Top Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel: Week 4

Oct 01, 2020
Top Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel: Week 4

Stacking players is a stairway to the top of daily fantasy tournaments, maximizing upside by creating the sort of volatility that can help your roster post a crooked score—one way or another.

Below are some of the most intriguing stacking plays I found while sifting through the week's matchups. Most of these options will leave room for high-ceiling studs. The goal, naturally, is to get a lot for a little. So let's get into it.

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Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - O/U 49

QB Joe Burrow, Bengals ($7,400 FD/$6,300 DK)

WR Tyler Boyd, Bengals ($6,000 FD/$6,100 DK)

RB James Robinson, Jaguars ($6,600 FD/$6,500 DK)

This game started with an over-under of 45.5 points, which now sits at a tasty 49. The matchup pits the league’s worst pass defense (the Jags) against the league’s worst rush defense (the Bengals) so I’m not sure why it was ever as low as 45.5 points. Anyway, there will be points.

Quarterbacks are completing 80% of their passes against Jacksonville’s shoddy secondary. That’s an astounding figure. Even better for Burrow this week, the Jaguars’ front seven isn’t pressuring anyone through three weeks, registering a 3.2% sack rate. Burrow, who’s been pressured on 32% of his dropbacks—the 12th highest rate—should finally have time to operate in the pocket in Week 4. The results, judging from the numbers put up by other signal-callers to face the abysmal Jacksonville defense, should not be hateful. Philip Rivers managed 22.5 fantasy points against these Jags in Week 1; Ryan Tannehill went for 29.5 points in Week 2, and Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 25.3 points thanks to a rushing score and two passing touchdowns. Burrow’s Week 4 ceiling, per 4for4’s floor/ceiling projection tool, is a smidge less than Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. The rookie will probably have a fair bit of ownership in cash games, though I’m not sure he’ll be widely deployed in tournaments this week.

The aforementioned horrendous Jacksonville defense includes cornerback D.J. Hayden, who has been torched by slot receivers this season. Wideouts in the slot facing off against Hayden have caught 12 of 14 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown. Adam Humphries scored 16 fantasy points running from the slot against the Jags in Week 2. The week prior, Parris Campbell caught six balls for 71 yards from the slot against the Jaguars. Enter Tyler Boyd, who has run 80.2% of his routes from the slot this season. He’s seen 20 targets from the slot, the second most in the NFL. The recipient of 21 targets over the past two games, Boyd’s DFS price predictably jumped in Week 4. I still think he’s appealing on the full PPR DraftKings slate as the 17th highest priced receiver. If this game becomes a back-and-forth shootout, Boyd (and Burrow) could post gaudy stat lines.

Running it back with a running back on the underdog road team may seem peculiar. And yes, it’s not my favorite process. Here’s the thing though: James Robinson has 31% of the Jaguars’ total opportunity (rushes plus targets)—the 11th highest mark in the NFL among backs. He showed last week that he can stay involved even when the team faces terrible game script. Robinson saw six targets of 15 pass routes against the Dolphins in Week 3, which probably means two things: his target-per-route rate will drop in the coming weeks and Gardner Minshew trusts him as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. While Chris Thompson, who ran more pass routes than Robinson against Miami, could throw a wrench in our game stack, Jacksonville’s offense doesn’t have a target hog wideout who profiles as a no-brainer run back option against the Bengals. D.J. Chark, who could be back this week, was fourth in wideout targets before missing Week 3 with a chest injury. Last week’s return of Dede Westbrook added further uncertainty to the team’s wide receiver rotation. That leaves Robinson as the only reliable fantasy option getting consistent touches in the Jaguars offense.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins - O/U 52.5

QB Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($9,000 FD/$7,800 DK)

WR Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($7,500 FD/$7,000 DK)

WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,900 FD/$6,800 DK)

TE Mike Gesicki, Dolphins ($5,700 FD/$5,100 DK)

You can get galaxy brained with stacking this game between two heinous defenses and two quarterbacks who are going to let it fly early and often. I wanted to keep it simple, stupid, and run with the Seattle double stack because so rarely do we get a high powered offense with such a concentrated target distribution. We know where the ball is going when Russell Wilson drops back. That’s a luxury.

On pace for 75 touchdowns, there’s no reason to think Wilson is going to cool off this week against Miami’s defense. The Dolphins are allowing a 71.8% completion rate (fourth worst) and 11.6 yards per completion (fifth worst) through three weeks. In Week 3, Gardner Minshew struggled mightily against these Dolphins and finished with 275 yards. Close your eyes, forget the sky-high price tag, and get Wilson into your tournament lineups this week against a banged-up Dolphins secondary.

