Can James Conner Conquer the Cliffs in 2025?

Analyzing and predicting in fantasy football is a harrowing task. There are so many factors to consider — some in direct contradiction with others — that navigating our way to the right answers often feels like hunting a snowman in a snowstorm (apologies for the winter analogy, I know it's July). Such is the case with Cardinals running back James Conner, who is coming off a resurgent 2024 season ... but just turned 30 years old. Which direction will his arrow point in 2025? Let's break it down.

Click here for more 2025 Player Profiles!

DraftKings is giving ALL customers a can't-miss offer for Best Ball: Draft One, Get One! Enter a lineup in the $15 Million Best Ball Contest for just $20, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play FREE for a share of $15 million—giving you a second shot to win big!

RB1 Resurgence in 2024

After four seasons in Pittsburgh and two in Arizona, all of which involved Conner missing multiple games, community consensus had started running rather cold on the Cardinals' lead back last summer. While some brave analysts had him ranked as an RB1, Conner's ADP was down at RB19, and many drafters were avoiding him even there, for fear of (another) injury. Conner did, unfortunately, bust some championship lineups in Week 17 by exiting early with a knee issue — but until then, he was a revelation. He posted career highs in games played (16), carries (236), rushing yards (1,094), and total scrimmage yards (1,508). Through Week 16, he was the RB10 in fantasy, and only dropped to the RB11 after missing the last game and a half. Despite turning 29 years old well before the season started, he ranked fourth in explosive run rate (14.4%) and sixth in avoided tackle rate (28%) among qualified backs (per FTN StatsHub).

During all this, Conner saw very limited competition from the rest of the Arizona depth chart — rookie Trey Benson had 63 carries on the year (in 13 games played), Emari Demercado logged just 24, and Michael Carter didn't make the active roster until the very end of the season. Even Kyler Murray was less involved as a rusher — in his first full year off the ACL injury — with a career low 4.6 rush attempts per game.

Despite all this, Conner is sitting at RB21 in current Underdog ADP. That puts him behind rookies Omarion Hampton and RJ Harvey — who both have proven veterans threatening for touches — as well as fellow senior citizens Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon. If Conner repeats his efficiency from 2024 (now another year older), and if the Cardinals offense stands pat or improves, that would be a screaming value ... but is that too many if's?

Concern for the Cliffs

Conner is a bit of an odd bird when it comes to typical concerns over historical age-based running back regression. We typically see "the cliff" around 27 or 28 years old, or around 1,500 career carries. Conner, meanwhile, logged a career-high 5.0 yards per carry at 28 (in 2023), a career-high 1,508 scrimmage yards at 29, and has topped 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns all three seasons since turning 27. With all the injuries early in his career, Conner had never toted more than 215 carries in a season until 2024, but now his career total stands at 1,361 — just 139 short of the 1,500-carry threshold.

While the defiance of Father Time has been encouraging for Conner, he always wins, eventually. Over the last five seasons, only four backs have finished top-24 at the position in their age-30 seasons or later: Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones in 2024, Raheem Mostert in 2023, and Cordarrelle Patterson in 2021 (yes, you read that right). Mostert hit the mark with his absurd 21-TD year, and Patterson managed to do so with an odd hodgepodge of receiving work and red zone touchdowns. In other words, it's not common, barring some flukey statistics (or Henry's superhuman genes). Conner will also hit the 1,500-carry mark this year (unless he misses significant time), so the "cliff data" is certainly not in his camp for 2025.

Cardinals Offensive Stability

The Cardinals have ridden a bit of a rollercoaster throughout the Kyler Murray era. They've had stretches of strength, including an 11-6 finish and a playoff appearance in 2021, but they've also struggled through coaching changes and injuries, highlighted by consecutive 4-13 finishes in 2022 and 2023. Heading into 2025, they'll now be on year three of HC Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing. Their offensive line remains surprisingly stable and intact, with four starters returning (including 2024 breakout LT Paris Johnson Jr.). Trey McBride has established himself as one of the most reliable TE targets in the game.

Whether or not Marvin Harrison Jr. makes the "huge" year two jump that Gannon expects from him is yet to be seen, but given his profile, I'd expect that he will, following another offseason to build chemistry with Murray. If he does, and if Murray can find some consistency to extend his occasional flashes of brilliance, this offense should crack the top half of the league and maybe the top 10 once again. They were 12th in scoring and 11th in total offense despite the frequent ups and downs last season, and were top-eight in scoring back in 2020 and 2021 when Murray was using his legs more freely — which he feels confident he can do again.

Meanwhile, speaking of stability, the depth chart behind Conner did not change an inch through the 2025 offseason. Trey Benson is another year into his NFL career — and is an intriguing sleeper pick should something happen to Conner. But none of Benson, Demercado, Carter, or free-agent pickup DeeJay Dallas poses any threat to Conner as long as the bell-cow back remains healthy and efficient.

The Bottom Line

• James Conner is coming off an excellent RB1 finish in 2024 and is poised to repeat if nothing changes.
• The greatest threat of "change" comes from Conner's own age and career workload, as he teeters precariously on the age of historical RB "cliffs" that eventually bring regression for everyone.
• Conner plays for what should be a productive offense — perhaps even an improved one — is the clear number one on the depth chart, and should see excellent volume once again in 2025.
• According to Underdog ADP, Conner is being drafted as the RB21 at 63rd overall near the 5-6 turn. Realistically, he will finish higher than that in fantasy unless he plummets off an efficiency cliff or misses significant time — but those possible eventualities must be acknowledged, so the risk is baked into his draft price. He's going around similar risk-reward options with greater competition, namely, RJ Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson. If you prefer the veteran risk to the rookie risk, Conner is a solid pick at his ADP.