
Draft Note by John Paulsen
Jefferson proved last year that he's not entirely quarterback-proof. After a WR2 finish at 16.2 points per game in 2024, he crashed to WR28 overall and WR38 per game with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback–grinding out 1,048 yards but scoring just two touchdowns in 17 games. The underlying metrics weren't the problem: his 85th-percentile route grade, 80th-percentile YPRR, and 84th-percentile YAC per reception all suggest the talent is intact, and his 69th-percentile ESPN OPEN score reflects a legitimate separator. The issue was a Minnesota offense that couldn't consistently put him in the end zone. Two touchdowns on 140 targets is brutal luck, bad scheme, or bad quarterback–probably a combination of all three. Kyler Murray is a meaningful step up. He's not elite–his 2025 EPA and CPOE were both in the middle of the pack–but he brings improvisation, mobility, and a demonstrated ability to find receivers on broken plays that McCarthy never could. Murray also arrives with a full cast: Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings as complementary weapons, T.J. Hockenson at tight end, Aaron Jones in the backfield. Jefferson is going as the WR6, and the bet is that moving from one of the worst quarterbacks in the league to a serviceable one is enough to restore the red zone production that turned 2025 into a disaster. With Jefferson's tools and Murray's resourcefulness, a top-ten finish is a reasonable base case and a top-5 finish is within reach.
Justin Jefferson
- WR
- , Minnesota Vikings
- 27
- 195 lbs
- 6' 1"
- LSU
- 12
- 1
Full Season Projection
- Full Season Projection
- Dfs Projection
Latest news










