O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 13

Nov 26, 2025

Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 13 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DEN	WAS	30	29
6	KC	DAL	32	26
5	BUF	PIT	26	21
14	GB	DET	28	14
11	NYG	NE	23	12
3	LAR	CAR	13	10
16	ATL	NYJ	25	9
22	BAL	CIN	31	9
21	NE	NYG	29	8
18	ARI	TB	24	6
10	PHI	CHI	16	6
7	CHI	PHI	12	5
23	TEN	JAX	27	4
12	SEA	MIN	15	3
19	MIN	SEA	19	0
8	SF	CLE	8	0
4	DET	GB	3	-1
2	IND	HOU	1	-1
24	JAX	TEN	21	-3
9	PIT	BUF	4	-5
15	TB	ARI	9	-6
29	CLE	SF	22	-7
25	HOU	IND	18	-7
17	DAL	KC	7	-10
30	NO	MIA	20	-10
27	NYJ	ATL	17	-10
13	WAS	DEN	2	-11
20	MIA	NO	6	-14
26	CAR	LAR	11	-15
28	CIN	BAL	10	-18
32	LAC	LVR	14	-18
31	LVR	LAC	5	-26

Broncos @ Commanders

The Commanders went into their Week 12 bye after allowing only 16 points to the Miami Dolphins, snapping a streak of five games in which their opponents scored at least 25, averaging 35.8 in total. The damage was done pretty evenly through the ground and air, but they notably allowed the league’s highest EPA/dropback (0.37) over that span, with all five opposing quarterbacks finishing as top-10 fantasy options, at 23.6 points per game.

This is all to say that this is a nice bounce-back spot for Bo Nix, who has hit that 23.6 point threshold on only three occasions. That’s through no fault of the offensive line, though, as they rank in the top-10 in every conceivable OL metric, including their second-overall adjusted sack rate (4.3%), which points toward errant throws falling squarely on Nix’s shoulders.

Assuming this stout offensive line can continue to keep Nix upright, the sophomore should have a good chance to pad the stats against a Commanders secondary averaging a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt, ranking 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, with an equal 30th ranking in QB and WR aFPA. Both Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton can be considered somewhere in the WR25 range.

Packers @ Lions

The Packers have dealt with injuries all season long —most notably to do-it-all option Elgton Jenkins— but they've at least been fortified in the back half of the year with Zach Tom stringing together healthy starts. The key matchup here will be seeing whether or not the Lions decide to line Aidan Hutchinson across from Rasheed Walker a majority of the time or keep his alignment split down the middle as they did in Week 1. Hutch left that game with only two pressures (out of a total of Detroit's six) as Jordan Love completed 72.7% of his dropbacks for a 188-2-0 stat line with no sacks taken.

That type of efficiency would be a welcome outcome considering Love has completed a Cam Ward-like 58.0% of his passes for two touchdowns across the last three games combined. The matchup is great for Love, but probably still keeps him in the QB15 range on a week with no byes, but Christian Watson (who has been surprisingly consistent since returning to the field) should be considered a WR2, with Romeo Doubs a WR4.

Giants @ Patriots

The Giants' offensive line has been on an upward trajectory throughout the 2025 season, thanks in large part to the continued health of left tackle Andrew Thomas. Even though he missed the first two games of the year, he has still already logged his most snaps since 2022, all while sporting the best pass-blocking efficiency number (98.2) of his career. They’ve stayed mostly healthy throughout the rest of the group as well, with both guards (Greg Van Roten/Jon Runyan) out there for every snap of the season. They’re now ranking middle-of-the-pack in nearly every OL metric, and while that may not sound impressive, it’s a far cry from where they’ve been in recent years.

This sets up an interesting matchup against a Patriots defensive line that will continue to go to work without Milton Williams, who was having a great first year with New England before hitting the IR with a high-ankle sprain. The Pats’ pass rush isn’t necessarily toothless without him, but Williams had the third-highest pass-rush win rate when he left the field in Week 11, according to ESPN’s numbers.

