Aaron Jones is the Fantasy Football Participation Trophy of 2026

It pains me to write a negative article about Aaron Jones. He’s one of my favorite fantasy RBs of all time. But it’s difficult to find any statistical backing for optimism going into his age-32 season. That’s not to say this is a pro-Jordan Mason article. Far from it. Can we knock on door number three?

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Aaron Jones’ Declining Efficiency

I recently finished my Most Predictable RB Stat article, which highlighted variables that provide important context beyond ADP and fantasy points per game. The graph below has six of those variables on it. For each one, there is a distribution specific to Aaron Jones’ career, excluding his rookie year. The red dotted lines show Jones’ value in that stat last year.

Well, it’s not great. Jones’ 2025 season was either his worst or second-worst year in five of the six stats. Surprisingly, he looked pretty good in EPA per attempt, though that variable has a narrow range. Let’s expand this to look at how Jones compares to other RBs across the league. The graph below lists the 10 most important variables from the article I mentioned above. And it includes Jones’ rank out of 45 qualifying RBs last year.

Jones was 30th or worse in fantasy points per game, touchdown rate, elusive rating, attempts per game, and breakaway rate. The three pillars of fantasy RB scoring are passing catching, touchdowns, and explosive runs. 42nd and 37th in touchdown and breakaway rates, respectively, just aren’t going to cut it. And while he should still have receiving value, we’re four years away from Jones’ peak in yards per route run (YPRR) and that’s been declining every year.

So, we have an old back, with almost no touchdown potential or explosiveness, with rushing volume concerns given his backfield competition, and a receiving profile that is getting worse every year. That must mean I’m in on Mason, right?

Jordan Mason’s Outlook

Not necessarily. At this point in their respective careers, Mason is clearly the better runner than Jones. He was 13th in PFF’s elusive rating last year and much stronger in Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expected. And that’s fantastic. But going back to the three pillars, he was average in both touchdown rate and breakaway percent, and genuinely one of the worst RBs when it comes to receiving in the NFL.

The graph below shows RB routes per game on the x-axis and aDoT on the y-axis. I really like the clarity of the trend. I think it shows that coaches recognize RBs that are skilled receivers and allow these backs to run actual routes or at least run routes farther down the field. You’ll find Jordan Mason deep in the bottom-left corner of the graph.

Among qualifying RBs, he only ran more routes per game than Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Derrick Henry, and David Montgomery last year. And his aDoT was almost a full yard below the next RB. It’s clear the Vikings do not see Mason as an asset in the receiving game, and they’d be justified in that viewpoint given Mason finished 43rd among the same 45 qualifying RBs in YPRR last year. That was his second straight season with a YPRR below 0.6 yards.

Is there any chance that someone else in this backfield could step up in 2026?

Demond Who?

Well, the Vikings did select an RB, Demond Claiborne, in the draft. Three big issues there, though. He was a sixth-round pick, he’s 188 pounds, and he wasn’t especially good in college. Womp!

Digging deeper into his college stats, Claiborne was below-average in rushing touchdowns per attempt over his career compared to the rest of the 2026 class. And given his weight, I wouldn’t anticipate he’d get a crack at the red-zone role anytime soon. On the receiving side of things, I think calling Claiborne slightly above average is generous.

Claiborne did blaze at the combine, though, running a 4.37-second 40-yard dash. Surely that showed up in his stats, right? Wrong again! His 12.8% explosive run rate last year was about 2% below the average of other RBs drafted in the 2026 class.

Given Claiborne’s size and ok receiving profile in college, he seems like the direct Jones replacement either this year or next year at the latest. That gives Mason the highest floor among RBs on the Vikings and basically removes Jones from my draft board. Mason’s ceiling case starts and ends with a huge spike in TDs on an offense that simply has to be better than last year.

But I don’t find myself excited to take Mason given his utter lack of receiving value. I generally prefer to avoid both Jones and Mason. And it’s not like Claiborne is a priority target given his TD limitations. But he goes in the last round in best ball drafts. At cost, Claiborne is my preferred way to play the Vikings’ backfield, but it’s still not a bet I love making. My answer to which Vikings’ RB to take in 2026 is no.

Bottom Line

• Aaron Jones has been a fantastic fantasy RB over the course of his career.
• But this is his age-32 season, and last year he hit or nearly-hit career lows in touchdown rate, elusive rating, attempts per game, YPRR, and breakaway percent.
• He was in the bottom third of qualifying RBs in many of those same stats.
• However, Jordan Mason is one of the worst receiving backs in the league, ranking 43rd among 45 qualifying RBs in YPRR last year.
• Mason’s ceiling case starts and ends with a huge spike in TDs despite being average in touchdown rate last year.
• And yet, the Vikings’ sixth-round pick Demond Claiborne isn’t a priority target in this ambiguous backfield because his size limits touchdown potential and he didn’t flash high-end explosiveness or receiving ability in college.
• Claiborne is still my favorite target in the backfield because he’s free, but my overarching thought on Vikings’ RBs is no, despite ADPs of 114 (Jones), 119 (Mason), and 211 (Claiborne).