Joe Mixon is in Line for Huge Fantasy Football Season
Joe Mixon has long held one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in all of football. Being one of the few workhorse running backs in the NFL on one of the league's best offenses is a great spot for elite fantasy success. Yet, Mixon has not always delivered on that promise. He's far from an elite talent, which can make hitting that "draft" button more difficult. That's because every time you do, there are more talented players left on the board. However, when it comes to the running back position, situation, role, and volume can overcome talent deficiencies. This is true in Mixon's case.
Yahoo! fantasy managers are currently selecting Mixon as the RB16 in half-PPR leagues. Despite poor efficiency in 2022, he finished as the RB8 in half-PPR PPG, and in 2021, he was RB4. This would seem to make Mixon an incredible value, a notion that becomes even more clear when factoring in the exit of longtime veteran backup, Samaje Perine, and the signing of left tackle, Orlando Brown Jr. There have been outside circumstances that have been at work to keep his ADP in check, but one of them was just ironed out, making Mixon a valuable pick at ADP right now.
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Joe Mixon's High-Volume Role
Mixon's play on the field has left a lot to be desired. The numbers bear that out, as I'll discuss later. This has often been the case for Mixon, but it has rarely stopped him from being a valuable fantasy asset. Since 2018, his second season in the NFL, Mixon has finished as a top-12 running back in half-PPR PPG four times. His worst finish in five years has been RB18. During this time span, Mixon has averaged 19 touches per game and at least 89 scrimmage yards per game each season. Excluding his rookie year, Mixon has been on pace for at least 328 touches and 1,513 scrimmage yards every year. His workload has been incredibly consistent and something fantasy managers have been able to trust for five straight seasons.
The volume has always been excellent, but it actually got better in 2022. He had more receptions (60) last year than he had targets in any of the last four years. This is despite playing in 14 games after having played in 16 games each year from 2019–2021. Mixon recorded a 14.2% target share, which was the ninth-highest in the NFL among running backs. His 75 targets were the sixth most in the league. Perine had 51 targets of his own last year and he's now a Denver Bronco. The backups in Cincinnati include Trayveon Williams, who is a sixth-round pick from 2019, Chris Evans, a sixth-round pick from 2021, and Chase Brown, a fifth-round pick from this year's Draft. The competition behind Mixon is not very threatening.
Target shares when Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon were all on the field together in 2022:
Chase 25%
Mixon 24% 👀
Higgins 21%
Hurst 20%
Boyd 14%
Small sample (218) BUT Mixon's passing game role was revitalized last year. If it continues + no suspension, top-six upside.— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) June 14, 2023
Mixon only found the end zone nine times last season despite having 270 touches. He registered 46 red zone touches, which was the sixth-most in the league despite missing three games. TJ Hernandez identified Mixon as one running back who should be expected to score more touchdowns this season. In his article, Mixon was found to have scored 3.5 fewer touchdowns than his expectation. Another positive for Mixon's 2023 fantasy football prospects is the strength of the Cincinnati offensive line.
Justin Edwards ranked the Bengals' offensive line as the 14th-best unit in the NFL. The Bengals signed former Kansas City Chiefs left tackle, Orlando Brown Jr., which should give their offensive line a big boost. Edwards stated,
"Cincinnati is basically bringing back their rotation for this year, setting up plenty of camp battles along the way, with the idea of churning out the best possible starting five in front of Joe Burrow. The team is returning all eight of their top snap leaders from 2022, as well as adding Orlando Brown, who will be starting at left tackle, and Cody Ford, who will try to force his way as a backup guard."
Joe Mixon's Poor Efficiency Metrics
Mixon has long operated as Cincinati's starting running back. This role has provided him with plenty of touches and opportunities. However, he hasn't always made the most of them. Despite having 270 or more touches in four out of the past five seasons, he has just one season with double-digit touchdowns. Unfortunately, Mixon has underperformed in the scoring department for most of his career. He's also been one of the more inefficient running backs in the NFL for the past four seasons.
| Year | Rush Yards Over Expectation/Carry | Rush EPA/Carry | Broken Tackle % | YAC/Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.45 | -0.06 | 3.8% | 1.5 |
| 2021 | -0.01 | -0.09 | 6.8% | 1.8 |
| 2020 | -0.89 | -0.18 | 2.5% | 1.7 |
| 2019 | -0.41 | -0.08 | 8.6% | 2.3 |
It's easy to see Mixon has been far from efficient. Some will go as far as to say he's a below-average talent. All of that may or may not be true, but how much of it matters? Mixon is entering his seventh season with the Bengals and for five straight seasons the team has given him 19 or more touches per game. This is despite the poor rushing efficiency stats noted above. If it didn't matter before, why should we believe it will matter this year? Especially since nothing about their offseason says they have different plans for the 2023 season. They allowed Perine to walk in free agency and have since done absolutely nothing to replace him, which brings us to a tale as old as time in fantasy football—volume is king.
we must remember that it doesn't matter if a running back is good. coaches don't care about nerdy rushing metrics. all they really want is a guy who will gain three yards and not fumble.
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) May 17, 2023
Joe Mixon's Potential Suspension
While there had been rumors that Cincinnati could release Mixon, those ended just a few days ago when he agreed to a pay cut to stay with the organization this season. This was just one risk associated with the former Sooner. He's also been charged with a misdemeanor charge of aggravated menacing. It's possible he could be suspended for pointing a gun at a female. You likely remember the disgusting video of Mixon punching a female while in college, but it's worth noting he would be classified as a first-time offender since that event took place before he was drafted. This unknown situation could make it difficult for drafters, however, his ADP rests at the backend of round four, which helps alleviate some of the risks.
The Bottom Line
- Mixon is currently being drafted as the RB16 and is ranked as 4for4's RB17.
- With the loss of Perine, Mixon could be on the verge of his biggest role in the passing game.
- Cincinnati has long trusted Mixon with a high number of touches and he should be expected to resume his bell-cow role.
- Cincinnati has one of the strongest offenses in the NFL, which should present him with plenty of scoring opportunities.
- The Bengals should have one of the stronger offensive lines in the league, which could help Mixon's poor efficiency.
- Mixon possesses RB1 upside and is an attractive target in the fourth-round
- He does have some risks due to the possibility of a suspension.
