Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Week 5 was my best week of player props since I started publicly releasing plays. I went 10-1 for +8.51 units. It truly doesn’t get much better than that. We had some plays break our way, but some of those breaks were factored into my handicap.

Gardner Minshew’s under hit despite a long touchdown in the first quarter because he was benched. I mentioned in my write-up that he was at an elevated risk of being benched here because he was benched in Week 3, didn’t play well, but they won in Week 4 and would be without Davante Adams in Week 5 again, matching up against a surprisingly tough Broncos defense.

Mack Hollins and Mike Williams both cashed for us under 2.5 receptions with two a pop. They were both a bit sweaty as Mack Hollins saw five targets in the first half but saw just one in the second half and didn’t catch it. Williams only had three targets on 54 attempts from Aaron Rodgers, a testament to my analysis of his man/zone target rate splits being correct.

Tyler Johnson under 10.5 receiving yards scared some people, but he only ran seven routes and saw zero targets. Even if he saw a target and caught a ball, his ADOT is so low he would still go under 2.5. If every Week could be like Week 5, I would be retiring early. It's important to note that they won't always be this awesome. At the end of the day, all I care about is profiting alongside subscribers!

Here is the full list of my plays from Week 5:

• Zack Moss U45.5 rushing yards
• Gardner Minshew U193.5 passing yards
• Mike Williams U2.5 receptions
• Zach Ertz U28.5 receiving yards
• Mack Hollins U2.5 receptions
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba U48.5 receiving yards
• Amari Cooper O52.5 receiving yards
• Daniel Jones U187.5 passing yards
• Trey Sermon U13.5 attempts
• Tyler Johnson U10.5 receiving yards
• Alvin Kamara under 67.5 rushing yards

As you may notice, I love playing unders and am now hitting them at a 65% clip this season.

If you want all of my plays, you can get a full-season subscription for just $10 with our partners at Rebet. Just download the app and purchase $10 of Rebet cash using promo code: 4for4Bet!

Check out this page for more details!

Week 6 NFL Player Props

Josh Palmer under 32.5 receiving yards (-119 CZRS, -120 DK, -115 Builder, -113 31.5 FD)

Joint play with Monotone/Stu (@Monotonefootbal on Twitter)

I expect minimal passing success and passing volume from the Chargers here given how well the Broncos defense has played and Harbaugh's run-first mentality. The Chargers are also getting back two of their starting offensive lineman and will likely try and force the issue on the ground.

Palmer plays the majority of his snaps on the outside meaning he will draw one of Patrick Surtain or Riley Moss. Both players have played incredibly well this season with Moss ranking 7th in PFF's cornerback grades. Only 6 WRs have cleared 30 yards in 5 weeks and four of them were predominantly slot wide receivers.

Beyond a tough matchup, Palmer's average depth of target this year is just 8.8, very similar to McConkey's (8.7) while QJ's is all the way to 17.5. According to Fantasy Points Data, in the 3 games Palmer has played he has just a 14.9% first-read target share which ranks 4th on the Chargers. This is behind QJ (31.9%), McConkey (25.5%) and Hayden Hurst (15%).

The coaching staff/Herbert don't really seem to be too interested in designing plays to Palmer and even if they do, the targets are relatively close to the line of scrimmage.

Risk 1.19 units to win 1 unit

Drake Maye under 18.5 completions (-110 DraftKings)

The Texans are allowing the lowest completion rate in the league at 51.7% and are allowing just 16.2 completions per game. This would be concerning for any QB (they just held Josh Allen to 9 completions last week in negative game script) but we now have rookie Drake Maye making his first start playing behind a pathetic OL with no talent at WR.

Maye is known for aggressively pushing the ball downfield into lower-completion rate situations. He led this QB draft class in air yards per attempt and wasn't all that accurate when he did (49.4% on-target rate, H/T Rich Hribar).

The Texans are 9th in pressure rate and have shown a tendency to blitz QBs behind fragile OLs (see Caleb Williams in Week 2 who they blitzed at the league's highest rate). This is very bad news for the Patriots who allowed Brissett to be pressured at the highest rate of the league (46.5%).

I would expect the Patriots to try and emphasize the running game early and often here. Even with the Patriots facing immense negative game script multiple times this season, Brissett didn't attempt more than 34 passes in a single game. He averaged 15.8 completions per game and only cleared 18.5 in one game (finished with 19).

This was originally released at -102 on FD in the subscriber discord.

