Week 7 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props
Week 6 Recap: We had another profitable week going 9-6 (60%) for +2.45 units last week. There weren’t too many tilting losses but Michael Gallup’s receiving yards going under 41 was pretty shocking. He turned six targets into just 23 yards, getting open multiple times downfield but Andy Dalton just missed him. A week after getting benched in the first half, Jimmy Garoppolo brought his A-game against the Rams, throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. On the bright side, we won our fourth David Johnson receiving prop of the season—the third with plus odds. Deshaun Watson isn’t a check-down quarterback and even though David Johnson is frequently open underneath, Watson prefers to either run it himself or launch it downfield to one of his speedy playmakers. If oddsmakers want to keep offering David Johnson’s reception line at 2.5 or more, I’ll keep riding the under.
I’ll say it pretty much every week but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my plays on island games. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. This week we grabbed Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards over at 72.5 (-112). By the time I’m publishing this, it’s already at 78.5 on DraftKings and higher in other spots. DK Metcalf’s receiving yards have been juiced to -134, an extra 20 cents of juice compared to what we grabbed. We also hit Alvin Kamara’s receiving yards at 57.5 on FanDuel—it’s now at 64.5. Alright, enough blabbering about closing line value. Let’s move on to Week 7...
Week 7 FanDuel Player Prop Bets
Giovani Bernard Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Joe Mixon officially ruled out, Giovani Bernard figures to be the starter against the Browns this week. You’ll probably see a lot of splits that cite Bernard's gaudy stats when Mixon was out in 2018. The issue is, it’s a different coaching staff now and they have a capable–but unknown–backup in Trayveon Williams. We have no idea what the workload split will be but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a near 50-50 split in early-down carries with Gio dominating touches on passing downs. The last time the Bengals played the Browns, Mixon could only muster 46 rushing yards on 16 carries, which bodes well for this bet even if Bernard does wind up getting 15+ carries. We have him projected for 43.0 rushing yards and I would bet this down to 45.
Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit
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