Who Should You Draft with the 6th Pick in 2025?

The sixth overall pick is a solid spot in 2025 fantasy football drafts, thanks to the widely accepted six-man tier in the first round. Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb are going one through six (in some order) to start just about every draft. Across the eight redraft platforms that our multi-site ADP aggregates, while there is some variability in the order of those six players, every single site has those same six players sitting atop ADP. Not only that, but I personally prefer the seventh player in consensus ADP, Christian McCaffrey, to a couple of those top six, which means we have an elite seven-player pool to pick from.

What makes these six (or seven) guys so special? Well, outside of Bijan Robinson, the other six have all finished top two at their position in fantasy in one of the last two seasons. Lamb and McCaffrey were number one at their respective positions in 2023, while Chase, Jefferson, Barkley, and Gibbs finished first and second at WR and RB, respectively, in 2024. (Robinson, for what it's worth, finished fourth among running backs last year and ninth the year prior as a rookie.) It's not exactly rocket science to have the six players (and Robinson) with that upside at the top of 2025 drafts. They've proven it.

That's not to say they're not foolproof: Gibbs lost OC Ben Johnson, Jefferson has a new QB and has been dealing with a hamstring injury, Lamb's QB is recovering from his own hamstring injury, etc. But these six (or seven) guys have shown us the ability to finish at the tippy-top of fantasy, so it's not hard to believe in them again.

But if you're sitting at the 1.06, which one should you draft? Realistically, you're not getting Chase or Robinson, who are the consensus top two picks, going no lower than fourth on any platform. And it's very rare to see Barkley fall that far either — he's going second on NFL.com, third on ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo, and fourth in FFPC and NFFC drafts. Most likely, you're going to face a choice between some combination of Gibbs, Jefferson, Lamb, and McCaffrey. And if you need any more context for how good this spot is, all four of these names were candidates for the 1.01 in my last article in this series.

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Who should you choose? Let's break it down.

The Candidates (in ADP order)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

Last year, Jahmyr Gibbs was an efficiency monster, scoring just two fewer half-PPR fantasy points than Saquon Barkley on 76 fewer touches (albeit in one additional game). The Lions back averaged 1.12 fantasy points per touch — the most by a player with 300+ touches since LaDainian Tomlinson in his legendary 2006 season (also 1.12, but roughly six-thousandths of a point ahead of Gibbs).

Incidentally, the two guys to top Gibbs' fantasy points per touch — Marshall Faulk in 2000 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 — both finished as the fantasy RB1 overall the year they did it ... and the year after. Both saw a small drop in efficiency, but still shouldered at least 340 touches to top the position back-to-back. That's simultaneously good and bad news for the 23-year-old back: the historical precedent is great, but neither of those Hall-of-Famers was splitting work ... at all. Gibbs, obviously, loses quite a few touches to David Montgomery from week to week. And it might be worse than you remember.

Last year, through Week 14, Gibbs was the RB4, nearly 65 points behind Barkley. Through three quarters of Week 15, he had scored 6.4 fantasy points. Then, early in the fourth quarter, David Montgomery tore his MCL. Gibbs immediately went nuclear, scoring 19.5 fantasy points in that quarter alone. He then proceeded to score 91.2 fantasy points over the last three weeks of the year in Montgomery's absence, averaging 30.4 points per game after averaging just 16.9 through the first 14 weeks. Gibbs scored more points in the 13 quarters immediately following Montgomery's injury than he did in the first seven games of the season combined.

Montgomery will be back in full for the 2025 season, but that's not the biggest question mark on Gibbs. That would be the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. By any rational projection, the Lions will be less efficient and score fewer touchdowns this year, while also potentially throwing downfield more often under new OC John Morton. They also lost both Kevin Zeitler and Frank Ragnow, stalwarts on the interior of the offensive line. None of that is particularly good for Gibbs.

Essentially, this is a bet on talent versus situational context. Gibbs is one of the most explosive and most versatile backs in the NFL. Assuming similar volume in 2025, he will be a top-five RB without question. But he will likely be less efficient, might see fewer touches if Montgomery remains healthy, and may have fewer opportunities to score if Detroit takes a step back on offense. Weighing both sides on the fantasy scale, Gibbs is an elite option, but not a lock at sixth overall.

WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings

(Note: This is an updated version of my blurb from the 1st Pick piece, as little has changed.)

Three seasons ago, Justin Jefferson was the best wide receiver in fantasy and trailed just Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey for overall fantasy points. And while he caught a monster 128 passes for 1,809 yards on 184 targets that year, he actually suffered from poor touchdown efficiency, scoring just eight times — below the league average for "touchdown rate" on targets. Through five career seasons, Jefferson has averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game, trailing only Ja'Marr Chase for most in NFL history ... not just most in a player's first five seasons, most period. He's arguably the best wideout in the NFL and in fantasy.

