Splash Sports Survivor Picks Week 4: Circa Survivor & NFL Pool Plays (Vikings over Dolphins)

Sep 30, 2026

Splash Sports Survivor Picks Week 4: (Vikings over Dolphins)

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

About a quarter of the field in the Splash Sports $21M Survivor World Championship got eliminated courtesy of Green Bay and Seattle last week, as the chalk choked for the second straight week. They are offering second-chance Week 3 contests, so get back in there if you were one of the casualties.

We have the assistance of Sharpstack's EV Tool to guide us through this process, highlighting the win percentages of each NFL team and the optimal path, plus the option of a custom one if you are feeling it.

There are now 29 teams left to choose from and plenty of overreactions from two weeks of play. So who should you believe in?

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Here's a look at the whole board for Week 4, and I'll get into my favorite picks and traps below.

Favorite Favorites

Vikings vs. Miami (-10.5)

Minnesota is one of two obvious options this week, as they are home favorites by 11.5 points with 78% win odds. Their future value isn't as high as some of the other top choices, and this is the best spot to use the Vikings against a Dolphins team averaging a mere 12 points per contest so far in 2026.

Ravens vs. Tennessee (-11.5)

The second of chalk picks, Baltimore is favored by one more point than Minnesota, with higher win odds (80.3%). The Ravens' future value is a bit higher than the Vikings as they have a few juicy matchups later in this season (ie., Week 16, Browns), so saving them is a viable option. Currently, the public is taking Baltimore 3% more of the time, but a massive chunk of pickers will be taking either of these top choices.

Value Favorite

Seahawks vs. Los Angeles (-7)

Seattle is the fifth-most-popular projected pick at only 3.4%, despite being favored by a touchdown against the Chargers. Their win percentage is sitting at a nice 69.8%, and they have Darnold back along wth the 12's as an added advantage at home. Most pickers likely still have the Seahawks available, but they do have a nice date with the Cardinals in Week 9 that could be worth saving for.

Traps (that are favorites)

Bears @ New York

I can see how this is tempting, but this game feels very trappy to me. The Bears are 2-1 and just beat Philly, while the Jets are at a rough 1-2 and have some fresh injuries. Caleb Williams is still doubtful with a hamstring injury, so it will likely be Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent under center, and New York has also been fairly close in both of their losses — 20-17 to Green Bay in overtime and 31-24 in Detroit.