Wide Receiver Sleepers, Values and Targets

Aug 31, 2020
Wide Receiver Sleepers, Values and Targets


Updated 8/31

I’d argue that the receiver position is more affected by the scoring system (PPR vs. standard) and roster settings (two WRs vs. three-plus WRs) than any other position. Take the top 24 players in Relative Value in two different formats:

In a top-200 rankings list for a 12-team standard-scoring league with a 1/2/2/1 roster, two WRs are in the top 24.

In a top-200 rankings list for a 12-team PPR league with a 1/2/3/1 roster, seven receivers WRs are in the top 24.

My point? Be sure that you enter your league’s settings into the 4for4 customizable tools to ensure that you have an understanding of how scoring affects positional value in your particular league. It may affect the way you want to approach your draft.


More Sleepers, Values and Targets from John: TE | QB | RB


Note: It’s important to remember that our Top 200 rankings are derived via a formula and do not necessarily represent the optimal way to approach any given draft. We’re confident that owners who draft straight from the custom Top 200 rankings will field a competitive team, but there are other factors (positional dependability, using ADP to your advantage, etc.) that can help owners gain an extra edge and win their league. Be sure to read our ongoing and upcoming draft strategy articles; they should help you formulate a strategy for your specific draft(s).

Below are four sections:

  • Values (4th–9th round)
  • Sleepers (10th–15th round)
  • Deep Sleepers (16th round or later)
  • Targets (players I’m actively trying to get in every draft)

Note: Players indicated with a ^ were added/modified after initial publication.

Values

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Lockett finished No. 14 last year (half-PPR) after a No. 15 finish the year before. Despite the arrival of DK Metcalf, Lockett’s targets rose from 70 to 110 year-over-year. In two postseason games he turned 18 targets into 13 catches for 198 yards and a touchdown, including 9-136-1 against the Packers. Most of the offseason focus has been on Metcalf’s potential, but Lockett is a speedster and a great route-runner, and he should continue to produce regardless of Metcalf’s growth. The only minor concern I have is the rumored interest that the Seahawks have in Antonio Brown, who will disrupt any passing game that he may join.

Keenan Allen, Chargers

Allen finished as the No. 6 PPR WR last year but lost his quarterback. If Tyrod Taylor is indeed the starter in 2020, then the size of the overall passing game pie is going to decrease. As a starter in 2015 and 2016 (in Buffalo), Taylor’s passing game was roughly 26% lower (from a fantasy points standpoint) than the Chargers’ passing game under Philip Rivers in 2019. Allen’s market share is going to have to increase significantly if he is going to maintain WR1 or even high-end WR2 fantasy status. The market seems to recognize this as he’s going off the board as a WR2/WR3. He’s a solid value in the fifth round. Update (8/31): Allen is even more appealing with the injury to Mike Williams. He might average double-digit targets in September.

Stefon Diggs, Bills

The run-heavy Bills actually attempted 47 more passes than the even run-heavier Vikings last year, though the Vikings completed 20 more passes than the Bills, so it's debatable what this trade does for Diggs' fantasy value. It certainly looks like a downgrade given the probable downgrade at quarterback and wintry late-season conditions in Buffalo. However, if the trade is a signal that the Bills want to throw the ball more, Diggs could actually see more targets than he saw last season (92). From a pure talent standpoint, it’s hard to beat Diggs in the fifth/sixth, though receivers who change teams typically produce less than the previous year unless they see a clear upgrade in role or at quarterback. Diggs might get off to a slow start, but should pay dividends given his depressed ADP.

DeVante Parker, Dolphins

Continue reading for 4 more values, 9 sleepers, 6 deep sleepers and eleven WRs John is targeting in every draft!

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