Patriots vs. Bills Odds & Picks: Super Wild Card Betting Preview

Jan 15, 2022
Patriots vs. Bills Odds & Picks: Super Wild Card Betting Preview

With New York Sports Betting finally legalized last Saturday, we have been taking a close look at the myriad of betting opportunities in the Empire State this week. New Yorkers have enjoyed a ton of wagering opportunities with exciting contests in each of the past seven days. Today, all eyes go to Orchard Park, New York, where the Patriots and Bills battle for the third time this year. Today, the stakes are even greater as the season ends for one of these teams.

Let's take a close look at some great betting opportunities in today's Super Wild Card Weekend battle.

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Bills vs. Patriots Betting Odds

Bills Patriots
Spread -5 +5
Moneyline -220 +190
Over/Under 44 (-110)

Bills vs. Patriots Best Bets

*Lines accurate at time of publication.

Patriots +5 vs. Bills (-110, DK)

I just can't lay this many points with Bill Belichick.

New England won in Buffalo back in Week 13, despite only attempting three total passes the entire game. The New England ground attack is among the best in NFL, averaging 154.7 yards per game in their last three contests. In Week 16, the Bills adjusted their game plan, winning 33-21 on the road at Foxboro Stadium. Given Belichick's history, I suspect he purposely limited his game plan on both sides of the ball in that second matchup. What surprises could New England have ready for today?

I suspect we will see more freedom for quarterback Mac Jones. The rookie signal-caller has shown poise throughout the season, ranking second at the position with a 58.2% pressured completion rate, via PlayerProfiler. Look for New England to find opportunities to attack a Buffalo pass defense without cornerback Tre'Davious White. After getting pounded for 222 rushing yards in their first matchup, Buffalo still allowed Patriots running back Damien Harris to gain 103 rushing yards and score three touchdowns. Buffalo can't stop New England's rushing attack, and if Jones finds efficiency through the air, New England will win this game outright.

Buffalo does not create elite pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking just 19th among all teams in sacks per game. The Bills have struggled the past two weeks at home, despite having an AFC East title on the line. Buffalo struggled against a soft Atlanta team and then barely covered against the Jets last week. In that game, the Jets only tallied 135 yards of total offense, yet were down only 10 points with under four minutes left.

The Bills are 9-6-2 against the spread (ATS) but just 4-3-2 at home. Buffalo is 5-7 against the number in its last 12 games this season. Buffalo is just 2-2-2 ATS at home in their last six games as a favorite. That includes failing to cover big spreads against Atlanta, Miami and Indianapolis. I'll grab the five points with the Patriots in a game I expect them to win outright.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)

Bills vs. Patriots Game Total Under 44 Points (-110, DK)

The game-time weather in Buffalo projects to be one of the coldest in NFL history. The temperature will be well below freezing with a wind chill of negative-five degrees.

If any game projects as an under, this is it.

New England and Buffalo both bring elite defensive units, ranking third and first in defensive DVOA, respectively. These two teams rank first and second in the NFL in defensive points allowed per game this season. The Bills allowed the fewest points per game (16.6) at home this year. The Patriots allowed the fewest points per game to their opponents on the road this year, only allowing 16.0 points per game.

Everything points to a close, low-scoring game between two teams meeting for the third time. The Patriots were the fifth-slowest team in neutral game script pace this year. The frigid temperatures will only help slow down both teams.

I'm going with the classic betting combination of pairing the underdog with the under on the game total. Buffalo's offense is explosive, but quarterback Josh Allen has shown an increased tendency to turn the ball over. His 17 total turnovers this season provides a window into how New England can slow down the Bills' attack.

This line opened at 43.5 points and has hovered around that number all week. I'm backing the under in a physical battle in freezing Saturday night temperatures in Orchard Park.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)

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For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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