Squirrel’s Nuts & Bolts: Chiefs - Jaguars Showdown Strategy (Week 5 NFL DFS)

Oct 06, 2025

Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Week 5 of the NFL season wraps up with an AFC showdown as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Chiefs enter as 3.5-point road favorites, with a game total set at 45.5 points. While the Jaguars are home underdogs, they come in with the better record at 3-1, compared to Kansas City’s 2-2 mark. Both teams have won two straight and feature top-five defenses, with Jacksonville allowing the fourth-fewest points per game and Kansas City right behind them, ranking fifth in scoring defense.

Jacksonville has leaned heavily on the ground game this season, ranking 4^th in the league in rushing yards per game behind Travis Etienne, who is averaging a career-best 6.1 yards per carry. The passing game was expected to take a leap forward, but Trevor Lawrence has disappointed. WR Brian Thomas Jr. and first-overall pick Travis Hunter have maxed out at 55 yards in a game this season with no touchdowns between them. TE Brenton Strange and WR Dyami Brown round out the passing game for the Jaguars, with just one receiving touchdown between them. Back-up TE Hunter Brown actually leads Jacksonville with two receiving touchdowns on six receptions.

For the Chiefs, the story remains centered around Patrick Mahomes, who continues to deliver elite-level play. Mahomes has seven passing touchdowns against just one interception this season, and actually leads the Chiefs with 130 rushing yards, illustrating the lack of productivity in the backfield. Isiah Pacheco (127 rushing yards) and Kareem Hunt (115 rushing yards) have split carries and both have been inefficient this season. The return of Xavier Worthy from a Week 1 shoulder injury last week provided a spark to the passing game, though he’s been downgraded to Questionable entering Monday night. I’m writing this article expecting Worthy to play, but if he misses the game, Chiefs WRs Hollywood Bown and Tyquan Thornton should get a major boost in projection.

While we tend to focus on the offenses, it’s been the defenses driving success so far for both these teams. The Jaguars lead the league in turnovers created and turnover differential, while the Chiefs have yet to allow more than 21 points on defense this season. For DFS single-game contests, we’ll keep the possibility of a defensive struggle in mind as we build our lineups. Let’s break down this AFC showdown, highlight the key plays, and uncover the strategies that could help you climb the leaderboards.