Fantasy Football RB Draft Rankings
# | Player | TM | BYE | FF Pts | ADP12 | ADP10 | ↑↓ | GC | DIF | RuAtt | RuYdsRushing | RuTD | Ru1D | Rec | RecYdsReceiving | RecTD | Rec1D | Fum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Christian McCaffrey
Draft Note
Christian McCaffrey is the first running back off the board for good reason. He finished as the RB1 in 2023 after an RB2 finish the year before. Last season, he scored 358 (half-PPR) fantasy points, which was over 100 more than the RB2, Raheem Mostert. He just turned 28 years old, so age isn’t much of a concern. There was some question whether he would see a mega workload with Elijah Mitchell healthy, but Mitchell’s status didn’t matter–McCaffrey averaged 21.2 touches per game, which was second only to Kyren Williams. He should continue to be the focal point of the 49ers’ highly-efficient offense.
| SF | 9 | 344 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 1261 | 7.9 | 63.2 | 60 | 484 | 6.9 | 22.2 | 2 | |
2 | Breece Hall
Draft Note
The Jets eased Breece Hall in early last season as he was recovering from a torn ACL in October of 2022. He saw just 37 total touches (9.3 per game) in the first four games. From Week 5 on, he led all running backs in total touches (262) and was second to Saquon Barkley in touches per game (20.2). In that span, Hall was the fantasy RB2, which is where I have him ranked this season. Not only is he talented and versatile, but the Jets did a major overhaul of the offensive line, adding veterans Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and drafting Olu Fashanue with the No. 11 overall pick. Aaron Rodgers’ return should also help the offense as a whole, creating more scoring opportunities for Hall. He’s a rock-solid pick in the middle of the first round in most formats.
| NYJ | 12 | 292 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 891 | 8.1 | 44.6 | 70 | 599 | 4.3 | 27.4 | 2 | |
3 | Bijan Robinson
Draft Note
Bijan Robinson’s rookie season was inconsistent thanks in no small part to HC Arthur Smith’s insistence of limiting Robinson’s touches for most of the season. However in the 15 games where Robinson played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged 14.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game, which would have been the 12th-highest per-game average last season. If Robinson gets Christian McCaffrey/Kyren Williams treatment–i.e. snap shares averaging 80%+ instead of last year’s 67.9%–then Robinson should live up to his RB3 ADP. Coming over from the Rams, Zac Robinson is the new offensive coordinator, and last season he and Sean McVay fed Kyren Williams to the tune of 21.7 touches per game. If Robinson sees that sort of work at his same fantasy point per touch efficiency, then he would average around 17.3 fantasy points per game, good enough to finish RB3 on a per-game basis last season.
| ATL | 12 | 287 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 3 | 0 | 218 | 963 | 7.2 | 48.3 | 58 | 481 | 5.5 | 22.0 | 2 | |
4 | Derrick Henry
Draft Note
Derrick Henry finished as the RB8 in his age-29 season running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Tennessee running backs averaged 2.2 yards before contact per attempt last season, while the Ravens were second (3.2) in the league. Henry posted the No. 6 rushing grade at PFF, and was 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in broken tackles per attempt. His age is a minor concern, but if Henry can stay healthy he has the potential to put up monster numbers in the Baltimore offense, which has generated an average of 15.0 (running back) rushing touchdowns since 2020. Working backward, he has finished RB8, RB4, RB14 (eight games played), RB2, and RB3 in the last five seasons. He has legit 20-touchdown upside in the Baltimore offense.
| BAL | 14 | 286 | 2.05 | 2.07 | 7 | 3 | 282 | 1197 | 13.7 | 60.0 | 24 | 188 | 0.3 | 8.6 | 2 | |
5 | Jonathan Taylor
Draft Note
Taylor missed the first few games due to an ankle injury (and subsequent surgery) from the 2022 season and didn’t play 50%+ of the snaps until Week 7. From that point on he had the third-highest per-game average (16.8) at his position even though he missed three games due to a thumb injury later in the season. He missed six games in 2022, but played 15 and 17 games in his first two seasons. In 2021 he was the overall RB1, outscoring the RB2 (Austin Ekeler) by 60 points. Taylor should have a productive 2024, though there are a couple of areas of concern. Anthony Richardson only targeted his running backs on 10 of his 72 pass attempts (13.9%) and in the two full games that Richardson played, he saw three carries inside the opponents’ five-yard line while Indy running backs saw five carries. It’s obviously a small sample size, and Taylor’s availability may change the ratio, but Richardson’s 38% goal-line carry rate is pretty high. (For reference, Jalen Hurts had a 47% goal-line carry rate last season.) Taylor is a fantasy RB1, but perhaps lacks the receiving and touchdown upside of the backs being drafted ahead of him.
