11th the past two seasons.

What's most encouraging for regression arguments is the touchdown data. Mahomes has evolved into a quarterback who still attempts a ton of passes (ranking third in pass attempts four years in a row), but is more conservative (career-low 6.4 aDOT and 6.8 YPA in 2024) and doesn't throw as many TDs as in years past (his 26 last season was his fewest since 2019). His 4.5% touchdown rate in 2024 was significantly below his career average of 5.9%.

The Case for 2025 Improvement

Several factors point toward a potential bounce-back season for Mahomes. The receiving corps should be healthier and more settled than it was in 2024. With all-world speedster Xavier Worthy heading into Year 2, promising rookie Jalen Royals entering the mix, and a potential full season of Hollywood Brown, the ceiling is higher for Kansas City's passing attack in 2025.

The deep ball component, which was historically a strength for Kansas City, showed concerning trends in 2024. However, the Chiefs' offense ranked 27th in 20-plus-yard plays in 2024. Since Tyreek Hill departed to Miami and Travis Kelce has taken a step back, its offense has not connected on splash plays as often. Mahomes himself has acknowledged this, as well.

The volume foundation remains strong. Mahomes has evolved into a quarterback who still attempts many passes, which provides a solid floor for fantasy production even if his efficiency doesn't fully rebound.

Current Value and Draft Strategy

At his current ADP of 86.5 as the QB6, Mahomes is being drafted behind quarterbacks like Josh Allen (32.7 ADP), Lamar Jackson (35.1 ADP), Jayden Daniels (39.8 ADP), Jalen Hurts (46.9 ADP), and Joe Burrow (62.1 ADP). This represents a dramatic fall from his historical draft position and creates value for fantasy managers willing to bet on positive regression.

After averaging better than 20 fantasy points per game in each of his first five seasons as Kansas City's starting quarterback, the foundation for a return to elite production exists. Mahomes has not been a fantasy football game-changer over the last two seasons, but a more dangerous offensive attack could put him back in the high-end QB1 range.

The risk-reward profile at his current price point is compelling. While he may not return to the 25+ fantasy points per game he averaged during his peak seasons, even a return to the 20-point range would represent significant value at QB6 pricing.

The Bottom Line

• Two-year regression creates opportunity - Mahomes has averaged fewer than 19 fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons and has finished outside the top 10 in that category among QBs, well below his historical 20+ point average from his first five seasons as a starter.
• Touchdown regression likely - His 26 passing touchdowns in 2024 matched his career low since becoming a starter, despite maintaining high passing volume and ranking third in pass attempts among all quarterbacks.
• Improved supporting cast - With all-world speedster Xavier Worthy heading into Year 2 and a potential full season of Marquise Brown, the ceiling is high for Kansas City's passing attack in 2025, plus the return of Rashee Rice from injury.
• Excellent value at QB6 - Being drafted with an 86.5 ADP behind five other quarterbacks represents a significant discount for a player who averaged 20+ fantasy points per game in five consecutive seasons before his recent decline.
• Target Mahomes in the seventh round - As a high-upside QB1 option with one of the safest floors in the position due to his volume and championship-caliber offensive system.