4for4 Betting Recap: Week 15

Welcome to the 4for4 football betting recap. My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen, Greg Smith, Anthony Stalter, TJ Calkins and Dalton Kates. Each week, I track their bets and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.

When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks. There are two points you need to know:

1. You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
2. The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.

Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack successful areas. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.

Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win one unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from any one bet to win more than one unit.

With that being said, let's look at Week 15! The week isn't quite over yet and actual results could slightly vary as someone might add a play or two for tonight's two games.

Skewed Stats Alert: Connor, Ryan and Sam all hit a 37-1 bet in Week 8, skewing their props up for the year. The weekly and year-to-date records will include it but the analysis was removed since it carried so much of them that week. All three of them risked 0.25 units to win 9.25 units. The prop was Elijah Mitchell to lead the league in rushing yards for Sunday games only.

Ryan Noonan

Week 15: 9-10, 47.37%, -3.03 units

YTD: 146-128-1 53.09%, 19.07 units

Dan’s Analysis: It was a bad week for Ryan as the Packers failed to cover the spread of -2 from his lookahead, and Derek Carr getting hurt versus the Browns all but killed his Hunter Renfrow over bet. That was the difference between profiting and losing

The good news is Ryan is doing well in WR props for the year, currently sitting at 43-31 (58.11%). I also feel confident in a lot of his season-long props (see end of article).

Connor Allen

Week 15: 10-5, 66.67%, 3.57 units

YTD: 136-106, 56.20%, 31.98 units

Dan’s Analysis: Connor continues on with his winning ways, eclipsing the 30 units mark while profiting in 11 of the last 12 weeks. Connor’s easiest win of the year, and why you should join the Discord, was Bills to score the first field goal of the game as Zane Gonzalez, the Panthers' kicker, got hurt during warm-ups and the books were slow to react. This was given out multiple times and the Discord profited massively off this prop and Bills longest field goal made.

Not much to take away besides the fact Connor is at 60%+ for WR and QB props. The downside this week is that some of his season-long props aren't looking so hot.

Sam Hoppen

Week 15: 3-3, 50%, -0.29 units

YTD: 38-31, 55.07%, 14.59 units

Dan’s Analysis: It was a down week for Sam as the Vikings' passing offense puked all over themselves versus a Bears team missing four cornerbacks. Not much to take away from Sam this week, but I feel confident in grading three of his season-long futures props:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns — Loss
• Baker Mayfield Over 3,750.5 Passing Yards, 99% — Loss*
• Kenny Golladay Under 1,050.5 Receiving Yards — Win

*Baker Mayfield will need a miracle over the next three games to get over this number.

Greg Smith

Week 15: 3-4, 42.86%, -1.45 units

YTD: 66-60-1, 51.97%, 3.85 units

Dan’s Analysis: Greg is working in some of the most efficient gambling markets out there. What I mean is that a half-point to a full point is the difference between having a winning weekend versus a losing weekend. With totals, you will see 1- or 2-point swings, but both of these markets are by far the hardest to win in the long term. For example, in Week 3, Greg had such bad beats on Raiders -3.5 and under 45.5. If the Raiders do their job and don’t allow the Dolphins to score in the end, he goes 4-4 instead of 2-6. That series had a net swing of 4.2 units that cost him 2.2 units.

A down week for Greg, but one area he excels at worth highlighting is that he's sitting at 34-25 betting against the spread.

Dalton Kates

Week 15: -0.54 units

YTD: 12.94 units

Dan’s Analysis: Dalton is the Weekend Specialist at 4for4 and actually the one who tipped everyone off to the Elijah Mitchell most rushing yards Sunday only bet from Week 8. If you look at his name on the tracker, you will notice a lot of long shots, an area he has done well this year. If you didn’t read his Week 10 article, Dalton has hit some specials already but he wasn’t “technically” giving out 4for4 picks yet so you will be seeing me reiterate each week his tracked record versus actual record is going to be different in the tracker. Using his Week 10 article, Dalton started at 16.8 units just betting specials only.

What you don’t see from Dalton is a win-loss record. Since Dalton is working with a lot of long shots, a win-loss record is a bad way to measure him because so many long shots are losers and one winner completely changes a week and YTD record when looking at units. Lastly, Dalton is doing some regular weekly props along with long shots.

