NFL Week 14: Weekend Specials Bets
Week 13 Recap: We finally booked our first hit since officially writing for 4for4. Jonathan Taylor’s 143 rushing yards paced the day last Sunday (he was listed as an honorable mention).
If we look at some of the other plays, it was encouraging to feel good about the process of the plays.
Joe Burrow had 300 passing yards but had a potential 71-yard TD to Ja'Marr Chase dropped that ended up being a pick. If that were to hit not only would Burrow have been right in the running, but Chase would’ve had a much better stat line.
Darrell Henderson was active but didn’t play a snap. In his place, Sony Michel rushed for 121 yards against the Jaguars.
Javonte Williams had 102 yards rushing against the Chiefs in a nice starting debut.
Mike Evans had a solid day with 99 yards receiving, but it was his counterpart in Chris Godwin who had a big game with 143 yards on 17 targets.
Without Jalen Hurts, it was another dud for DeVonta Smith, as he saw only four targets on the day finishing with 15 yards.
Elijah Mitchell saw 22 carries but parlayed that to a measly 66 yards on the ground.
Week 14 Overview
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This is another week where it seems like we can take advantage of mispriced lines and I'm hoping we can finally hit on one of our long-shot plays. We don't know how long these lines are going to be available to us on a weekly basis before the market gets more efficient, but it's best to take advantage now while we can.
Notable Contenders Who Don’t Qualify
Quarterbacks:
Rushers:
Receivers:
Week 14 Weekend Specials Bets
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Dak Prescott Most Passing Yards on Sunday (+1400 FanDuel)
This is one of the best values I’ve seen all year. When doing our research, no quarterback popped more in these ceiling games than Dak Prescott. So it’s quite peculiar to see him priced at this line.
What makes the pricing even odder is that the matchup is incredible—Washington is currently ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
Amari Cooper is expected to ball in full health this week and there look to be no limitations on him.
I’m loving this price as there might not be a better value play at QB the rest of the year.
Risk: .5 units on FanDuel to win 7 units. (Playable to +850)
Stefon Diggs Most Receiving Yards on Sunday (+3000 FanDuel)
In what lines up for a smash spot for Stefon Diggs, the market seems to have weirdly mispriced him this week. I have yet to see Diggs priced anywhere below +2000 this year to lead each week in receiving yards.
We have Diggs projected for the second-most receiving yards of any WR on the Sunday slate, but yet, he is priced with the 16th-highest odds.
For reference, Diggs is priced at +1000 on DraftKings.
Tampa Bay has the fourth-most passing attempts against them this year and a matchup that currently has the highest over/under on the slate should create plenty of opportunities for Diggs to have a big game.
Risk .25 units on FanDuel to win 7.5 units. (Playable to +2200)
Mike Evans Most Receiving Yards on Sunday (+5000 FanDuel)
By my count, this is four straight weeks now we are targeting Mike Evans.
The matchup is pretty bad as the Bills are first in pass defense DVOA, but this has a chance to be a shootout and Tre'Davious White is now out, which that ranking likely isn’t predictive of their future output now.
Evans is projected for the 11th-most receiving yards on the slate. He was second amongst all WRs in the study in the ceiling over median games during our research.
The underlying metrics are there for him: fifth in air yards and seventh in unrealized air yards. I love this price again for an undervalued WR on the market.
Risk .15 units on FanDuel to win 7.5 units. (Playable to +3000)
Mike Williams Most Receiving Yards on Sunday (+4800 FanDuel)
Mike Williams has been utilized more in the passing game recently with two of his past three games with 90+ receiving yards.
Keenan Allen is on the COVID-19 list and has a chance to miss the game on Sunday, which would be a massive boost for Williams. Yes, Williams is currently on the COVID-19 list as well, but he has been deemed a close contact. Negative tests leading up to game day would make him eligible to play on Sunday.
Williams was projected for the sixth-most receiving yards on the slate before being put on the COVID-19 list, which encapsulated his potential upside with Keenan Allen out.
We’ve seen Williams hit a ceiling game with 165 yards earlier this year. The matchup isn’t amazing as the Giants are eighth in pass defense DVOA, but Williams has the talent and ability to make this happen given the requisite volume.
Risk: .1 units on FanDuel to win 4.8 units. (Playable to +4200 if Keenan Allen plays and +2200 if Keenan Allen misses)
Julio Jones Most Receiving Yards on Sunday (+5000 FanDuel)
Julio Jones looks primed to be back this week. If he doesn’t play this bet will void.
Despite Jones's lack of production this year, he’s still had elite efficiency referenced by his 2.47 yards per route run. With A.J. Brown out this will likely help Jones's target volume to reach this.
The Jaguars are 31st in pass defense DVOA this year, according to Football Outsiders. This is a smash spot for Julio Jones with the Titans desperately needing weapons.
Jones had the second-highest percentage of ceiling games in our sample (7.9%). Based on this, his implied odds for these specials should be closer to +2500 on a neutral matchup.
We’re getting a heavy discount on him due to recency bias in the best matchup he will see all year with minimal target competition.
Risk: .15 units on FanDuel to win 7.5 units (Playable to +3000)
The Following Plays were also made in Discord:
- Darnell Mooney Most Receiving Yards on Sunday (+5500 FanDuel)
- Elijah Mitchell Most Rushing Yards on Sunday (+1300 DraftKings, status for Sunday is up in the air)
Let’s run hot this week and make some money.
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