And yet, in 2025 drafts, he's going fifth overall, as the WR3 in multi-site ADP. Why? Two reasons. The first is a hamstring injury that cropped up in late July and sidelined the All-World receiver through most of August. Of all the issues that could plague a player late in training camp and into the preseason, hamstrings are among the most concerning. They're often precursors to other injuries, and tend to linger far longer than we'd like. For proof, Jefferson missed seven games in 2023 due to a hamstring injury (on the other leg). The second reason is "second-year rookie" QB J.J. McCarthy, who takes over the Minnesota offense after the 10th overall pick missed his entire (actual) rookie season (knee). Sam Darnold was shockingly efficient in McCarthy's absence, and head coach Kevin O'Connell's history suggests he can get more of the same out of McCarthy, but he's still a far less proven commodity than Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott (the guys passing to the WR1 and WR2 in ADP).

If he leaves the hamstring issue behind and if McCarthy has a breakout season, there's little reason Jefferson can't be number one at the position (again) or in all of fantasy. The question is whether those "ifs" knock him down below any of the other options here.

WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

If you want the complete outlook for CeeDee Lamb, I wrote his full profile earlier this month. It's worth reading for the context and the details, but here's The Bottom Line from that article:

• With Dak Prescott at the helm, CeeDee Lamb has been arguably the best and most consistent wide receiver in fantasy for three years ... and Dak is back after missing the latter half of 2024.
• Lamb is unlikely to be affected much by the coaching changes or the addition of George Pickens in Dallas — if anything, Pickens' presence might open things up for Lamb, while leaving him comfortably atop the pecking order.
• Projecting Lamb in this offense results in an expected finish somewhere in the top five, and the All-Pro belongs squarely in the tier with Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson for "Most Likely to Finish No. 1 Overall."

Finally, I concluded by stating that "I'm personally willing to spend the 1.01 overall to land him in some drafts." And in the "Who Should You Draft 1st" article earlier this month, Lamb was my choice for the 1.01 in PPR, and was barely edged out by Bijan Robinson in the other scoring formats. Soooo ... my thoughts here at 1.06 might be pretty clear.

When Lamb was the WR1 just two years ago, only four players outscored him in fantasy: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and teammate Dak Prescott at QB, plus Christian McCaffrey at RB. If he gets anywhere close to that level of production in 2025, he'd be a smash pick here at sixth overall (and a valid pick at first overall).

RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

Funny enough, I also wrote the full profile for Christian McCaffrey earlier this month. That one is even more worth reading, given all the questions and confusion around CMC and his 2025 outlook, but here's The Bottom Line again:

• When healthy, Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in fantasy, arguably the best fantasy asset at any position, and potentially the best to ever grace our fantasy lineups.
• Health is a legitimate concern, with a substantial history of multi-game absences, lower-body and soft-tissue injuries, and Achilles tendinitis from last season. We can't ignore the risks, but we should also weigh them appropriately with McCaffrey's five healthy seasons and the upside he brings when active.
• At a current ADP of RB4 (1.07 overall), the investment to get McCaffrey is massive. You're spending your first-round pick, and if he misses half the season, it could kill your chances at the championship. But, if he plays 17 games of vintage CMC football, you'll be getting the number one player in fantasy six picks later than he should have gone.

It's not actually all that complicated. McCaffrey is down at 1.07 in ADP — and very likely available here at the sixth pick — purely because of the injury concerns. If you project him for a clean bill of health — which is less "foolishly optimistic" than it sounds — he'd be a favorite to finish atop all of fantasy. Notably, as I wrote this piece, the news broke that San Francisco had traded for Brian Robinson Jr. It's necessary depth for a roster (already) thinned out by injuries, after the team traded Jordan Mason to Minnesota early in the offseason. But I don't believe Robinson will be a major threat to McCaffrey's volume — he'll likely end up with around 125 carries and might help keep CMC healthy, but he's not threatening the All-Pro back for the starting job or for a 50-50 split.

Who Should You Draft?

Despite all the pomp, circumstance, research, and roughly 1,800 words wrestling through this decision above, the sixth overall pick is arguably the easiest in fantasy (in my book). As long as CeeDee Lamb — you know, the guy I've considered at 1.01 overall — is still on the board, it's Lamb. By a Texas mile. If Lamb is gone, it's Gibbs, unless you're feeling frisky on McCaffrey, in which case I support taking the Niner over the Lion. And if Jefferson is the only guy left of the "Elite Six" — and you don't trust McCaffrey to stay healthy — then it's Jefferson with confidence (not as a consolation).

My pick at the 1.01 in each format:

• PPR: CeeDee Lamb
• Half-PPR: CeeDee Lamb
• Standard: CeeDee Lamb