Dalton once again was sweating a big long shot. He gave out D'Onta Foreman to lead Sunday in rushing yards and was very close to winning that bet. Foreman was five yards shy of winning this bet, and he might have gotten there if he was forced out of the game for some plays due to injury.

Betting with Dalton has some very high highs and very low lows (always gamble responsibly, especially on specials bets). He didn’t win this bet but the fact Dalton has had a lot of weeks sweating massive longshots shows you Dalton has figured something out and has a chance to hit another longshot before the end of the year.

Anthony Stalter

Week 15: 1-2, 33.33%, -1.20 units

YTD: 23-23, 50%, -1.09 units

TJ Calkins

Week 15: 2-1, 66.67%, 0.9 units

YTD: 18-22, 45%, -6.20 units

Dan’s Analysis: Both Anthony and TJ suffer from small sample sizes. I just wanted them in the article as the entire 4for4 crew for NFL is being tracked by me. The record will speak for both because deep-diving them wouldn't yield much analysis.

Futures Bets Update (Connor & Ryan)

Disclaimer: These won’t be officially graded until after Week 18 as most books require 17 games to be played (keywords: 17 games played). Week 17 games will have a lot of these bets settled but you won’t be paid out until after Week 18. Unless the NFL cancels games, all bets are actionable and players must play one snap for any player props to count.

Ryan's Futures

Dan’s Analysis: The best way to analyze Ryan’s futures is by breaking them into groups of likely versus unlikely winners...

Current Winners:

• Matthew Stafford Over 26 Passing Touchdowns
• Giants Under 7.5 Wins
• Bears Under 7.5 Wins

Currently Questionable (50/50 shot at cashing)

• Michael Carter Over 575.5 Rushing Yards
• Bucs Over 12 Wins

These two bets will most likely be determined in Week 16. The Bucs can’t lose to hit the over, but another loss could make this a push. Playing on a bad offense with Zach Wilson is tough enough for Michael Carter, but he has a rough upcoming three-game stretch: Jaguars, Bucs and Bills.

Currently Doubtful (25% chance to cash)

• Bills Over 11 Wins
• Browns to Win the Division
• Washington to Win the Division

The Browns are alive but Baker Mayfield's health is questionable, along with plenty of COVID-19 concerns for Week 16 onward. Meanwhile, Washington's divisional odds are all but dead. The Bills' best-case scenario is a push, but they must win out. Buffalo's remaining schedule is @ Patriots, vs. Falcons and vs Jets. If the Bills win this week against the Patriots this will most likely push.

The rest of Ryan's plays are at about a 75% chance of winning.

Connor’s Futures

Dan’s Analysis: Unfortunately for Connor, his futures aren’t looking good.

Probable Winners:

• Lions Under 5 Wins
• Emmanuel Sanders Over 600.5 Receiving Yards
• Myles Gaskin Under 800.5 Rushing Yards
• Kadarius Toney Under 505.5 Receiving Yards
• Cowboys Over 436.5 Total Points
• Texans Under 4 Wins

The Lions and Texans winning more games is highly unlikely. The Lions need to lose one more game and Houston needs to lose out for both of these to cash. Kadarius Toney's health isn’t looking good. If he does suit up, he's playing on a putrid Giants offense. Myles Gaskins sits at 580 yards but Duke Johnson looked like the better back last week. Dallas has scored 401 points to date, with three more games to play.

Questionable Winners:

• Carson Wentz Over 3,875.5 Passing Yards
• Cowboys to Lead the NFL in Points Scored

Carson Wentz sits at 3,005 yards but the Colts are very committed to the run and giving Carson Wentz largely short and easy throws. Carson Wentz would need to average 291 yards per game to go over.

Cowboys to lead the league in scoring points is what will save Connor’s futures. He gave this play out for a half unit at 16/1. Their 401 points are second to Tampa's 410 points scored. The Colts (398) and Bills (304) trail behind them with games they will be motivated to win or at least to try and score largely. All four of these teams could sit players in Week 18. To cash this bet, Connor needs the Cowboys to have a chance for the No. 1 seed as I don’t expect Cowboys backups to score a lot if they fall out of contention.

The rest of Connor's plays are looking very doubtful.