Brian Robinson Jr. Has Been Mr. Consistent For The Commanders

The Washington Commanders took a big step forward last season. Not only did they make the playoffs, but they also advanced to the NFC Championship Game before being eliminated by the Philadelphia Eagles. They bring back much of their offensive core this season, including running back Brian Robinson Jr.

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Mr. Consistent

The Commanders selected Robinson in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He has been consistent early in his career, both in terms of workload and rushing yards production. In his rookie season, he ran 205 times for 797 yards. He followed that up with 178 carries for 733 yards in 2023. Last season, he ran 187 times for 799 yards. Robinson has averaged between 3.9 and 4.3 yards per carry in all three of his seasons in the NFL. He has also had a broken tackle percentage of between 12.2% and 12.8% each season. The Commanders like to run him inside, with Robinson posting an interior rush rate of between 72.5% and 76.1% in all three seasons.

Robinson just missed surpassing 800 rushing yards last year despite being limited to 14 games. During the regular season, he had three games in which he rushed for at least 100 yards. While he had 15 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the Lions, he was held to fewer than 40 rushing yards in both of the Commanders’ other two playoff games. Part of the issue was that he received just 10 and 11 carries in those games.

The Austin Ekeler Issue

Robinson didn’t make much of an impact in the passing game during his rookie season. He was targeted just 12 times over 12 games. He ran a total of 78 routes and was targeted on 15.4% of his routes run. That changed during his second season in the league when he caught 36 of 43 targets for 368 yards and four touchdowns. That season, he ran 215 routes and was targeted on 20.0% of them.

Last season, the Commanders added Austin Ekeler to their backfield. Although he is no longer the player that he was in his prime with the Chargers, he is still one of the better pass-catching running backs in the league. With him in the fold, Robinson was targeted only 25 times last season. He ran 178 routes, but was only targeted on 14.0% of them. That resulted in him finishing with 20 receptions for 159 yards and no touchdowns. By comparison, Ekeler caught 35 of 41 targets for 366 yards over 12 games. He ran 217 routes and was targeted on 18.9% of them.

Ekeler should once again limit Robinson’s targets this season. That will hamper Robinson’s upside in fantasy and is likely why he only has an ADP of 82, according to 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP. That makes him RB29. Players being selected ahead of Robinson include rookies TreVeyon Henderson (ADP 62, RB23) and Kaleb Johnson (ADP 69, RB26).

Potent Commanders Offense

After recording just two rushing touchdowns during his rookie season, Robinson has seen his touchdown production increase in both of the last two seasons. He had eight rushing touchdowns last season with quarterback Jayden Daniels providing a spark for their offense.

In 2023, Robinson was given 27 carries inside the red zone. Of those 27 carries, eight of them came from inside the five-yard line. With the Commanders being more proficient at moving the ball last season, Robinson was given 42 carries inside the red zone, 13 of which came from inside the five-yard line.

The Commanders could have an even better offense this season after they acquired Deebo Samuel from the 49ers to bolster their wide receiver group. They also improved their offensive line, acquiring tackle Laremy Tunsil from the Texans. Robinson will likely remain the Commanders’ top rushing option and should receive plenty of opportunities to reach the end zone. However, with Ekeler limiting his opportunities for targets, Robinson should be viewed as an RB3 in fantasy who can be used in flex positions or to fill in for bye weeks and injuries.

The Bottom Line

• Brian Robinson Jr. has rushed for between 733 and 797 yards in all three of his seasons in the NFL.
• Ekeler might not challenge Robinson for many carries, but he will limit Robinson’s targets.
• Daniels made the Commanders a more potent offensive team last season, which resulted in Robinson receiving 42 red zone carries and totaling eight rushing touchdowns.
• The Commanders added Samuel and Tunsil to further improve their offense heading into this season.
• According to 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP, Robinson has an ADP of 82 and is RB29.
• Due to his limited involvement in the passing game, Robinson is better served as an RB3 in fantasy who can fill a flex spot or fill in for bye weeks and injuries at running back.