WR8? Why Brian Thomas Jr. Deserves More Hype

The similarities between Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr. up to this point in their careers are uncanny. Both played at LSU with QBs who transferred in and then won the Heisman. Both operated in the shadow of a more “talented” WR on the roster; Jefferson behind Ja’Marr Chase, Thomas behind Malik Nabers.

It doesn’t stop there. Each was selected in the 20s of their respective draft classes. Jefferson went 22nd overall as the fifth WR taken, and Thomas went 23rd as the fourth WR taken. Both promptly outperformed the receivers drafted ahead of them in spectacular rookie seasons.

In half-PPR scoring, Jefferson finished as the WR6, averaging 14.4 fantasy points per game, while Thomas finished as the WR4, averaging 14.1 per game. And yet, heading into this season, consensus rankings have Thomas all the way down at WR8. Make it make sense.

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Plenty of Targets to Go Around

Many will point to the addition of Travis Hunter as the reason to temper expectations for Thomas. I’m not buying that. During Jefferson’s rookie breakout, Adam Thielen caught 74 passes for 925 yards and 14 TDs, finishing as the WR8. Elite WRs can coexist with other productive pass catchers.

You might trust Kirk Cousins more as a passer than Trevor Lawrence, but from a pure target share standpoint, there’s plenty to go around in Jacksonville. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram leave behind 111 targets and 74 receptions, creating more than enough opportunity for Hunter without cutting into Thomas’ volume.

It's pretty incredible that Brian Thomas Jr. had this much production left on the field last year and still finished 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards. pic.twitter.com/6P0XQn7bje

— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) May 29, 2025

Even with his astronomical rookie year production, there was still meat left on the bone. He was one of only seven WRs with over 200 open yards left on the field. Open yards are uncatchable targets where he had at least a step of separation. That’s untapped upside.

Can’t Go Wrong with a WR from LSU

LSU has become the gold standard for producing star NFL receivers. Over the past decade, we’ve seen Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase deliver monster sophomore seasons:

• Beckham: 18.1 PPG
• Jefferson: 16.3 PPG
• Chase: 16.6 PPG

Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are next in line from a program that consistently churns out top-tier talent who dominate early in their careers. The LSU pedigree isn’t just hype; it’s a proven developmental pipeline. Players leave Baton Rouge with polished route trees, experience against SEC defenses, and the ability to win at all three levels of the field.

Who has More Upside: Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr.?

Nabers’ appeal comes from his massive target share in New York, but that comes with plenty of uncertainty. He’s walking into a completely new QB room, and there’s no guarantee his volume will grow. Russell Wilson’s deep ball accuracy could help, but it’s not a stable year-to-year metric to bank on, especially for a QB now on his third team in as many seasons.

On the other hand, Thomas is not just a downfield threat; he’s a YAC monster. The only LSU WR to post more yards after the catch as a rookie than Thomas (562) was Ja'Marr Chase (651). No other LSU rookie has even cracked 500. He can take the top off a defense and turn short passes into explosive gains.

He’s also a proven TD machine. Thomas led the FBS in his final college season with 17 TDs, then led all NFL rookies with 10 TDs. His size, body control, and massive catch radius make him a nightmare in the red zone. Fun fact: No WR in the 2024 draft class earned a higher Next Gen Stats athleticism score.

Despite all this, Thomas sits at WR8 in half-PPR rankings, while Nabers is at WR5. Nabers might reel in more catches, but it’s hard to see him topping Thomas in yards and touchdowns. In 2025 drafts, I’m taking Brian Thomas Jr. over Malik Nabers every time.

Bottom Line

• Target share stability: The addition of Travis Hunter shouldn’t materially impact Thomas’ volume.
• Untapped upside: Over 200 yards left on the field due to uncatchable targets in 2024 leaves plenty of room for growth.
• LSU pedigree: History tells us that sophomore year transcendence from star LSU WRs is the norm, not the exception.
• ADP: Thomas is currently the WR8 with an ADP of 15 according to 4for4's Multi-site tool.