DFS Wide Receiver Strategy: FanDuel 2015 Year in Review

FanDuel has no flex position, so you have to choose more WRs than any other position in your lineup. As you'll soon see, you should be willing to spend liberally on the position.

I compiled data on the performance of WRs on FanDuel relative to their salary in 2015 to see what we can learn and apply going forward.

I broke salaries down into $500 increments and looked at points scored per $1,000 of salary, percentage of time reaching cash game value, and percentage of time reaching tournament value. I also took a look at how each individual WR performed.

I analyzed 828 WR games from 2015 (every game where a WR had a salary and was projected for 8.0 FanDuel points or more by 4for4). The WR data will be compared across salary ranges and across positions.

The data will be laid out below and followed up with some key takeaways, and then I'll sum up the actionable takeaways at the end of the article.

Note: The sample sizes for each salary tier can be found in the appendix at the end of the article.

Salary vs. Performance

• QBs tend to score more points per dollar than other positions, so the real comparison here is between WRs and RBs. At the higher salary tiers, WRs are much more plentiful than RBs -- there were 219 instances of a WR priced at $7,500 or above, compared to just 131 RBs. WRs provided a greater ROI than RBs at every single salary tier from $7,500 and above.
• WRs provided less of an ROI than RBs in the $6,000-$7,400 range. WRs in this tier are generally inconsistent No. 2 WRs, while RBs in this tier can often be backups stepping in for injured or benched starters.

Cash Game Value

Scores needed to finish in the money will vary by week, but generally, if your lineup scores two points per $1,000, you'll reach 120 points, which is usually sufficient to place in a 50/50 league or win just over half of your head-to-heads.

• Again we see that WRs are generally better cash game plays than RBs at salaries above $7,500, although RBs did have a slight edge in the $8,500-$8,900 tier.
• There were 34 WRs who were priced at $9,000 or more in 2015, compared to just 14 RBs. These WRs paid dividends in cash games, while the RBs did not. In fact, WRs above $9,000 were pretty much the best cash game play you could make (RBs in the $4,500-$4,900 tier had a slightly higher percentage of success, but there were only 12 of such RBs all season).
• There were 288 WRs who hit 2x value in 2015, or 16.9 per week.

Of the 288 WRs who hit 2x value:

• the average spread was 0.88 (in contrast to QBs and RBs, who are favorites on average), the average over/under was 45.4, and the average team total was 22.3.
• 48.3 percent were at home and 43.1 percent were favorites, and 29.9 percent had team totals of 24 and above. WRs also contrasted from QBs in RBs in that more than half of their 2x games came as underdogs and on the road.
• the average receiving line was 6.8 receptions, 102.9 yards, and 1.0 TDs.
• 81.9 percent had at least five catches, 51.0 percent reached 100 yards, and 76.3 percent scored at least one TD (which is unsurprisingly higher than on the full-PPR and three-point yardage bonus site DraftKings, where 69.0 percent of WRs to hit cash game value needed at least one TD to do so).

Tournament Value

You're generally looking to score at least 180 points to place highly in a tournament, and you are likely to need at least 200 points to win. If your lineup scores three points per $1,000, you'll have a score of 180, which is the value point I will use to examine tournament performance:

• The data here shows why it's important to pay up for WR over RB in tournaments -- WRs simply have more top-end upside than RBs. WRs scored three or more points per $1,000 at every salary tier from $7,500 and above.
• There were 115 WRs who hit 3x value in 2015, or 6.8 per week.

Of the 115 WRs who hit 3x value:

• the average spread was 0.50, the average over/under was 45.2, and the average team total was 22.3.
• 51.3 percent were at home, 43.4 percent were favorites, and 28.7 percent had a team total of 24 or more.
• the average receiving line was 7.7 receptions, 120.8 yards, and 1.4 TDs.
• 93.9 percent had at least five catches, 66.1 percent reached 100 yards, 93.0 percent had at least one TD, and 42.6 percent had multiple TDs.

Individual WR Value

• The top of the list consists mainly of No. 1 WRs who were undervalued in preseason ADP and found their salaries unable to catch up to their production for a while (Doug Baldwin, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Steve L Smith etc.).
• We see the value of high-priced stud WRs on FanDuel, with Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Odell Beckham all in the top-20. On the other hand, the bottom of the list is littered with cheap WRs with few exceptions, rather than expensive ones who simply underperformed relative to salary.

Final Takeaways

When you're looking to pay up on FanDuel, WRs are generally your best bet, especially in GPPs. Unlike some of the other positions, favorable Vegas odds don't play as big of a role in WR production. Instead, accurately projecting volume is paramount for WRs, and a WR being able to secure at least five receptions and score a TD is more often than not a prerequisite for a good ROI. Red zone targets are also key, as a WR needed a TD over three-fourths of the time just to hit 2x value. Since FanDuel is not full-PPR and there are no yardage bonuses, WRs need monster games to put up GPP value -- the average receiving stat line in to hit tournament value was significantly higher than on DraftKings.

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Appendix

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