Fantasy Football Value of Jalen Reagor to the Eagles
How surprised were you when the Eagles general manager Howie Roseman drafted former TCU wide receiver Jalen Reagor at No. 20 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft? Many draft analysts and computer models projected him to be selected in the second round. The Eagles decision left many fans scratching their heads especially with LSU’s Justin Jefferson still on the board. He was the NCAA’s most productive receiver last season who was drafted by the Vikings at No. 22.
When you evaluate the Eagles’ offensive situation closer you’ll learn that Reagor was a better fit for the team. Philadelphia’s front office and coaching staff had an insatiable hunger like Galactus from Marvel Comics when it came to adding speed on the offensive side of the football and Reagor met the need. This article will discuss his collegiate statistical body of work, why Reagor will thrive in Philadelphia and his fantasy football outlook.
Jalen Reagor’s Statistical Body of Work
Reagor is the son of former Texas Tech and eight-year NFL veteran Montae Reagor. The former four-star recruit and track star from Waxahachie initially committed to Oklahoma before switching to TCU.
“He’s an offensive guy who’s been raised with a defensive mentality.”
-TCU coach Gary Patterson
“I’ve always instilled in him, just because you’re a WR doesn’t mean you’re a pretty boy, can’t get dirty, won’t block.”
- Dad Montae Reagor
Kids a competitor pic.twitter.com/2L8aCQ1v9L— Eagles Nation (@PHLEaglesNation) April 24, 2020
Reagor didn’t waste any time announcing himself as a playmaker. In 2017 he won the Big 12 Co-Offensive Freshman of the Year and led the Horned Frogs in receiving yards while playing 14 games with two starts. Reagor also displayed his versatility as a runner and kick returner. He rushed for 65 yards on eight attempts and accumulated 122 yards on four returns.
Reagor followed that up with a marvelous 2018 season. He started 11 of 13 games, finished as a second-team All-Big 12 selection, and the team’s Most Valuable Player. Reagor also rushed for 170 yards on 13 attempts, returned 12 kicks for 312 yards, and returned eight punts for 97 yards. He was the swiss army knife of the Horned Frog positively impacting the game as a receiver, runner, and returner.
Reagor’s 2019 season at TCU was a quagmire when you compare what he did in 2018. This quote from the Pro Football Focus Draft Guide sums it up perfectly:
There are legit excuses for that, like him statically lining up at right wide receiver every snap, almost never getting thrown screens, and having one of the worst quarterback situations in the country. The ability to consistently get behind defenses was still very much there even if the numbers don’t show it.
The following tweet sums up how dire Reagor’s quarterback was during his final season at TCU.
Quality QB play is obviously a large part trying to evaluate wide receivers coming into the NFL.
Using PFF data, here is how often the 2020 WR class saw an accurate pass on their targets: pic.twitter.com/1DleCybZKe— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) February 27, 2020
This is the statistical impact using Sports Info Solutions’ expected points added per target and positive play rate versus man coverage (PVM) of how poor quarterback play dramatically altered the public’s perception of Reagor when compared to the other top receiver’s in the 2020 class.
- Jalen Reagor: -0.08 EPA | 32% PVM
- Tee Higgins: 0.68 EPA | 62% PVM
- Justin Jefferson: 0.67 EPA | 67% PVM
- CeeDee Lamb: 0.64 EPA | 48% PVM
- Henry Ruggs III: 0.59 EPA | 58% PVM
- Jerry Jeudy: 0.53 EPA | 48% PVM
- Brandon Aiyuk: 0.50 EPA | 41% PVM
- Laviska Shenault Jr.: 0.41 EPA | 61% PVM
The Eagles were looking for a wide receiver who could attack opposing defenses on all three levels and believe they found that in Reagor. Let’s walk through his fantasy outlook in Philadelphia this season.
How Jalen Reagor Fits with the Eagles
The Eagles selection of Reagor aligns with their West Coast offensive philosophy. The tight ends in this offense run similar routes designed for receivers working out of the slot. The addition of Reagor will help open the field for Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert in two-tight end sets. Both Philadelphia tight ends finished in the top-10 in Hog Rate at the tight end position. This advanced metric from Player Profiler represents targets per snap to capture the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis. Running back Miles Sanders will also continue to be used more as a receiver out of the backfield. He only played 53.7% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps but finished with 63 targets. This tied Dalvin Cook for the 13th most targets among running backs.
I understand why fans seem frustrated with the brief temptation of Lamb and passing on Jefferson.
But Reagor projects as the kind of player this offense needs. Fast, elusive, YAC. If the evaluation is right, he will fill a major hole.— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) April 24, 2020
Reagor is a natural fit for the Eagles offense. He provides a shot of adrenaline to a group of receivers that finished 31st last season with a dismal 1,647 receiving yards. Quarterback Carson Wentz finished last season ranked 10th in deep-ball passing after losing deep threat DeSean Jackson after three games. He only completed 34.8% of those attempts. Wentz still threw for over 4,000 yards and finished as the fantasy QB12. Jackson will return this season. He signed a three year, $27 million contract with the Eagles last year in March. Jackson received $13 million in full guarantees including a $7.17 million signing bonus. The 33-year old receiver is eligible to receive a $2 million option bonus this year.
Jeffery only played in 10 games last season. He finished with 73 targets, 43 receptions, 490 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. It was the 30-year old receiver’s least productive season since he was a rookie back in 2012. Jeffery’s season ended due to a Lisfranc injury, but he’s expected to return this season. The Eagles also acquired Marquise Goodwin in a trade with the 49ers that also included the teams swapping sixth-round draft choices. Philadelphia also drafted former Boise State receiver John Hightower in the fifth round of the draft. Roseman’s philosophy heading into this upcoming season was to equip his coaching staff and Wentz with talent that fits their strengths.
?Carson Wentz TOP Eagles Weapons
WR DeSean Jackson
WR Alshon Jeffery
WR Marquise Goodwin
WR Jalen Reagor
TE Zach Ertz
RB Miles Sanders
WR John Hightower
WR Quez Watkins @6abc @cj_wentz @jalenreagor #Eagles #CarsonWentz pic.twitter.com/Vcu6M1CNmV— Jeff Skversky 6abc (@JeffSkversky) April 26, 2020
It would be very surprising to see Philadelphia focus more on the passing game. The Eagles offense will continue to be balanced. Wentz averaged 38 passing attempts per game in his two full seasons in the NFL which is around the NFL average. Are the Eagles building a house of cards offensively? Jackson and Jeffery’s age and recent injuries are a concern. Ertz is coming off a hip injury. Goodwin’s chronic lower-body injuries have derailed his career. There is so much uncertainty with this unit. This uncertainty could be a blessing in disguise for Reagor.
Bottom Line
The Eagles acquired an asset who they believe can run routes on the outside, from the slot, positively impact the running game, and as a returner. Philadelphia has a group of unproven young receivers and older veterans Jeffery and Jackson. Roseman was intoxicated by Reagor’s playmaking ability and did not hesitate to select him in the draft.
- Reagor can be viewed as a WR3 with upside in redraft and can be targeted in the double-digit rounds
- His first-round pedigree suggests he’ll play a high number of offensive snaps.
- He could finish the season as the Eagles No. 1 receiver if Jeffery or Jackson are traded or miss extended time due to an injury.
- Draft Reagor in the late first to early second round in rookie drafts. I selected him at the 1.09 in a post-NFL Draft, four-round rookie mock draft that our staff participated in.
- His dynasty outlook has a wide range of outcomes that include a steady stream of 1,000-yard seasons or untapped potential. You should lean toward the former considering the Eagles offensive situation and head coach Doug Pederson
