Week 5 PrizePicks Prop Picks
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost.
New at 4for4: The PrizePicks Prop Tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 4 PrizePicks Record: 5-2
Season Record: 19-13
Week 5 Picks
Matt Ryan Under 264.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 220.9
If you call back to last week’s article, I included Derrick Henry’s rushing yard prop as an over because the Jets have a run funnel defense. That still applies as their defense is a top-10 unit in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the QB, WR and TE positions. The Falcons will also be without top wideout Calvin Ridley (personal). Even if this number was appealing, Matt Ryan has topped it twice in four games.
Zach Wilson Over 240.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 259.7
Zach Wilson has topped this prop in two of four games, which is not great. What I do like is that he played well against a similarly bad defense in Week 4, will have all of his receivers healthy for the first time this season and he is facing a Falcons defense that has allowed at least 264 passing yards each week. Atlanta allows an average of 82.5 rushing yards per game and they have slowed down good backs all season. Atlanta is also giving up an average of 51 yards through the air to backs.
Baker Mayfield Under 11.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 10.6
Baker Mayfield has flirted with topping this prop thrice but has only gone over once. News came out this week that Mayfield is playing with a partially torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. The last thing the Browns need is to lose their quarterback to a scramble. This is a bet on the Browns asking Mayfield to play with self-preservation in mind.
Damien Williams Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 64.4
The Bears' lead back for the next month, Damien Williams, gets a plus matchup on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas is 30th in running back aFPA and they have allowed at least one back to top 65 yards three times this season. The only time the Raiders did not was against the Steelers, who ran the ball just 12 times. Williams could be in line for as much as 20 carries in Week 5, just one week after Chicago topped 180 yards on the ground.
Najee Harris Under 56.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 56.2
I am riding close to the sun with this prop, but Najee Harris has topped this prop in one game, while rushing for 45 or fewer yards in his other three. The Denver Broncos ranked third in running back aFPA and should force Ben Roethlisberger to throw the ball. Heading into Week 5, Harris is averaging 3.36 yards per carry. To reach 56.5 yards, he would need 16.8 carries. Harris’s season-high in carries is 16.
Keelan Cole Over 5.5 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 3.4
Keelan Cole missed Week 1 due to injury and has followed each week with increased snaps and production. He is the Jets’ No. 2 WR opposite Corey Davis in two-receiver sets and gets a Falcons defense allowing 41.5 full-PPR points to the position per game. Surely, Cole can crave out 5.5 of those points one week after collecting 12.2, and don’t call me Shirley.
Derrick Henry Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 29.5
Derrick Henry has topped 14.5 receiving yards each week this season. The Titans are preparing for Week 5 as if Julio Jones is not playing. After last week’s dud from the unproven receivers behind Jones and A.J. Brown, Henry may as well be the No. 2 WR for Tennessee.
DeVante Parker Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 74.9
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are devoid of cornerbacks due to injuries and Will Fuller is hurt for Miami. Dolphins co-offensive coordinator George Godsey said DeVante Parker needs to be more involved early in games. The Bucs have an elite run defense, making the passing game that much more important. Parker has topped 52.5 receiving yards twice this season and it is no coincidence that those games happened when he played at least 83% of Miami’s offensive snaps.