Splash Sports Survivor Picks Week 3: Circa Survivor & NFL Pool Plays (49ers over Cardinals)

Sep 23, 2026

Splash Sports Survivor Picks Week 3: (49ers over Cardinals)

USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

A whopping 29.3% of the entries in the Splash Sports $21M Survivor World Championship got eliminated courtesy of Tampa Bay last week, as the chalk choked for the second straight week. They are offering second-chance Week 3 contests, so get back in there if you were one of the casualties.

We have the assistance of Sharpstack's EV Tool to guide us through this process, highlighting the win percentages of each NFL team and the optimal path, plus the option of a custom one if you are feeling it.

There are now 30 teams left to choose from and plenty of overreactions from two weeks of play. So who should you believe in?

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Here's a look at the whole board for Week 3, and I'll get into my favorite picks and traps below.

Favorite Favorites

49ers vs. Arizona (-8.5)

After the largest favorite on the slate going down two weeks in a row, I'm rolling with the second-largest spread this week. The 49ers are 2-0 and have looked solid thus far in 2026. Arizona played spoiler in Week 1 by knocking out the Chargers, then got trounced 31-7 at home by Seattle last week, and will be without cornerbacks Will Johnson and Garrett Williams, with Max Melton questionable as well. A thin secondary will not fare well against this San Francisco offense.

The 49ers do boast the second-highest future value but should be less popular, considering many pickers went with them last week.

Value Favorites

Lions vs. New York (-6.5)

Jared Goff and the Lions are at home coming off a rough loss to Buffalo. They are 69% favorites in this contest against a middling Jets team that will be sans safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The value here is that just 9% of the public is on Detroit, and they make for a safe September pick.

Saints vs. Raiders (-3)

This one may make some a bit squeamish, but it could pay off. The Saints are home for the first time in 2026, coming off a big win over the Ravens, facing a 2-0 Las Vegas team that isn't exactly a true representation of its record. Tyler Shough leads the league in passing yards, with Chris Olave boasting the second-most receiving yards among WRs, a combination the Raiders' defense will have trouble containing. This will likely be a shootout with New Orleans ending up on top. Less than 2% of pickers will take the Saints here.