7 Fantasy Football Post-Hype Sleepers: April Superflex Best Ball

Apr 13, 2023

7 Post-Hype Sleepers: April Superflex Best Ball

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

In any fantasy football draft, it’s beneficial to take advantage of values that present themselves because of negative public perception. One way that value shows up is in the form of post-hype sleepers, players that were being drafted high last season only to see their ADP plummet after a down year.

Superflex best ball leagues are dominating the fantasy space this month and this will highlight players to target in those drafts before some seismic ADP shifts happen following the NFL Draft.

2022 positional ADP reflects the final ADP from Underdog Fantasy Best Ball Mania 3; 2023 positional ADP reflects the current ADP from Underdog Fantasy Superflex leagues

Quarterback

Russel Wilson, Denver Broncos

2022 ADP: QB9; 2023 ADP: QB17

After Russell Wilson was traded to Denver in 2022, the Broncos' offense became a trendy one to target in fantasy drafts. The Team 3 experiment fell flat in the Mile High City, though, with Russ posting career lows in almost every relevant statistical category.

While Denver’s offensive depth chart should remain largely unchanged going into 2023, the hope for the offense comes in the form of their new head coach, Sean Payton. In New Orleans, Payton’s teams ranked in the top 10 in total offense in 15 of 17 seasons, albeit with Drew Brees in his peak form. The bet here is that Payton can turn things around in Denver and that Wilson—one of the most efficient quarterbacks in history—had an outlier year rather than a fall off a cliff.

Running Back

D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

2022 ADP: RB10; 2023 ADP: RB22

In 2021, D'Andre Swift finished as the RB13 in half-PPR points per game and it was assumed that he would continue to ascend in an offense that would offer plenty of running back opportunity in 2022. The latter assumption was true as the Lions produced the most total running back fantasy points last season. With Jamaal Williams scoring 17 times, however, Swift finished as fantasy football’s RB22, which is where he is being drafted now.

Going into 2023, Swift will again be a part of a committee with David Montgomery, who I love as a zero-RB anchor. Swift’s risk is now baked into his price and his RB17 ranking at 4for4 suggests that there should be enough meat on the bone for him to outperform his ADP. In an offense that ran at the 11th-highest rate in neutral situations last season, it’s worth targeting the Lions backfield whenever possible in the middle rounds of April best ball drafts.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

2022 ADP: RB19; 2023 ADP: RB38

A.J. Dillon’s steady ADP rise in 2022 was as much a function of an especially dead running back dead zone as it was any real fantasy expectation. Either way, the public has clearly soured on the Packers' backfield (Aaron Jones’ positional ADP is down five spots from last year) heading into the 2023 fantasy season.

Given how unexciting Dillon’s 2022 season was, it probably surprises some fantasy players that he finished as a fringe RB2 with double-digit fantasy points in five of his final six games. There’s a chance that Green Bay’s offense is downright abysmal this season but with Aaron Rodgers all but gone and no clear number-one pass-catcher on the roster, the Packers could lean heavily on their backfield duo to carry their offense in 2023.

As 4for4’s RB30, there’s some belief that this can be a fruitful plan for Dillon and if Jones were to miss any time, Dillon would find himself in the league-winner conversation.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 ADP: WR9; 2023 ADP: WR35

As Mike Evans' ADP currently stands, he is only the fifth wide receiver in the last decade to finish as a top-15 half-PPR WR (points per game) one year and be drafted as the WR35 or lower the next. This is a gross overcorrection for the loss of Tom Brady when Evans and Chris Godwin should force a concentrated target share as they have done for years.

The dropoff in production that will come with Baker Mayfield at quarterback is accounted for in Evans’ ADP. His WR35 price is more than fair for a player that we can pencil in for 120+ targets.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

2022 ADP: WR11; 2023 ADP: WR29

There was no winning for the Colts' passing game last season and no one’s results suffered more than Michael Pittman’s. Prior to 2022, Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon called Pittman “the biggest riser” going into the season and “a true No. 1 wide receiver”. However, Matt Ryan’s struggles sank this offense but it was no mistake that Pittman still drew over 25% of his team’s targets last year.

That is the kind of target share to chase, even if we don’t know who will throw Pittman the ball in 2023. He profiles as a player with an elite skillset and that kind of wide receiver talent tends to overcome most negative circumstances.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

2022 ADP: WR15; 2023 ADP: WR44

It’s difficult to give a fair evaluation of the Broncos’ pass-catchers after Wilson’s performance last season, but Courtland Sutton was notably disappointing with just six games of 10+ half-PPR points and only one over 15 points. When Jerry Jeudy is healthy, Sutton seems to be the clear number two but as the 44th wide receiver off the board, it’s worth taking a stab at Sutton in drafts where you can cheaply pair him with Wilson and try to double-dip on a bounce-back from the Denver signal-caller.

Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills

2022 ADP: WR18; 2023 ADP: WR41

In large-field best ball tournaments, I want to take as many shots at elite offenses as possible, especially when there are players available on those teams at a deep discount. Hopes were sky-high for Gabe Davis heading into 2022 and while he didn’t live up to expectations, Davis did turn in a WR3 finish (WR27 overall, WR33 PPG).

One major hindrance to Davis’ performance was a high ankle sprain in Week 2 that lingered throughout the year. Unless the Bills add a top wide receiver prospect in the NFL Draft, Davis should easily hang on to his WR2 role opposite Stefon Diggs with arguably the best quarterback in the league throwing him the ball.