Top 5 Week 15 Matchups
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and now that we are past Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Week 15 Matchups
Tua Tagovailoa vs. New York Jets
I'm a big fan of the Dolphins as a whole this week but in terms of offense, Tua is a must-add for quarterback streamers or fantasy players dealing with an injury at the position. Tagovailoa faces the 32-ranked defense against QBs according to aFPA and the Jets are no higher than 30th against any position. Miami is also coming off a bye. Despite COVID-19 causing issues for the running back group, there is still time for one of their regular players to clear protocol. If not, wheels up on a pass-heavy game for Tua.
Patriots and Colts Defenses
Do not get cute this week with the Colts defense, and do not expect a ceiling week from the Patriots defense. New England and Indianapolis rank fourth and fifth respectively in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. Mac Jones gets to face a soft secondary, while Jonathan Taylor’s MVP-esque 2021 season should allow the Colts to use the run to establish their passing game. Wentz has zero exciting matchups to exploit, but having three tight end targets could help. New England is at their “worst” defending tight ends (7th in aFPA).
James Robinson vs. Houston Texans
I am all for failing Urban Meyer, but not at James Robinson’s expense. Robinson rushed for five more yards than you or I in Week 14, so congrats! This week is a get-right week for the Illinois State alum. The Houston Texans' defense as a whole is bad but is at their worst against running backs (25th). The Texans have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in four straight games and gave Rashaad Penny life in Week 14. Robinson was misused in their Week 1 matchup and if Trevor Lawrence has any say in Robinson’s usage, it should be a good week.
Allen Lazard @ Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens' secondary is riddled with injuries and now has to face Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. The good news is Allen Lazard is running as Rodgers’ second option and found the end zone Week 14. The Ravens are a pass-funnel defense and it is safe to expect Lazard to put up WR3 numbers. Should you be concerned that Adams has a Ja’Marr Chase-like performance, leaving nothing for the rest of the receivers? Not really. In that Week 7 game, Tee Higgins put up a 7-62-0 line. Baltimore has been beaten by lesser teams, too. The Bears had two (two!) 100-yard receivers in Week 11, and three Dolphins wideouts had at least four receptions and 64 yards receiving Week 10.
Austin Hooper vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller’s status for this Saturday game is the bigger story, but Austin Hooper’s juicy matchup is what can be counted on. Hooper has seven targets in two of his last three games and has played at least 90% of snaps the past two with injuries and COVID depleting the Browns' tight end room. The Raiders shut down Travis Kelce in Week 14 but let him run wild in Week 10. Vegas also allowed Logan Thomas and John Bates to top 40 receiving yards Week 13 and allowed Dalton Schultz and Sean McKeon (who?) to score in Week 12. It has been a dreadful middle and now end to the season for the Raiders defense that is short multiple players with injuries.
