Patrick Mahomes Is Worth Targeting In Fantasy Football At His ADP

One of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season was the Kansas City Chiefs finishing with a 6-11 record and missing out on the playoffs. The season really ended on a sour note with Patrick Mahomes suffering a torn ACL and LCL in Week 15. The combination of that injury and disappointing production the last few seasons has resulted in Mahomes’ ADP falling in fantasy football.

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Recovery From Injury

It will be about nine months from the time Mahomes suffered his injury to the start of the regular season. He participated in individual and 7-on-7 drills during OTAs, but did not take part in any full-team drills. While his goal is to be ready for Week 1, at a minimum, he will likely be limited at the start of training camp.

It’s rare to see Mahomes on the sidelines. Prior to going down last year, he played 16 or 17 games in each of the previous four seasons. The two games that he missed were in Week 18 in 2023 and 2024, with the Chiefs resting him for the playoffs. Behind him on the depth chart is Justin Fields, who is known more for his rushing prowess than his ability to rack up yards through the air. If Mahomes were to miss time, the Chiefs would likely need to deploy a different style of offense with Fields under center.

Declining Production

Mahomes wasn’t exactly lighting the fantasy football world on fire last year before his injury. Over 14 games, he threw for 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. It was the fewest passing yards for a season in his career, and his 62.7% completion rate was also his lowest mark. If there was a silver lining, it’s that he posted career highs in rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (five). That helped him finish as QB11, per 4for4’s Fantasy Points Browser.

Since throwing for a whopping 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2022, Mahomes’ production has been on a steady decline. Despite playing 16 games in 2024, he failed to throw for at least 4,000 for the first time in his career. He finished as QB8 in 2023, then QB12 in 2024.

A contributing factor for Mahomes’ decline has been his yards per pass attempt. He averaged at least 8.1 yards per pass attempt in four of his first five seasons as a starter. Over the last three seasons, he averaged 7.0, 6.8, and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Over the last three seasons, he combined for nine games with at least 300 passing yards. He had 10 games with at least 300 passing yards in 2022 alone.

Chiefs Make A Splash At Running Back

Another reason for Mahomes’ underwhelming stats has been the lack of talent around him. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends of all time, but he will turn 37 years old in October. The Chiefs have yet to fully replace Tyreek Hill, which has removed an element of explosiveness from their passing game. Rashee Rice brings a lot of talent to the table, but injuries and off-the-field issues have prevented him from reaching his full potential. Xavier Worthy hasn’t lived up to the hype either, after being selected in the first round of the 2024 Draft. In his first two seasons, he combined for just 1,170 receiving yards.

Teams have also been focusing their efforts on slowing down Mahomes because of Kansas City’s lack of production on the ground. Isiah Pacheco flashed upside, but injuries limited him to just 20 games over the last two seasons. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry in 2024, then 3.9 last season. Kareem Hunt came back for a second stint with the franchise the last two seasons, but he didn’t average more than 3.7 yards per carry in either campaign.

The Chiefs will once again rely on Kelce, Rice, and Worthy to be the main pass-catching options for Mahomes. However, they made a big splash to improve their ground game by signing Kenneth Walker away from the Seahawks. Walker averaged 4.6 yards per carry last year, helping the Seahawks finish 13th in the NFL in explosive rush rate (8.8%), per 4for4’s NFL Team Stat Explorer. The Chiefs were last in that category with an explosive rush rate of 5.6%.

The combination of returning from injury and declining production the last few seasons has left Mahomes with an ADP of 105, per 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP. That makes him QB14 between Matthew Stafford (ADP 101) and Bo Nix (ADP 110). Fantasy managers aren’t paying for his past production, which is smart. There isn’t a ton of risk that comes with taking him that late in drafts, though, and if Walker can help take some of the opposing defense’s attention away from the passing game, Mahomes could be a low-end QB1 in fantasy football.

The Bottom Line

• Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL and LCL that ended his 2025 campaign prematurely. While he could be limited in training camp, it would not be a surprise if he is on the field for Week 1 of the regular season.
• Even before his injury, Mahomes’ production was on the decline. In the last two seasons, he has finished outside the top 10 among quarterbacks in fantasy football.
• The Chiefs return the same top targets for Mahomes next season, but improved at running back with the signing of Kenneth Walker.
• According to 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP, Mahomes has an ADP of 105 and is QB14.
• Mahomes’ ADP has fallen to a reasonable level that takes into consideration his injury risk and disappointing last few seasons. The Chiefs should have a more potent offense with Walker improving their rushing attack, and Mahomes has enough weapons in the passing game to make himself a low-end QB1 this year.