While Jaguars receivers did nothing against Miami, Bills wideouts had their way against the Dolphins in Week 2, posting 16 catches on 29 targets. Metcalf and Lockett’s combined DFS price point is getting hard to stomach; this may be the last chance we can build a viable lineup with Wilson and his top two targets. Lockett and Metcalf through three weeks have combined to vacuum up 52% of Seattle’s targets (30% of Lockett and 22% for Metcalf). Metcalf remains the big-play threat. He has 47.3% of the team’s air yards—the fourth most in the NFL among receivers—and the third most total air yards, behind only A.J. Green and Calvin Ridley.

Thanks largely to DeVante Parker’s forever-tweaked hamstring, it’s hard to figure out who among Miami’s wideouts is going to see a decent share of the weekly targets. Parker leads the group with an 18% target share; Isaiah Ford is second with 16%; Preston Williams is third with 15%. It’s not ideal. That’s why Gesicki might be the best run-back play against the Seahawks in Week 4. He’s seen 20% of the Dolphins’ targets even after a slow Week 3 in which Ryan Fitzpatrick targeted his tight end just three times. In runaway negative game script, like the Dolphins could see against Seattle’s new air raid attack, Gesicki could be the primary beneficiary of a sped-up, pass-heavy Miami offense.

Gesicki functions as a big wideout for the Dolphins, running 78.8% of his routes from the slot and getting almost all of his targets that way. Meanwhile, Seattle cornerback Ugo Amadi has been burned in slot coverage this season. Amadi has been targeted 16 times, allowing 11 receptions for a nice 69 yards. Another Seahawks slot corner, Marquise Blair, has seen seven of eight targets against him completed for 92 yards and a touchdown. It’s a matchup that overwhelmingly favors Gesicki and one that could matter a whole lot for fantasy purposes if (when) the Dolphins face a deficit in Week 4.

Cleveland Browns (-4.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - O/U 56

QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($8,200 FD/$7,200 DK)

TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($4,900 FD/$4,300 DK)

RB Kareem Hunt, Browns ($5,900 FD/$6,200 DK)

The idea here, simply put, is to take advantage of the Browns’ main defensive weakness while banking on negative game script usage for an excellent pass-catching running back in a game with a wonderfully inflated over-under.

The glaringly obvious deficiencies of the Dallas defense mean Prescott and the Cowboys offense will have to keep its proverbial foot on the proverbial gas all season. Hair-on-fire shootouts will be the norm for much of this season in Dallas. That’s why the Cowboys average a league-high 76.7 offensive plays per game. Prescott, with 922 passing yards and four touchdown tosses over the past two weeks, has a mouth-watering ceiling against Cleveland. Only eight teams have allowed more passing yardage than the Browns.

Schultz this week gets one of the best tight end matchups we could ask for. With 16 targets (16% of the Cowboys’ target share) over his two games as a starter, Schultz squares off against a Cleveland defense allowing 26% of targets go to tight ends—the fifth-highest rate in the league. That’s 31 tight end targets over three weeks. Only the Saints and Falcons have allowed more tight end receptions than the Browns.

The Browns have struggled to fill injury gaps at safety and linebacker, leaving backups and special team players to cover enemy tight ends. Cleveland’s defense has had particular trouble against pass catchers in the slot (hello CeeDee Lamb), and Schultz has more slot targets over the past two weeks than all but three tight ends. Reasonably priced on both sites, Schultz could have a day against the Browns.

Last season, we saw the Browns’ offense operate plenty in negative game script. Kareem Hunt almost always emerged as the top back in those situations, playing more snaps than Nick Chubb and running more routes. Hunt has 11 targets to Chubb’s three targets through three weeks. The backs’ total opportunity (rushes plus targets) is shockingly close: Chubb has 31% while Hunt has 28%. Hunt, $800 cheaper on DraftKings (and its full PPR scoring) with a projected ceiling of 0.8 points below Chubb, is the play in what looks to be a high scoring game that could feature plenty of passing.

Chubb would make for the more logical play if you like the Browns to outperform the spread and seize game script against Dallas. Hunt missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury. If he were to miss this week's game, Chubb would probably absorb most of the backfield targets, making him a perfect player to stack alongside Prescott and a Dallas pass-catcher or two.

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