DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 7

Oct 22, 2021
DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 7

In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 7. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.

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More Cash Game Strategy: FanDuel Breakdown | DraftKings Breakdown | Core Plays | WR/CB Matchups


FanDuel Week 7 Optimal Plays

Locks

Potential Build

Without Saquon Barkley the last two weeks, Devontae Booker ($5,800) has racked up 25 touches. The concern is he's only averaging about three yards per carry. The Panthers defense ranks second in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs and Booker likely won't fall into the end zone as they are allowing the fourth-fewest red zone trips per game. Josh Jacobs's ($6,900) production has been similar and is a bit pricier but the environment is much better. Teams are rushing at the second-highest rate against the Eagles and they are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game. The Raiders are also home favorites.

Jaylen Waddle ($5,900) is averaging eight targets per game and faces a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in aFPA to wide receivers. They are also allowing the fifth-most passing touchdowns per game. Another option in this price range is Devonta Smith ($5,800). Smith is averaging seven targets per game and last week was the first time he received less than six in a game. The concern for Smith is the Raiders have been much better against the pass at home than on the road. When playing at home they are allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game. For even less salary, there's Mecole Hardman ($5,400). The Titans are allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game and the sixth-highest passing yards per attempt. It's tough to trust Hardman's role in cash but the Titans and Chiefs game has the highest projected game total on the slate.

T.J. Hockenson ($6,200) has been quiet lately but he's still leading the Lions in target share and is second in market share of air yards. Teams are passing at the sixth-highest rate against the Rams and they are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. If Dallas Goedert ($5,900) is active, he will return to a huge role after Zach Ertz was traded to Arizona. Goedert and Ertz were combining for nearly 25% of the team's targets. The Raiders defense ranks 27th in aFPA to tight ends.

DraftKings Week 7 Optimal Plays

Locks

Potential Build

Lamar Jackson ($7,400) has scored the fourth-most fantasy points on DraftKings, despite a disappointing showing last week. Teams are running the ball at the sixth-lowest rate against the Bengals defense which means Lamar should need to put the ball in the air. Also, more dropbacks could lead to more running attempts for him. He's averaging 65 rushing yards per game this season. For a few hundred cheaper, Jalen Hurts ($6,900) stands out as our top value. Hurts lead the Eagles in rushes inside the red zone and have scored two fewer points than Jackson on DraftKings.

Cordarelle Patterson ($6,300) decided to dress up as Alvin Kamara for Halloween and has at least 58 receiving yards in four straight games. What's intriguing about Patterson is that the Falcons could decide to give him even more work. There's no way they could've imagined coming into the season that he would be their best player but he may be a full-time player coming out of the bye. A player we know will be the full-time option in their backfield is Darrell Henderson ($6,600). It looked like Sony Michel might start to eat off the plate a bit two weeks ago but Henderson was back up to 80% of the snaps last week. This week he gets the best possible matchup for running backs against the Lions. The Lions rank 32nd in aFPA and teams are running the ball against them 50% of the time, the highest rate in the league.

We mentioned the appeal with Mecole Hardman ($4,300) in the FanDuel section but he stands out as a top-six value on DraftKings, as well. Another option in this price range is Darnell Mooney ($4,600). There are some pass funnel defenses out there but with the Buccaneers, teams are throwing the ball against them nearly 75% of the time. It's no wonder they are surrending the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Allen Robinson is the Bears receiver that's popping in our breakout model but Mooney is receiving 29% of the targets in Justin Fields's starts. It is strange though that Robinson's average depth of target is twice as high as Mooney's over the last two weeks. Rashod Bateman ($3,400) made his debut last week, played 65% of the snaps and received six targets. Lamar Jackson threw for a season-low 167 yards in that game. I'm expecting more passing volume for the Ravens this week and the Bengals are allowing the 10th-most PPR points to wide receivers.

If you can make the salary work, Dallas Goedert ($4,600) stands out as a top value here as well. Over the last three weeks, Hunter Henry ($4,100) is second on the team in market share of targets and third in market share of air yards. He's also scored in every game. It's interesting that the Jets defense is allowing the second-most red zone trips but the lowest passing touchdown percentage. Perhaps that regresses towards the pass a bit. Averaging 99% of the snaps the last two weeks, Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,700) has totaled 15 targets. Teams are passing at the second-highest rate when playing against the Packers at home, likely a result of playing from behind. The Packers are also allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

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