Week 18 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 17 Record: 2-5
Season Record: 71-52
The joke’s on you, I am doing this article through the playoffs! Thank you to 4for4 for allowing and wanting to extend this piece until the end of the season. Although, after last week’s results, maybe this is going to be a tire fire.
Week 18 Picks
Davis Mills Over 210.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 213.7 Passing Yards
I like this for two reasons. Davis Mills will have to throw to keep this game competitive because the Tennessee Titans are fourth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs (aFPA) and are only allowing 4.11 yards per carry. Also, if the Chiefs lose Saturday night, there is a realistic chance the Titans bench starters on both sides of the ball, giving Mills a potentially weaker secondary to throw against. Mills has topped 210 passing yards twice in his past four games and missed a third by two yards.
Darrel Williams Under 56.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 54.9 Rushing Yards
Despite Clyde Edwards-Helaire being ruled out, Darrel Williams is not an attractive player to choose the over his rushing prop. The Broncos are a top-10 rushing defense. In the two games Williams topped 56 rushing yards against top rushing defenses this season, he needed 40 carries to collect 130 yards. His yards per carry in those two games were 2.95 and 3.68. The Broncos' secondary will be missing two of its top cornerbacks
Taysom Hill Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 42.7 Rushing Yards
Bucking the beloved John Paulsen’s projection because it feels like a smashmouth win week for the Saints. The Falcons allowed Josh Allen to rush for 44 yards and two scores in sub-optimal conditions. Allowing Taysom Hill to get free in a dome is far from ideal. Hill rushed for 132 yards in two starts against the Falcons last season.
Alvin Kamara Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 54.5 Rushing Yards
Same as with Hill, but I expect Alvin Kamara to be the crowd killer on offense for the Saints. If Kamara can flirt with 20 carries, he should be able to crush this prop. In games with at least 16 carries, Kamara has rushed for 83, 89, 120 (twice), 71, 51 and 61 yards. Three of those games with over 58 yards came on the road, with his 51-yard effort also taking place away from New Orleans.
David Montgomery Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 92.7 Rushing Yards
I would like to thank PrizePicks for this soft line. The Minnesota Vikings were already a poor run defense with DT Michael Pierce healthy, but he is doubtful for Week 18. David Montgomery has averaged 106.33 yards per game on the ground against Minnesota in the three games he has played against them, including 113 in 2019’s season finale against Minnesota.
Cooper Kupp Over 113.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 118.2 Receiving Yards
The 49ers' secondary is atrocious, allowing four 100-yard receivers in the past 10 weeks, including Cooper Kupp (122 yards in Week 10). You may have heard Kupp is 12 catches and 136 receiving yards away from the single-season records, and the yardage total is more realistic than total catches. Kupp has topped 12 catches once this season, but has topped 113 receiving yards eight times.
Devin Singletary Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 25.2 Receiving Yards
Devin Singletary has topped this prop in two of his past four games, and with the slop fest of Week 17’s game, it is okay to throw his goose egg in the receiving game out the window. The New York Jets have allowed an average of 6.19 receptions and 54.81 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Singletary has been the lead back for the past month and only needs one or two catches to top this prop.