On the fantasy side of things, we should probably expect Jaxson Dart to get fewer designed running plays (maybe) with the recent coaching change, but that certainly doesn’t mean he won’t be scrambling. Before missing the last two games, he was on a five-week streak of rushing touchdowns, and his legs still present enough of a floor to consider him a low-end QB1. Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson should be considered respective WR2 and fringe TE1/2.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Chargers vs. Raiders

The Raiders have become a weekly staple in this article, and I've gotta say, it's gone well. Last week was admittedly a tough matchup against the Cleveland Browns’ defensive front, but ten sacks taken by Geno Smith is wild. It was the sixth time this season he's taken at least four sacks, which goes a long way in explaining how Las Vegas currently ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing D/STs.

The Chargers' d-line may not be at the heights it once was, but that shouldn't be too much of an issue against the Raiders’ utterly depleted offensive line.

Rams @ Panthers

Speaking of banged-up/depleted o-lines, allow me to direct you to the Carolina Panthers’ right guard position. With Chandler Zavala leaving Week 12’s game due to a calf injury, it's possible that we see the sixth different player man RG, assuming that center Austin Corbett doesn't get moved from center to guard for another spot start.

Regardless of how the interior shakes out, they'll have their work cut out for them against a Rams defensive front that not only ranks sixth in pressure rate (40.9%), but also third in pressure rate generated by defensive tackles (17.2%). Kobie Turner against the bottom of the Carolina depth chart sure feels like it should be ripe for fantasy product

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DEN	WAS	27	26
9	PIT	BUF	30	21
6	KC	DAL	25	19
3	LAR	CAR	19	16
10	PHI	CHI	23	13
22	BAL	CIN	32	10
4	DET	GB	14	10
21	NE	NYG	31	10
7	CHI	PHI	15	8
16	ATL	NYJ	22	6
2	IND	HOU	7	5
24	JAX	TEN	29	5
15	TB	ARI	20	5
27	NYJ	ATL	28	1
5	BUF	PIT	4	-1
18	ARI	TB	16	-2
8	SF	CLE	6	-2
13	WAS	DEN	11	-2
12	SEA	MIN	9	-3
32	LAC	LVR	26	-6
31	LVR	LAC	24	-7
29	CLE	SF	21	-8
25	HOU	IND	17	-8
20	MIA	NO	12	-8
14	GB	DET	5	-9
19	MIN	SEA	10	-9
11	NYG	NE	2	-9
30	NO	MIA	18	-12
17	DAL	KC	3	-14
28	CIN	BAL	13	-15
23	TEN	JAX	8	-15
26	CAR	LAR	1	-25

Steelers vs. Bills

In a game that could feature a lot more rushing than we may have assumed looking ahead to this matchup a few months ago, the suddenly anemic Bills’ passing attack will face off on the other side of a surging Steelers rushing game. Pittsburgh sits at 13th in adjusted line yards over the course of the season (4.50); however, over the last three weeks, they rank sixth in yards per attempt (4.9), fifth in stuffed rate (11.8%), and second in EPA per running back attempt.

Those types of things can happen when you’re facing the Bengals and Bears defense in back-to-back weeks, but it’s not as if the Bills —who rank 30th in RB aFPA— are world-beaters either. We’re back to a full-on split between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, but their roles are substantial enough that each can be considered in the RB2 range.

Ravens vs. Bengals

Derrick Henry against a Bengals defense that ranks in the bottom-3 of basically every single meaningful rushing metric? Who says no? Henry is obviously an auto-click regardless of game script, but the sneakier play could be Keaton Mitchell, who sadly only handled three opportunities in a game they were supposed to be blowing out the Jets, yet limped into halftime in a 7-3 deficit. With Joe Burrow (allegedly) returning for Thanksgiving, we should hope to see a little extra fireworks, which could push Mitchell onto the field for pass-catching duties more often. He’s a deep, deep-league play .

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: