Week 11 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Bears Ground Falcons in Upset

Nov 16, 2022
Week 11 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks

With three spreads of a touchdown or more, a big cluster of close matchups, and four teams on a bye, picks may be a little tougher to decipher in Week 11. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

Editor’s Note: PoolGenius subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.

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Week 10 Recap

Upsets killed my Week 10 selections, with the exception of my one actual upset pick, Pittsburgh. The Steelers won along with the Dolphins, but the Cowboys, Bears, and Eagles all fell short, making my picks a brutal 2-3.

This brings my season-long tally to 31-19. Let’s move on to Week 11, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 11 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 11 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Baltimore Ravens vs. Panthers

A rested Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' defense against Baker Mayfield on the road leaves me no choice but to go with Baltimore this week. They are favored by 12 points, with PoolGenius odds currently set at 83% to win this contest.

Not many folks are picking Carolina this week (1.8%), so your pool will advance or go down with Baltimore.

Buffalo Bills vs. Browns

The Bills are coming off a rough patch and are in the perfect get-right spot at home against a Browns team that just received a 39-point beat down by Miami last week. Buffalo is an eight-point home favorite with Vegas win odds of 77%.

Public bettors are selecting the Bills 98% of the time so you’ll win or lose with almost everyone in your pool.

Value Favorites

New England Patriots vs. Jets

Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks and already met earlier this season, resulting in a New England win in Week 8. Zach Wilson threw three picks in that contest, and Bill Belichick will find a way to rattle him again this week. The Pats have won 13-straight in this series, and I’m expecting the same result on Sunday, with both offenses relying heavily on the run.

Vegas odds are currently at 62% for a Patriot win, with the spread at three points. Only 58% of the public is rolling with them, though, so there is solid value in taking New England.

New Orleans Saints vs. Rams

This game has coin-flip potential as both teams are playing poorly, but I’m giving the edge to the Saints' defense. They’ve been vulnerable to the run game in recent weeks, but the Rams can’t get anything going on the ground in 2022. LA may get Matthew Stafford back for this one but are down their best weapon in Cooper Kupp.

Despite being 4.5-point home favorites, public pickers are only riding with the Saints 60% of the time, making them an interesting choice in Week 11.

Upset Gamble

Chicago Bears @ Falcons

Chicago is a three-point road dog in this contest with just 40% PoolGenius win odds. Justin Fields is playing out of his mind right now and has rushed for 325 yards in his last two contests. Atlanta is yielding the most passing yards this season (280.1 per game) and the 11th-most yards on the ground (119.4 per game), so look for Fields to exploit both on Sunday afternoon.

Only 47% of the public is taking the upset here, so there’s opportunity for movement in your pools.

Survivor Picks for Week 11

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 11 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

  • Baltimore Ravens vs. Panthers (85%, 12-point favorites)
  • Buffalo Bills vs. Browns (77%, 8-point favorites)
  • San Francisco 49ers vs. Cardinals (76%, 8-point favorites)
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Chargers (73%, 6.5-point favorites)
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Colts (72%, 6.5-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 11 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):

  • Baltimore Ravens vs. Panthers (47%)
  • Buffalo Bills vs. Browns (16%)
  • San Francisco 49ers vs. Cardinals (9%)
  • Washington Commanders @ Texans (7%)
  • New York Giants vs. Lions (7%)

Future Value

The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 11, you won’t be able to use them later.

According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (6.9)
  • Buffalo Bills (6.6)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (6.1)
  • Dallas Cowboys (5.7)
  • San Francisco 49ers (5.1)

Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the PoolGenius Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.

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