| IND | 14 | 276 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 4 | -1 | 318 | 1263 | 8.8 | 63.3 | 30 | 211 | 1.3 | 9.7 | 3 | |
6 | Saquon Barkley
Draft Note
The Eagles upgraded from D'Andre Swift to Saquon Barkley, who finished as the fantasy RB16 in 13 games played in 2023. (He was the RB11 on a per-game basis, which didn't quite live up to his RB5 ADP.) Still in his prime, Barkley should fit in nicely with the Eagles' offense, though he's likely to see his receptions decline, at least a bit. Swift's receptions per game fell from 3.4 (with the Lions) to 2.4 last year with the Eagles. Still, Barkley is joining a much better offense and will command bell-cow touches, though touchdowns may also be an issue given the Eagles' ability to run the Brotherly Shove/Tush Push. He should go off the board near the 1st/2nd turn.
| PHI | 5 | 260 | 1.12 | 2.02 | 6 | 0 | 296 | 1264 | 6.9 | 63.3 | 33 | 188 | 1.0 | 8.7 | 2 | |
7 | De'Von Achane
Draft Note
As a rookie, De’Von Achane finished as the fantasy RB22 while missing six games. He posted the fourth-highest per-game average, just behind his teammate Raheem Mostert. He led the league in yards before contact per attempt (4.7), yards after contact per attempt (3.1), and was fourth in broken tackles per attempt (0.126). He was first in PFF’s rush grade and 13th in receiving grade. He’s a star in the making and has overall RB1 upside, but his workload is a concern. The 32-year-old Mostert is still around and should absorb 10-15 carries if he remains healthy. Achane only averaged 11.2 touches in the nine games he played with Mostert, but he did see an average of 13.9 touches in seven games when his first game (two touches in Week 2 vs. NE) and his injury game (two touches in Week 11 vs. LV) are removed. He averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in those seven games, which is actually more than the 17.2 fantasy points he averaged in the two games that Mostert missed. If Achane sees around 14 touches per game and can stay healthy, he’s going to finish as a solid fantasy RB1. Any increase in touches could lead to a top-three type season.
| MIA | 6 | 249 | 2.12 | 3.04 | 11 | 4 | 125 | 937 | 6.9 | 47.0 | 38 | 300 | 4.2 | 13.8 | 1 | |
8 | Josh Jacobs
Draft Note
Josh Jacobs finished the season as the RB23, but missed a few games late in the year. He was the RB19 on a per-game basis. Jacobs was the fantasy RB3 in 2022. Jacobs could see a massive workload if he can remain healthy, though the Packers have implied that they want to get rookie MarShawn Lloyd involved.
| GB | 10 | 249 | 3.10 | 4.04 | 12 | 4 | 290 | 1114 | 5.9 | 55.8 | 39 | 292 | 1.3 | 13.4 | 2 | |
9 | Kyren Williams
Draft Note
The Rams drafted Blake Corum to take some of the load off of Kyren Williams, but I still think Williams is a good bet for a top-five season. He was the RB2 on a per-game basis while handling 21.7 of the team’s 28.0 backfield touches in his 12 games played. Even if his touches fall to the 18.0-19.0 range–or 64% to 68% of the team’s backfield touches–he’s still looking at 16.5-17.5 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good enough to remain the RB2 behind McCaffrey.
| LAR | 6 | 249 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 9 | 0 | 189 | 951 | 10.3 | 47.6 | 32 | 193 | 3.2 | 8.9 | 2 | |
10 | Travis Etienne
Draft Note
Travis Etienne finished the season as the fantasy RB3 with the fifth-highest per-game average in half-PPR formats. He was the RB16 in 2022, but didn’t play big snaps until Week 7. From that point on, he was the RB12. As he enters his third season, Etienne has a clear role and a high floor as the Jaguars’ bellcow back. He should provide solid RB1 numbers again this season.
| JAX | 12 | 245 | 2.07 | 2.09 | 8 | -2 | 230 | 895 | 9.3 | 44.8 | 47 | 368 | 0.9 | 16.9 | 2 |
Who has the best Points Per First Down rankings?
