Sunday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Bears at Rams

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Sunday Night Football is finally here, and it is projected to be a very lopsided one. The Chicago Bears are eight-point underdogs on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. Vegas has this game scoring just 4.5 more points than the Denver Broncos on the road against the New York Giants with a 46.5 point total. Lineup construction on DraftKings is very different from FanDuel because of the 1.5x MVP salary and defenses being a part of the slate.

The way you should be constructing your lineup is by telling a story within the game itself, and if you look into each game, you can see that. The Thursday Night Game is a perfect example of what storytelling on a lineup can do for you. Tom Brady looked to attack rookie linebacker Micah Parsons in any matchup over the middle of the field, and then in Dan Quinn’s cover, three defense use Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin to find holes in the zone. Assuming the Cowboys were going to be trailing, you could end up getting Ceedee Lamb, and Amari Cooper had you played Gronkowski at the captain spot. Now for this game, I will tell how this story will play out through my eyes and my process.

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More Single-Game Breakdowns: Yahoo!

Vegas Lines

Over Under: 46.5

Bears Implied Total: 19.25

Rams Implied Total: 27.25

The first thing this betting line tells me is that the Rams offense will be the most talked-about group in my piece and that this one could get pretty ugly for the NFL standards. The Bears offensively will most likely be playing from behind, so the pass-catching options will be what we are looking for on their side of the ball. This shouldn’t be a high-scoring game, so on DraftKings, the Rams defense is very much in play.

Los Angeles Rams Scenarios

Passing Offense

The Rams made the big move in the offseason to acquire Matthew Stafford, and it gives this offense a chance to be drastically different than when Jared Goff was under center. This opens the door for more down-the-field opportunities for the Sean McVay offense. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp will headline the receiver room, but the third player in this offense could be a rotation to begin the year between DeSean Jackson, Tutu Atwell, and Van Jefferson. The tight end room will be Tyler Higbee and then preseason standout, Jacob Harris. Kupp and Woods will surely be 1a, 1b in target share, but I expect Jefferson to get the first crack at being the third wide receiver in this offense and be my cheap play for Week 1 showdown on DraftKings.

Rushing Offense

Losing Cam Akers for the season was a significant loss and forced the hand to trade for former Patriots running back Sony Michel. I expect Darrell Henderson to get most of the work, but Sony Michel will also get some goal-line looks. I don’t expect anybody else to run the ball, and this offense is more pass-happy than in recent years.

Chicago Bears Scenarios

Passing Offense

This offensive line is awful and will be a big concern in this game, which is why I have no interest in rostering either Bears quarterback. Andy Dalton will struggle in this one, and I expect there to be pressure to sub in Justin Fields during halftime. The pass-catching options are what I am looking at most, with Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Jimmy Graham, and Cole Kmet being the four to break down.

Rushing Offense

With new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coming over to coach this star-loaded Rams defense, I expect him to hold this rushing attack in check. David Montgomery is a good running back but will not have the positive game script nor blocking to have a great fantasy day. I am intrigued to see how much Damien Williams ends up getting utilized because with no Tarik Cohen—these backup running backs could eat a little more into David Montgomery’s role than anticipated.

Captian/MVP Picks

Matthew Stafford ($17,400 DK/$16,000 FD)

He is my favorite captain selection for this slate because I believe this offense will spread the ball around. I am pairing a Stafford captain with at minimum two pass catchers for this Rams offense, and on DraftKings, I believe three pass-catchers could be optimal.

Allen Robinson ($15,300 DK/$11,500 FD)

I am not afraid of the Jalen Ramsey coverage limiting Robinson from having a good enough game for fantasy relevance in this one. Against Ramsey isn't the best spot to play Robinson as the captain, but I expect the Bears to be down early, and Robinson will see 10+ targets.

Darrell Henderson ($11,400 DK/$12,500 FD)

There is the possibility that Stafford leads them down the field, but Henderson is the player who punches it in. With how amazing this passing attack for the Rams will be, it could lead to a lot lighter boxes and McVay calling more running plays in the red zone.

Flex/AnyFlex Plays

Robert Woods ($9,000 DK/$12,000 FD)

I'm not too fond of Woods as a captain play because of the spread targets I am projecting, but he is in play to have a good day through the air. The Bears' defense has lost some pieces and hasn't looked very good in the preseason.

Cooper Kupp ($8,800 DK/$11,000 FD)

For similar reasons to Woods, Kupp is just a flex play rather than a 1.5x play. I am planning on taking Stafford as the captain, one of Woods or Kupp, and then the cheaper Rams wide receivers at the bottom.

Rams Defense ($7,400 DK)

This is only a DraftKings play, but it's a DraftKings lock. This Bears' offensive line is going to get eaten alive by Aaron Donald and company.

Darnell Mooney ($5,600 DK/$10,000 FD)

The one highlight that plays over and over is Mooney's double move on Ramsey. I expect Mooney to be in play and get a ton of targets as the Bears are trying to come back.

Sony Michel ($4,800 DK/$9,500 FD)

He is going to get some red zone carries and more so spell Henderson than be a big part of the game plan. I do not want to play Henderson in the same lineups as Michel, but I am not against it with the Matt Stafford MVP lineups.

Matt Gay ($3,600 DK/$9,000 FD)

I do not think Matt Gay will have a lot of trust with McVay, but kickers are always in play for showdown slates.

DeSean Jackson ($1,400 DK/$7,000 FD)

Jackson is always one play away, and I am very interested to see the connection with Stafford in Week 1. The depth charts and expectation will be Van Jefferson getting the first chance at the WR3 role, but to leave Jackson out of the showdown game pool would be foolish.

Van Jefferson ($800 DK/$7,500 FD)

My favorite play for Week 1's Sunday Night Showdown will be Jefferson. He was disappointing in his rookie season, but I am giving him the benefit of the doubt coming off a broken foot after a COVID offseason. I have seen some videos of Stafford connecting with him surface on Twitter, but there's leverage to be had here.

Jacob Harris ($200 DK/$5,000 FD)

Harris is a perfect flex punt on FanDuel that allows you to construct whatever lineup you want. I don't think Jacob Harris receives more than two targets, but if he does find the end zone, he could be on the optimal lineup.