Week 1 NFL Survivor 2025 Pool Picks: Starting Simple

The good news is the NFL is back! The even better news, for survivor pool enthusiasts, is that it can’t possibly go any worse than last season! As the year progresses, we will use this article to discuss our favorite picks and delve into some of the game theory and strategy that make a successful survivor player.

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Week 1 Strategy

Don’t get too cute. We want to find one of two things in Survivor: a large favorite or a bad team to fade. If we can find both, that’s even better. That seems like it would go hand in hand, and usually it does, but sometimes we have a few matchups in a given week where there are a few options that fit into those categories. It can be tough in the beginning of the year to be certain about teams, as evidenced by last year’s debacle, but it is important to remember that Vegas has tall buildings and bright lights for a reason: they're usually correct.

The Chalk

Philadelphia playing host to Dallas is an option this week. They are 8.5-point favorites, playing at home, opening the season against a division rival who just traded away their best defensive player. Thursday night games can be a bit volatile throughout the season, but I’m less concerned about that in Week 1.

Arizona is taking on New Orleans in its Week 1 matchup. The Saints have the look of the worst team in the league, and picking on Spencer Rattler doesn’t seem like the worst strategy in the world. This game has the makings of large overreactions to Arizona’s potential after a blowout win. The only slight hesitation is that Arizona is traveling to New Orleans for this game, but as nearly a touchdown favorite, it shouldn’t matter much. Kyler Murray is healthy (for now) and should get off to a hot start.

The last popular option would be Denver playing host to Tennessee. They, too, are 8.5-point favorites playing at home. Cam Ward will be making the first start of his career on the road, and there are definite question marks about the Titans, in general. Those questions are reflected in the line, but I’m feeling hesitant about this game for some reason. The total is on the lower end, which signals to me that each point is going to be hard earned, and I think that introduces some volatility into the game. I’m not calling for the upset here, but there are enough strong alternative options for me to stray from this game. If Denver is as good as advertised, there will be other spots to pick them in the near future, most notably against the Jets in a month.

Our friends over at PoolGenius have it projected that about 60% of picks will be on Denver, Arizona, or Philadelphia in Week 1. Of those three, Arizona has the least future value. That makes it an attractive pick for Week 1, but also serves as a bit of a warning about their actual skill and value.

Off The Beaten Path

Each week, I’ll use this section to pick one game that’s more of a game theory selection. Going off the board in Week 1 isn’t advisable, but as time goes on we will want to take some chances. Washington is looking to kick-start their 2025 after an impressive 2024. What better way to do that than to face off against a weak division opponent at home? PoolGenius has them as the fourth-most popular option giving them a bit more EV than the other teams we’ve mentioned so far. If you use Washington, you’ll still have the other trio of teams to pick on some weak opponents over the coming weeks.

Official Picks

I’m going to give three picks and track how the season goes for each as if it were its own pool. Pool A is our conservative pool. Pool B is straying a little bit from the most popular options, but not going too far. Pool C will only be our “Off The Beaten Path” picks.

• Pool A: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Pool B: Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

• Pool C: Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

We've partnered with PoolGenius again this year to bring some extra insight to our picks for this piece. You can get a free trial to test drive their site for Week 1 by clicking here!