Risk 1.02 units to win 1 unit

[subscribe_betting]

Andrei Iosivas under 2.5 receptions (-128 FD, -130 DK, -131 CZRS)

This is hard for me since I may be Andrei's #1 fan but since Tee Higgins returned in Week 3 Iosivas has games with targets of 5, 1, and 1. His targets per route run is 0.11 (lower than Mike Gesicki, Higgins, and Chase). On top of a low TPRR, since Higgins returned Iosivas has run over 60% of his routes from the slot which means he'll mostly draw the stud rookie slot corner, Dru Phillips. Phillips has allowed just 37 yards all season on 8 receptions. He is one of PFF's highest graded corners despite matching up against Justin Jefferson, CD Lamb, and JSN for some snaps. He also isn't on the injury report this week. I don't mind yardage under here although Iosivas' ADOT has spiked massively the last two weeks and he has lines of 1-39, 1-29. It's tough to imagine he keeps up that level of efficiency either way here but I prefer receptions since i'm not even convinced he sees 3 targets here.

Risk 1.28 units to win 1 unit

A.J. Brown overs 68.5 receiving yards (-113 FD, -120 DK, fine elsewhere up to 70)

Brown crushes man coverage and cover-3 looks, two things the Browns defense are league leaders in. I'm not going to re-write the stats here and will pull directly from Rich Hribar and Dalton Kates: "Brown has been targeted on 37.5% of his routes against man coverage instead of a 22.9% rate against zone coverage. Over that period, he averages 3.39 yards per route run against man coverage, third in the NFL behind CeeDee Lamb (3.79) and Justin Jefferson (3.55). Browns play 76% in single high coverage highest in the league Brown’s stats in single high last year per Fantasy Points: 38% TPRR, 33.8% target share, 45.7% air yard share, 3.77 YPRR, 42% first read, 45.7% of the team's total receiving yards in this formation." Brown had 5-119 in Week 1 and now has an awesome matchup returning from a hamstring injury. This number will likely look criminally low in hindsight so I like sprinkling some alts as well. Also, Grant Delpit is out and Denzel Ward is injured and won't be 100% if he does play.

Risk 1.13 units to win 1 unit on over 68.5

Risk 0.25 units on 100+ receiving yards at +290 at Caesars

Risk 0.1 units on 120+ at +550 at Caesars

Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions (-114 at FD, -115 everywhere else)

Evans matches up against Marshon Lattimore this week again who he has squared off against 12 times in his career. He has fewer than 5 receptions in 10-of-12 matchups and those came in 2017 and 2018. Beyond the tough matchup, the Bucs square off against rookie QB Spencer Rattler in his first start and the Saints dilapidated OL. This is expected to be a slow, low-scoring game with a 41 point total meaning we likely won't see a ton of volume from Mayfield either. With volume and efficiency/matchup concerns I like this under to -130.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Spencer Rattler under 189.5 passing yards (-120 DK, Better numbers on MGM and 365, fine to 185)

Rattler is making his first career start after being drafted in the 5th round of the NFL Draft this year. Rattler was a five-star recruit heading into college but mostly struggled, playing at both Oklahoma and South Carolina. He was actually benched for a freshman Caleb Williams (who came in and crushed) after playing so poorly. He then played at South Carolina where he had an average junior season and a slightly better senior season. It took 5 years for Rattler to look put together. He now enters a game against a Bucs team that loves to blitz and is getting multiple key starters back on defense. This will be without the Saints starting Center and OG Cesar Ruiz DNP WED/TH of this week and looks unlikely to go again. In his best year at South Carolina his stats against pressure were unsettling. He completed just 47% of his passes with 5 TDs and 5 INTS. Derek Carr himself already went under this number twice this season. Even with their injuries, the Bucs D has only allowed 6.7 YPA and held Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels under this number as well. Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit

Christian Kirk under 52.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)

Kirk draws a tough matchup this week as the Bears pass defense has been stellar, ranking 4th in dropback success rate, 1st in per-dropback EPA, and are top-10 in pressure rate despite bringing pressure at a bottom-10 rate. Meanwhile, their run defense has been below average, and we could see the Jaguars opt to run a bit more than normal.

The Bears play a ton of Cover-3, and Christian Kirk has just a 12% target share against that coverage. Beyond the basic matchup concerns, Evan Engram is expected to play, which adds even more competition for Kirk, who already has 4-or-fewer targets in 3-of-5 games and now draws his toughest matchup with more target competition.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

D'Andre Swift under 61.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings)

This number is massively inflated after the last two weeks. On the season he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and his best output has come in significant positive game script against weak run defenses. He now draws the Jaguars (7th in rushing success rate allowed, 3.81 yards per carry) who are also not very good at defending the pass (23rd in dropback SR, 32nd in pass D EPA). The next best team Swift played in run defense was the Colts (8th rushing SR) where he rushed for 20 yards on 13 carries. The other four games: 10 carries for 30 yards (3.0 YPC) vs TEN (14th in rushing SR) 14 carries for 18 yards (1.3 YPC) vs HOU (14th in rushing SR) 16 carries for 93 yards (5.8 ypc) vs LAR (31st in rushing SR) 21 carries for 73 yards (3.5 YPC) vs CAR (21st in rushing SR) I don't think the Bears run game is magically fixed after playing two bad run defenses. The Bears are also small favorites here making it less likely they blow the Jags out and run the ball a ton.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!

This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.