DeVonta Smith Remains the Ultimate Boom-or-Bust Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith has spent his four-year NFL career trying to live up to the massive expectations placed on him since his last year at the University of Alabama. When you come out of the best school in the country and produce 1,856 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns in just 12 games, people are going to expect big things in your career. However, through four NFL seasons, Smith’s career has been defined more by his boom-or-bust play and not the consistent excellence many expected.

As one of two uber-talented wide receivers on the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, Smith is a part of one of the best offensive systems in all of football. But that same system that rolled over the Kansas City Chiefs last February is the one that ultimately will keep him from reaching the echelon of the league’s greatest receivers.

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DeVonta Smith now has a Super Bowl ring, so I’m sure he doesn’t care one bit about where he falls in the 4for4 Multi-Site ADP Tool. Fantasy managers, however, must figure out where to draft him, and it’s often a maddening exercise.

DeVonta Smith’s Downfield Explosiveness is Elite

One thing that has never been a question mark for DeVonta Smith is his explosiveness and speed. According to various explosiveness ratings, Smith ranks top 12 among wide receivers, and he is always one of the best receivers at separation rates each year. Smith is a route-winner, and when he gets targets, those turn into big fantasy plays. Smith was 12th among receivers in fantasy points per target in 2024.

That explosiveness has been sidelined a little too often in the past couple of years, however. Smith saw two games with a hamstring injury and one game with a concussion in 2024. He also missed time with an ankle sprain in 2023. And his team is SO good that he has not played in Week 18 since 2022, as the Eagles rested players ahead of the playoffs.

Throwback to DeVonta Smith’s insane one-handed catch 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Vk9yBsJ0IQ

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 4, 2025

His 2024 season (68 receptions, 833 yards, eight touchdowns in 13 games) was on pace to be a carbon copy of 2023 (81 receptions, 1,066 yards, and seven scores in 15 games) until his three missed games. But despite five games with more than 16 fantasy points in half-PPR formats in 2024, Smith only ranked 17th in fantasy points per game (12.7), largely due to three games he played when he scored fewer than five points.

The Eagles’ Offensive Scheme Limits Smith’s Upside

A great thought experiment is to think about what would happen if DeVonta Smith were to switch places with someone like Tee Higgins. What would Smith’s production look like? DeVonta Smith has a very good quarterback throwing him the ball in Jalen Hurts, but the Eagles are looking to establish the run early and often, which limits DeVonta Smith’s weekly upside.

In 2024, no team ran the ball at a higher percentage of their offensive plays (56/3%) or as a raw total of plays (36.7, more than three attempts higher than second place). With Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley around, and with an elite defense behind them, there is very little asked of Hurts, especially when it comes to taking big shots downfield.

To show this in real numbers, consider Smith’s involvement with this offense. He finished seventh in wide receiver target share at 28.6% in 2024. But in terms of the total number of targets? He finished 42nd with 89. He was 56th in routes run and 39th in red zone targets.

A wide receiver with that kind of cap on his team’s passing game just does not set him up to be one of the top receivers in the league. It also hurts that one of the most efficient and technical wide receivers in the league lines up on the other side of the field.

A.J. Brown Will Always Soak Up a Large Share of the Targets

While Smith’s 28.6% target share is impressive, it’s dwarfed by the share of targets A.J. Brown received in 2024. Brown was second in the league with a 34.4% target share. Again, because of the smaller passing pie with the Eagles, his slice only equaled 97 targets (39th among wide receivers). Smith is not only contending with fewer raw passes than literally every other team in the league, but also a teammate who is the clear WR1 on the team.

Brown is also top five in the league in air yards share, yards per route run, yards per pass attempt, and route participation. In the red zone, even though Smith is a high-point master and never drops the ball (two drops all of 2024), Smith can’t even separate. According to the 4for4 Red Zone Stats tool, Smith ended 2024 with 11 red zone targets while A.J. Brown almost tied him with 10.

The Bottom Line

• Despite being one of the most dominant college wide receivers of the last 10 years, DeVonta Smith’s production in the NFL has been very boom-or-bust.
• Among all wide receivers, DeVonta Smith is one of the most explosive players in the league. His target share is elite, and he ranks among the top 12 wide receivers in fantasy points per target.
• The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles have a very clear offensive philosophy that they want to run as much as possible, including in the red zone and at the goal line. This caps the potential upside for Smith and other Eagles’ pass-catchers.
• DeVonta Smith also has to contend with A.J. Brown, one of the most efficient and productive wide receivers in the NFL.
• On another team with a more pass-friendly offense and a shakier defense, DeVonta Smith would likely be a top ten wide receiver in the league. As long as Smith is on the Eagles, his game is likely to remain very boom or bust.
• Right now, Smith is being drafted as the WR25, with an ADP of 53.