Week 13 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Dec 05, 2020

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Week 12 recap: The most tilting loss from last week had to be Damien Harris. His prop was 48.5 rushing yards. He had 55 rushing yards in the third quarter. We were in the clear, or so we thought. The Patriots dialed up a pitch play that somehow lost eight yards! Eight! This put us at 47 rushing yards. I figured there was still enough time to get two more rushing yards. Nope. He had one more carry for zero yards the rest of the game. Even though we should have won that prop, it was still another profitable week.

I’ll say it pretty much every week, but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat, you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my Island Game plays. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. We have had a lot of issues with props getting steamed quickly I put out on Friday and Saturday, so we made it possible for our subscribers to receive push notifications to their phone whenever I post a play. To access this feature on Discord, go to “Role Assign” and hit the money bag sign under the “Weekly Prop Plays” post! On to Week 13…

Week 13 DraftKings Player Prop Bets

Tyler Boyd Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Brandon Allen draws the start for the second straight game and matches up against another stingy defense in Miami. Last week's final score of 19-17 makes it seem like the Bengals offense put together a decently competent game against the Giants. In reality, they had 155 total yards of offense, returned a kick for a touchdown, scored a garbage-time touchdown and had field-goal drives that started from the 48 and 38. Brandon Allen completed just 17-of-29 passes for 136 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Over the past five weeks, the Giants rank eighth in EPA per dropback. In that same time span, the Dolphins' defense ranks fifth. Tyler Boyd technically led the team in targets (6), but he turned those six targets into just 15 yards on three receptions. There’s certainly a chance Boyd catches 4-5 passes, but with how low his aDOT is, combined with Brandon Allen’s erratic play, it gives me plenty of confidence to believe he doesn’t sniff 53 receiving yards.

Risk: 1.12 units to win 1 unit

Alvin Kamara Under 2.5 Receptions (+115)

Since Taysom Hill took over as the Saints' starting quarterback, Alvin Kamara has been targeted a combined three times, catching just one of those targets. There is a chance the Saints decide to start using him more frequently in the passing game but it certainly won’t come from Hill’s own decision-making. As we have seen from other running quarterbacks, they prefer to run the ball themselves rather than dump the ball off to their running back. I think more often than not Kamara winds up with one or two receptions rather than three, especially considering he hasn’t even seen three targets in a game Hill has started.

Risk 1: unit to win 1.15 units