Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Broncos at Raiders

Sep 09, 2019
Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Broncos at Raiders

Even though Antonio Brown won't be on the field for tonight's Broncos/Raiders game, his presence (or lack thereof) will be felt as it has had a substantial impact on the fantasy outlooks for numerous players. We're going to look at those impacts and try and help you find the players that will give you the best edge in constructing your single-game DFS lineups tonight.

Let's break down the game in more detail...

Injuries

It appears Nelson will play, but if he doesn't it's a bump to the volume of Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Grant, and possibly Jalen Richard.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Denver -2.5; Over/Under 42.5

Vegas expects points to be scored in this game and also figures the home team Saints to win comfortably. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 30%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 30%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 10%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 5%

What Players Benefit Most From Potential Gameflow

Close, low-scoring game (<40 points)

Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points)

Close, high-scoring game (50+ points)

Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game

Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game

Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game

Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game

Blowout for the away team, average or high-scoring game

Pricing and Projections

These projections are taken from the industry-leading 4for4 DFS projections at the time this article was written. The prices listed are the default single-game prices on both sites. For the Captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and subsequent fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster positions.

DraftKings and FanDuel DEN-OAK Prices and Projections
Name Team Pos FD Sal FD Proj DK Sal DK Proj
Brandon McManus DEN K 10000 7.8 3600 7.8
Broncos DST DEN DST N/A N/A 5200 7.3
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 11500 8.8 8000 10.6
DaeSean Hamilton DEN WR 9000 6.5 4000 8.3
Daniel Carlson OAK K 9500 8.1 3200 8.1
Darren Waller OAK TE 8500 7.1 6400 9.1
DeAndre Washington OAK RB 5000 3.9 1200 4.6
Derek Carr OAK QB 14000 13.1 11000 13.8
Derek Carrier OAK TE 5000 0.4 200 0.5
Devontae Booker DEN RB 5000 1.9 200 2.4
Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR 11000 8.7 9800 11.1
Foster Moreau OAK TE 5000 1.1 600 1.5
Hunter Renfrow OAK WR 6000 5.1 5600 6.6
J.J. Nelson OAK WR 5000 4.6 2600 5.7
Jalen Richard OAK RB 7500 5.2 3800 6.7
Jeff Heuerman DEN TE 5000 2 400 2.7
Joe Flacco DEN QB 13000 14.2 10000 15
Josh Jacobs OAK RB 13000 13.6 9200 14.9
Noah Fant DEN TE 7000 5 4800 6.4
Phillip Lindsay DEN RB 13500 11.6 9000 13.3
Raiders DST OAK DST N/A N/A 3400 6.3
Royce Freeman DEN RB 10500 9.6 4400 11
Ryan Grant OAK WR 5000 3.9 200 4.9
Tim Patrick DEN WR 5000 2.8 1000 3.6
Tyrell Williams OAK WR 8000 9.4 7400 11.9

Roster Construction

The Captain/MVP Slot

On FanDuel, you're looking at mainly one of three players. Either of the starting QB's or Josh Jacobs, the new bellcow RB (supposedly) in Oakland. On DraftKings, it's a bit murkier as you'll see from the optimal lineup construction breakdown below. Jacobs is the top candidate in that breakdown and Flacco shows up in a good percentage, but you can throw in the Denver RB's (both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman) into the equation. Tyrell Williams is the only WR who shows up in any significance and he's the only one I'd consider in the MVP slot. Vegas thinks this will be a low-scoring game and I tend to agree. The probable outcomes above emphasize that. I'll mainly be sticking with the RBs and a smattering of QBs in the multiplier spots with a small percentage of Tyrell Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Emmanuel Sanders to round out my rosters.

Ownership

The players that make the best plays in the multiplier spots will also likely be the highest owned. I expect Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams, Phillip Lindsay, and the two QB's to garner the most ownership. The kickers will probably top the 20% mark and I can see a world where the Broncos DST is above that mark as well. Others that I expect to top 20% ownership include Darren Waller, Courtland Sutton, Emmanuel Sanders, and possibly Royce Freeman.

Potential Low-Owned Difference Makers

Hunter Renfroe will potentially garner ownership, but I think his price it a bit too high to get substantial push into lineups and in fact, I think the prices of his WR counterparts Ryan Grant and J.J. Nelson make them infinitely better plays as they afford much more salary relief and might even be starting ahead of Renfroe (if you watched any of the pre-season games, those two were on the field ahead of Renfroe). I like both of them, even if they don't show up in a lot of optimal lineups. Especially if you think the game script has the Raiders behind and passing a lot.

I'd love Darren Waller here if I thought his ownership was going to be low, but I don't think it will be. I love Royce Freeman on DK where his price is at a significant discount compared to his price on FD. I don't think his ownership will be super low though so it's a play where I'm just going to want to be overweight compared to the field (probably 40-50% as opposed to what I think will be 20-30% ownership).

Optimal Lineup Construction

Using the 4for4 projections these are the optimal ownership numbers when running the numbers through a 300-lineup model:

DraftKings and FanDuel DEN-OAK Optimal Lineup Allocations
Name Team Pos FD MVP FD AnyFlex DK CAPT DK FLEX
Joe Flacco DEN QB 59% 34% 22% 64%
Josh Jacobs OAK RB 23% 62% 31% 61%
Derek Carr OAK QB 17% 50% 3% 44%
Phillip Lindsay DEN RB 1% 42% 11% 58%
Jalen Richard OAK RB 0% 7% 0% 7%
DeAndre Washington OAK RB 0% 5% 0% 3%
Royce Freeman DEN RB 0% 32% 17% 69%
Devontae Booker DEN RB 0% 2% 0% 0%
Tyrell Williams OAK WR 0% 46% 9% 50%
Hunter Renfrow OAK WR 0% 8% 0% 0%
J.J. Nelson OAK WR 0% 7% 0% 5%
Ryan Grant OAK WR 0% 4% 0% 6%
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 0% 15% 1% 20%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN WR 0% 19% 0% 14%
DaeSean Hamilton DEN WR 0% 10% 2% 24%
Tim Patrick DEN WR 0% 1% 0% 1%
Darren Waller OAK TE 0% 18% 0% 14%
Noah Fant DEN TE 0% 4% 0% 2%
Jeff Heuerman DEN TE 0% 1% 0%
Foster Moreau OAK TE 0% 0% 0% 0%
Derek Carrier OAK TE 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brandon McManus DEN K 0% 13% 1% 19%
Daniel Carlson OAK K 0% 19% 2% 28%
Raiders DST OAK DST N/A N/A 0% 5%
Broncos DST DEN DST N/A N/A 0% 6%

Where's the Edge?

If we go by the optimal lineup construction above, it tells us a few things we can use.

  • Fade the defenses
  • Fade any WR not named Tyrell Williams
  • Fade the TEs
  • Play the RBs and the QBs

Considering I think we'll see many people constructing lineups with the Broncos WRs and Darren Waller, we can find significant leverage by going with a different approach that focuses on the RB production and relying on the QBs for any production that comes through the air. It is expected to be a low-scoring game, so that makes a lot of sense when you look at what potential game flows benefit players the most. If you see a world where this game turns into a shootout, then go with Waller and the WRs, but if you foresee a slow drawn-out game, go with what makes the most sense (the running game dominating).

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