Breakout Receiver Model: Week 6

Oct 13, 2021
 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 6

The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 6, and while the results from last week weren't quite as spectacular as a week ago, there were still some huge hits. Even more fun, this week, it appears we have a plethora of star players to recommend. Let's dig into the model's hits and misses, and check out the recommendations for the week ahead.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 5 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 5 XFP-Diff.
Chase Claypool PIT WR 17 21.5 4.5
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 15.3 21.5 6.2
Michael Pittman IND WR 13.7 17.9 4.2
Mark Andrews BAL TE 11.6 36.2 24.6
Kyle Pitts ATL TE 10 22.4 12.4
Evan Engram NYG TE 6.8 7.5 0.7

After missing Week 4 due to injury, Claypool was dominant against the Broncos' top-tier secondary in Week 5, gaining 130 yards receiving on just six targets, which included a dazzling leaping catch in the end zone. His 75 air yards was his second-lowest this season, and yet Claypool had his best fantasy performance to date. He now has back-to-back top-20 receiver performances in PPR leagues. In that same game, Courtland Sutton had his second monster game of the season, posting seven receptions for 120 yards, and adding a score of his own. The model also nailed breakouts for another pair of weapons playing in the same game, as both the RavensMark Andrews and Michael Pittman went absolutely nuclear on Monday Night, with Andrews scoring more fantasy points than any tight end has this season.

Misses

Week 5 Breakout Receiver Mode, Misses
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 5 XFP-Diff.
Odell Beckham CLE WR 15.3 3 -12.3
Jakobi Meyers NE WR 13 7.6 -5.4
Sammy Watkins BAL WR 11.6 4.5 -7.1
Nelson Agholor NE WR 11.5 4.7 -6.8
Robby Anderson CAR WR 10.6 4 -6.6
Marvin Jones JAX WR 10.5 3 -7.5
A.J. Brown TEN WR 10.4 5.3 -5.1
T.J. Hockenson DET TE 9.4 3.2 -6.2
Christian Kirk ARI WR 8.9 7.5 -1.4
Jalen Reagor PHI WR 8.7 3.9 -4.8
Elijah Moore NYJ WR 8.4 0 -8.4
Cameron Brate TB TE 7.2 1.7 -5.5
Robert Tonyan GB TE 6.7 1.3 -5.4

The model whiffed on Marvin Jones and A.J. Brown, who didn’t earn close to primary-wideout-esque opportunity in a Tennessee-Jacksonville game that was dominated solely by Derrick Henry. It had higher hopes for Robby Anderson and Jalen Reagor, who both watched their roles continue to shrivel during the matchup between the Panthers and Eagles. The Browns were too dominant on the ground to lean on Odell Beckham, but he’s now under-performing expectations by nearly 80% over the last three weeks.

And finally, things have been particularly rough on Jakobi Meyers. The man simply cannot score a touchdown. As our own John Paulsen uncovered this week, there are very few players in the history of football who have produced as much as Meyers without finding the end zone:

Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations

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