Week 10 PrizePicks Props

Nov 12, 2021
Week 10 PrizePicks Props

Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost.

Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.

Week 9 Record: 6-1

Season Record: 41-26

Brandin Cooks did not reach 63.5 yards, but beyond that, we were golden in Week 9. Hopefully, a couple of stacks worked out for you based on Week 9.

Week 10 Picks

Taylor Heinicke Under 18.0 Fantasy Points

  • 4for4 Projection: 16.3

Taylor Heinicke can have a good game without topping 18 fantasy points. His penchant to pick up yards with his legs gives him a floor but he averages 1.26 combined turnovers per game (interceptions and fumbles). I also believe Bucs HC Bruce Arians is going to dare him to throw the ball and let the Tampa front four get after him. Tampa is 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks, but it is buoyed by elite performances from Jalen Hurts (25.0 fantasy points), Matthew Stafford (29.5) and Dak Prescott (27.4). The Bucs have not allowed 17+ fantasy points to any other quarterback.

Dan Arnold Over 8.5 Fantasy Points

  • 4for4 Projection: 10.8

Dan Arnold is one of the better PrizePicks props to target using fantasy points. He gets an Indianapolis Colts defense ranked 32nd in aFPA against tight ends entering Week 10. The Colts allow 15.2 PPR points per game to the position. Arnold has at least 10.0 PPR points in three of five games as a Jaguar and is averaging 5.33 targets per game since joining the team. Arnold has also played at least 57% of the snaps over the past four games and is the unquestioned No. 1 TE on the team. Only Jamal Agnew has a higher target rate on the team since Arnold was acquired.

Carson Wentz Over 230.5 Passing Yards

  • 4for4 Projection: 269.2

The Jaguars' defense is okay and the offense has a chance to put up points against the Colts. That means Sunday will not just be the Jonathan Taylor Show. Carson Wentz should be getting T.Y. Hilton back from a concussion, has two excellent pass-catching backs and gazes lovingly at Michael Pittman Jr. weekly. Wentz has at least 231 passing yards the past two games with both games being at home. Jacksonville is coming to downtown Indianapolis Sunday so weather will not be a factor. Wentz has topped 230 passing yards in four of five games at home.

Mike Davis Under 34.5 Rushing Yards

  • 4for4 Projection: 36.3

Mike Davis has been a fantasy disappointment, to be kind. He has topped 34 rushing yards once and he has not had double-digit carries in the three games since Atlanta’s bye week. Teams using two backs have rarely seen both produce against the Cowboys in 2021. Only one running back has topped 34 rushing yards as the secondary option, and that was Melvin Gordon last week. Cordarrelle Patterson is the lead back in both phases of the offense, making Davis an afterthought.

Ezekiel Elliott Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

  • 4for4 Projection: 81.2

The Falcons' defense has been better of late, putting more of an emphasis on the running game. Ezekiel Elliott may be the best pure runner the Falcons have seen to this point. Atlanta has only allowed three backs to top 65 yards individually and allow 92.13 yards on the ground per game. Elliott has topped 65 yards five times, but it has been two games since he last eclipsed that yard marker. I expect the Cowboys to feed him to give the offensive line some confidence after last week’s moon-pounding at the hands of the Broncos defense.

Dalton Schultz Under 4.5 Receptions

  • 4for4 Projection: 4.5

Dalton Schultz’s role is secure with Blake Jarwin an afterthought and on I.R., but I have concern some of his production goes away with Michael Gallup returning. Beyond Gallup, Schultz has not topped four catches in Dallas’ past two games and Atlanta has allowed one tight end to catch 5+ passes in a game. I think PrizePicks set a great prop with this one, but I expect Schultz to fall short.

Mike Evans Over 65.5 Receiving Yards

  • 4for4 Projection: 85.3

Chris Godwin is trending toward not playing, which means Mike Evans will be the unquestioned wide receiver target for Tom Brady against one of the worst secondaries in football. Washington will be without Benjamin St-Juste, a rookie cornerback who has arguably been their best CB. Washington's defense has allowed at least one wideout to top 65 yards in seven of eight games, and 10 overall.

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