Jets vs. Bills Odds & Picks: Finding a Cover in the Big Apple

Jan 09, 2022
Jets vs. Bills Odds & Picks: Finding a Cover in the Big Apple

There is no better way to celebrate the first weekend of sports betting in the state of New York than with an intradivisional AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. The Jets proved last week they won't go quietly, after taking the defending Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers to the brink of defeat at home. Buffalo needs a win to secure its second consecutive division title, staking their claim to ending the Patriots' division dominance.

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Bills vs. Jets Betting Odds

Bills Jets
Spread -16.5 +16.5
Moneyline -1375 +800
Over/Under 40.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Jets Best Bets

*Lines accurate at time of publication.

Jets +16.5 vs. Bills (-110, DK)

The Jets have been a fairly competitive team all season, earning wins over Tennessee, Cincinnati, and a valiant effort last week against Tampa Bay. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is playing his best football of his rookie season, tallying four total touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two games. The absence of Braxton Berrios will hurt the New York passing game, but the return of veteran Jamison Crowder and clearance of versatile running back Michael Carter (concussion) provides the same short-to-intermediate safety valves for Wilson.

The Jets were pummeled 45-17 in their first game against Buffalo, however that game was greatly affected by four interceptions throw by backup quarterback Mike White. The Jets gave away five turnovers in that game, a difficult performance to repeat.

Buffalo does not create elite pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking just 19th among all teams in sacks per game, actually tied with the Jets. The Bills will likely win this game, but covering a 16.5-point spread is quite a challenge. The Bills are 8-6-2 against the spread (ATS) but just 3-3-2 at home. Buffalo is 4-7 against the number in its last 11 games this season. Buffalo brings a solid scheme-based defensive system that is stout in total yards and team points allowed per game. However, the Bills can be attacked on the ground, with both Atlanta (4.4 yards per carry) and New England (5.5) finding recent success on the ground. I project the Jets to mirror that game plan, and cut down on their offensive turnovers.

Buffalo is just 1-2-2 ATS at home in their last five games as a favorite. That includes failing to cover big spreads against Atlanta, Miami and Indianapolis. It will be a division-clinching day in Buffalo on Sunday, but not by 17 or more points.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)

Jets vs. Bills Game Total Over 40.5 Points (-110, DK)

Buffalo's offense has clicked over the past month, posting 27+ points in four straight games. The Bills are a mediocre 8-8 to the over this season, but they are facing a Jets team that is best in the NFL at hitting the over in games. New York is 10-6 to the over, and is coming off a game against the Buccaneers where they posted 24 points.

With Wilson's recent strong play, and the explosiveness of Carter, New York will find a way to score at least two touchdowns. The Jets defense will also find opportunities against Josh Allen turnovers, as the Bills' signal-caller has 15 interceptions on the season. In games with a high spread, there is always the threat of "garbage-time" points, making this over the right play between two familiar foes.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)

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