4for4 equips you with the tools to dominate any scoring format. Their rankings are renowned for accuracy and consistency, a fact underscored by John Paulsen's multiple "Most Accurate Expert" awards and consistent top finishes.
But 4for4 goes beyond accolades. They leverage cutting-edge analytics, factoring in offensive tendencies, strength of schedule, and player talent, specifically for PPFD scoring. This data-driven approach translates into measurable, objective rankings you can rely on to maximize your first-down advantage. Don't settle for generic rankings in a PPFD league – leverage 4for4's expertise and outscore your competition week after week.
What is the best draft position in Points Per First Down drafts?
While there isn't a single "magic" draft position in point-per-first-down (PPFD) leagues, aiming for the top half of the first round can give you a strong foundation. Securing a workhorse back who excels at churning out yards and catching passes is still a great strategy. Think dual-threat back like Christian McCaffrey, who racks up first downs consistently, or a high-volume wideout like Tyreek Hill or CeeDee Lamb. Drafting at the back end of the draft can also be helpful to be able to select two higher-volume players back to back.
What is the best draft strategy for Points Per First Down drafts?
Conquer your PPFD league with a strategy that prioritizes first-down machines! Early rounds should focus on securing a consistent running back who excels at churning out yards and catching passes. Think dual-threat backs like Christian McCaffrey or receiving threats like Alvin Kamara. Don't forget quarterbacks who lead high-volume passing attacks. Guys like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts can rack up first downs through the ground and air.
The beauty of PPFD? Opportunity beyond the usual suspects. Mid-to-late rounds can be a goldmine for wide receivers who see a steady stream of targets in pass-happy offenses. Think Diontae Johnson or George Pickens. Even tight ends like George Kiltte can be valuable with their high catch rates. Remember, volume is king in PPFD. Don't be afraid to target players who might not be the flashiest scorers in standard leagues, but consistently move the chains for their teams. By focusing on consistent first-down producers across all positions, you'll be well on your way to dominating your PPFD draft.
What is Points Per First Down ADP?
In point-per-first-down (PPFD) leagues, ADP (Average Draft Position) reveals the average round where fantasy managers are targeting players who consistently move the chains. Tracking PPFD ADP trends can help you predict when your first-down machines might be off the board, allowing you to strategize your picks and snag hidden gems before they're gone. It's basically a sneak peek into the minds of your fellow drafters, giving you a critical edge on draft day, especially since PPFD scoring can alter player values compared to standard leagues.
Who has the most accurate Points Per First Down rankings?
Conquering a PPFD league requires a data-driven approach, and 4for4 provides the tools you need to dominate. Their track record speaks for itself: John Paulsen's accolades – multiple "Most Accurate Expert" awards and consistent top finishes – are a testament to their expertise.
But 4for4 goes beyond recognition. They wield cutting-edge analytics specifically tailored for PPFD scoring. Offensive tendencies, strength of schedule, and player talent are all factored in to create their renowned rankings. This translates to measurable, objective results you can trust to maximize your first-down advantage. Don't settle for generic rankings in a PPFD league. Leverage 4for4's expertise on point-per-first-down and outscore your competition all season long.
What is the best first-round pick in Points Per First Down Drafts?
The ideal first-round pick in a PPFD draft depends on your risk tolerance. Here are two approaches to consider:
The Safe Choice: Go for a proven workhorse running back like Christian McCaffrey or an elite receiver like CeeDee Lamb. These guys are first-down machines, churning out yards and catching passes consistently. While this strategy offers a solid foundation, it might not be the most exciting.
The High-Reward Gamble: Target a young, explosive wide receiver with a sky-high target projection in a pass-happy offense. Think of someone like Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson. These players have the potential for massive first-down production but also carry a higher risk of inconsistency.
Ultimately, the best choice comes down to personal preference and draft board dynamics. Analyze ADP trends (if available) to see how these players are valued and draft the player who best fits your overall strategy. Remember, the key is maximizing first-down production, so be flexible and don't be afraid to break the mold if the opportunity arises.
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