11 IDPs Who Are Being Overvalued In 2020
Drafts are kicking into high gear. We've looked at the IDPs who are being undervalued, now, we're going to look at IDPs who are being overvalued and where they are being drafted. I am here to stop you from taking these guys as you can get better value elsewhere. If you're playing in some crazy scoring where sacks are 20 pts, or you're getting points for QB hits, things will change. For these purposes, I'm looking at a balanced scoring system:
- 1.75pts solo tackle
- 0.5pts assisted tackle
- 4pts sack
I'm referencing MFL ADP data when talking about the draft position of these IDPs.
Darius Leonard, OLB, Indianapolis Colts
I love Darius Leonard. He’s an elite player already heading into his third year. Unless your scoring system is set so that IDPs are scoring the equivalent of RBs or WRs, I’m not sure I can pull the trigger on an IDP in the fifth round. In the interest of full disclosure, I did take an IDP - Joe Schobert - in the fifth round of the IDP Guys Invitational. In 2019, Schobert finished as the 17th overall scorer in this format. I will be honest, a bit of FOMO hit. In most tackle heavy or even balanced scoring, I’m probably not looking at my first IDP until the eighth or ninth rounds.
So, let’s say you take Leonard in the sixth, you risk missing on Terry McLaurin’s breakout, Courtland Sutton or Ronald Jones (RB depth is drying up around this spot). In a recent draft, I took my first IDP in the eighth round, so here’s how my build went:
I'd rather built my offense out first than lose out on some potential depth by targeting an IDP in the fifth round.
Jordan Hicks, ILB, Arizona Cardinals
If you’re banking on another 150 tackle season in 2020, I think you might be in for a disappointment if you’re counting on him as your anchor. The Cardinals added some pieces to their LB group - Isaiah Simmons and De'Vondre Campbell - so he’s going to have competition for tackle opportunities. This isn’t Hasson Reddick and some other JAGs (just a guy). As of now, Hicks is going around the 10th round - ahead of Zach Cunningham, Deion Jones, Lavonte David, Leighton Vander Esch and Demario Davis. I’d rather have any of those guys, but if you draft Hicks, make sure to pair him with one of the LBs mentioned.
Kenneth Murray, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
He’s already dealing with soreness and has missed a few days - which is not a good thing for a rookie, as they’re already behind thanks to the lack of minicamps and preseason games. When he was on the field, he was with the second team behind Drue Tranquill and Denzel Perryman. As of now, he’s being drafted as the LB21 - so LB2 territory - ahead of guys like Shaq Thompson, Jayon Brown and Matt Milano. As of now, Murray is a buyer beware and I have removed him from my projected three-down LB table until further notice.
Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals
Simmons is another rookie who I think is being overdrafted in redraft leagues. De’Vondre Campbell is the Debbie Downer that’s suppressing the value of the Cardinals linebackers. Campbell is receiving high praise at camp and his athleticism should improve their tight end coverage and keep Simmons off the field for certain packages. Simmons is an athlete, so while he might be concentrating on the LB position, he could be used at other positions, especially with the recent Robert Alford injury. As of now, as the LB17, he’s overvalued in redraft.
TJ Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Watt is going to be scoring format dependent. In my tackle-heavy league, where sacks are 3pts and solos, are 2pts, Watt finished as the LB35. Worth drafting, but not as the LB6 where he’s currently being taken. Now, if you’re in a league that’s using the EDGE or he’s classified as a DE, it changes things. Same with scoring - if you add in tackles for loss or and bump up sacks to five or six points, his value rises. But I’m not taking him as the sixth LB overall ahead of Joe Schobert or Tremaine Edmunds. Even in the IDP Guys scoring format, he finished as the LB13. Great player, no doubt, but he’s scoring system dependent.
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