Can CeeDee Lamb Reclaim the Crown of WR1 Overall?

In 2024, just a year after finishing as the WR1 overall, CeeDee Lamb was ... very good. But arguably not great. He was the WR8 in total points, but just the WR11 in points per game. Considering he was a top-three overall pick in fantasy drafts, it was a disappointing season. Is there an explanation for the dip? Should we expect another fringe top-10 year in 2025 ... or a return to the top?

Let's break it down.

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Bounce Back with Dak?

CeeDee Lamb played two different seasons last year: the one with Dak Prescott from Weeks 1-9 and the one with Cooper Rush from that point onward. With Prescott at the helm, Lamb averaged 15.2 fantasy points, 10.5 targets, and 82.5 yards per game, with four touchdowns in eight contests. Then, after Prescott's hamstring injury, Prescott averaged 13.0 PPG the rest of the season, on fewer targets and fewer yards, with just two touchdowns in seven games.

Lamb's 17-game pace with Prescott was 113 catches, 1,400 yards, and nine touchdowns, and would have locked him into a near-perfect tie with Amon-Ra St. Brown for WR3 overall. The only receivers to outscore his pace were, unsurprisingly, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. And of course, even that full-season pace — 259 fantasy points — falls well short of Lamb's 336 fantasy points the year prior.

Over the last three years in the aggregate, Lamb's 796.7 fantasy points are the most at the position, while his 16.3 fantasy points per game are third behind Jefferson (16.8) and Chase (16.7). He's been incredibly durable, with just three missed games in his five-year career — and two of those came at the end of last year, when he likely could have played through his shoulder injury but was shut down early with Dallas eliminated from playoff contention. In terms of the floor-and-ceiling combo, an argument could be made (very easily) that Lamb is the best wideout in fantasy, or at least comfortably in the tier with Chase and Jefferson.

Expectations in Arlington

After several years of being more or less the same team, the Cowboys went through a few changes this offseason, firing head coach Mike McCarthy, promoting OC Brian Schottenheimer to replace him, losing 11-year starting guard Zack Martin to retirement, and adding a legitimate WR2 in George Pickens. Their defense also took a major step back last year, ranking 28th in yards and 31st in scoring. But does any of this matter for perhaps the league's most stable star receiver?

The biggest question, immediately, will be whether Pickens is a threat to Lamb's volume. And the answer is no. While he's a better WR2 than Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks, or Noah Brown — Lamb's counterparts the last few years — he's not a high-volume receiver. Even as the "bona fide" WR1 in Pittsburgh, Pickens never saw more than 106 targets in a season, and only logged double-digit targets in four of 48 career games. He's more of a Jordan Addison (to Justin Jefferson, or a Jameson Williams (to Amon Ra St. Brown) than he is a Tee Higgins (to Ja'Marr Chase) or even a DeVonta Smith (to A.J. Brown). That probably means a target share around 18-20% — healthy, but no threat to Lamb's 25-30%. If anything, having a legitimate field-stretching threat might open things up for Lamb, reduce the frequency he faces double-coverage, and increase his efficiency on a per target basis.

Now consider Prescott's typical volume. When healthy — he has admittedly missed quite a few games over Lamb's career — Prescott averages 36.3 pass attempts per game, for a pace of 617 per season (using the last six years, since his 2019 breakout). In just about any given year, that would be top five in the league. Moreover, he's averaged 7.7 yards per attempt and has a 5.4% touchdown rate, putting him in limited active company with Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy. Prescott's production is underrated and is a major key to Lamb's success.

Projecting CeeDee Lamb in 2025

So what should we expect from the All-Pro this season? Let's set some relatively conservative lines: a 26% target share, on 600 Prescott attempts, with a 66% catch rate, 12.5 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 20 targets. Those numbers are the low end of Lamb and Prescott's career marks, assuming health, but let's start there. That would equate to 156 targets, 103 catches, 1,287 yards, and eight touchdowns. Or the WR6 last season. That's Lamb's floor. Now tweak those numbers to the "positive" case — not stretching reality, just using the optimistic end of the scales — and give him a 28% target share, on 620 attempts, with a 68% catch rate, 13.5 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 15 targets. That's 174 targets, 118 catches, 1,593 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Or the WR2 last season.

Realistically, it's hard to imagine Lamb finishing outside of the top five, and he's the best contender for No. 1 overall outside of Chase and Jefferson. Considering Chase just finished there and we haven't had a repeat WR1 in a decade, while Jefferson's building a new rapport with a first-year starting quarterback ... it's not a stretch to say the three have essentially equal chances to finish at the top.

This is being reflected in his draft price, where Lamb is up to WR2 in our multi-site ADP ahead of Jefferson, going as high as third overall on multiple platforms. He's a rare fusion of safety with best-in-fantasy upside, even for the first round, and has been one of my favorite picks in best ball and redraft all offseason.

The Bottom Line

• With Dak Prescott at the helm, CeeDee Lamb has been arguably the best and most consistent wide receiver in fantasy for three years ... and Dak is back after missing the latter half of 2024.
• Lamb is unlikely to be affected much by the coaching changes or the addition of George Pickens in Dallas — if anything, Pickens' presence might open things up for Lamb, while leaving him comfortably atop the pecking order.
• Projecting Lamb in this offense results in an expected finish somewhere in the top five, and the All-Pro belongs squarely in the tier with Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson for "Most Likely to Finish No. 1 Overall."
• At a current ADP of WR2 (1.05 overall), you're paying a lot to land Lamb ... but there are few (if any) picks in fantasy that have a floor and a ceiling as high as the Cowboys star. He's an excellent pick in the middle of the first round, and I'm personally willing to spend the 1.01 overall to land him in some drafts.