Is T.J. Hockenson the Top Tight End Target in Tier 2?

Over the last five years, only three tight ends have scored more total fantasy points than T.J. Hockenson: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle. Over that span, he's had some elite finishes — TE4 in 2020 and 2023, and TE2 in 2022 — but has also missed significant time in multiple seasons, resulting in forgettable seasons in 2021 and 2024. Plus, last year, he scored exactly zero touchdowns in 10 games played. At an ADP of TE5, does all this make Hockenson a high-upside value or an unnecessary risk?

Let's find out.

Click here for more 2025 Player Profiles!

DraftKings is giving ALL customers a can't-miss offer for Best Ball: Draft One, Get One! Enter a lineup in the $15 Million Best Ball Contest for just $20, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play FREE for a share of $15 million—giving you a second shot to win big!

Roller Coaster of Production

Put simply, T.J. Hockenson has not been the most consistent of fantasy stars recently. Despite missing the last two games of 2023, he finished that season with a whopping 95 catches on 127 targets, for 960 yards and five touchdowns. It was the best year of his career (in his first full season in Minnesota). Unfortunately, it ended in a multi-ligament knee injury that spilled well into 2024, holding him out of the first eight weeks and slowing him down through the remaining 10. He really only had two stud performances — eight catches for 72 yards in Week 10 and seven for 114 in Week 12 — and as noted in the intro, never found the end zone. This also took place with Sam Darnold at QB, who has now been replaced by "second-year rookie" J.J. McCarthy, throwing further question marks into the mix.

That said, over the four seasons before his TD-less, recovering-from-injury 2024 dud, Hockenson had averaged 10 half-PPR fantasy points per game. Outside of Kelce, Andrews, and Kittle, only Sam LaPorta (in his rookie year) and Darren Waller met that mark over that span. Even with his missed time in 2021, Hockenson's 309 receptions over that span were second only to Travis Kelce's. He also scored between four and six touchdowns in four straight seasons before last year's goose egg, which, while it isn't elite, is a pretty strong baseline.

The question for fantasy drafters, of course, is which Hockenson we can expect in 2025. The target hog who finished second at the position two years ago? Or the hampered afterthought with an allergy to the end zone last year?

Projecting Into 2025

We have quite a bit of data suggesting that NFL players, especially receivers, tend to have a slow season in their first year off ACL/MCL recovery, and then return to full health in year two. Considering how late Hockenson's knee injury occurred in 2023, that put him in a particularly rough spot for his production in 2024. Now, with another offseason to recover, he should be 100% heading into September. In a couple of the weeks immediately following his return last year, he flashed the classic Hock upside even amid ongoing recovery. I'm confident he'll rediscover that form in full heading into 2025.

On a per-game basis, his Minnesota form in 2022 and 2023 (pre-injury) was 8.5 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 59.2 yards, with eight TDs in 25 games. Projected over a full season, that would be 144 targets, 105 catches, about 1,000 yards, and between five to six touchdowns. In most years, that would be good for a finish between TE2 to TE4 ... where he's finished in each of his three healthy seasons. The math is checking out so far.

Meanwhile, Minnesota still needs top-tier targets for J.J. McCarthy, behind Justin Jefferson. Hockenson was that guy in 2023, and while Jordan Addison finished second with 99 targets in 2024, he's more of a killshot deep-threat than a volume receiver. Aaron Jones should also see reasonable target volume (usually 60-70 per season), but otherwise, Hockenson will likely be the clear number two to Jefferson when it comes to the passing game. I'd expect him to end up right around a 20% target share — elite for a tight end — and look to McCarthy's volume in his first year on the field for the resulting production.

Expectations for Minnesota's Offense

Because McCarthy is ostensibly a rookie quarterback, it's a bit tougher to predict how well this offense will run in 2025. That said, we wouldn't have expected much from Sam Darnold, but head coach and QB-wizard Kevin O'Connell led him to a massive breakout season and the Vikings to a top-10 scoring offense last year. In fact, Minnesota has been a top-10 offense in either scoring, yards, or both in all three seasons under O'Connell, even while rotating through three different starting running backs and a bit of quarterback chaos.

And, most importantly, they have finished top five in passing yards and passing touchdowns all three seasons under O'Connell, and rank fifth in pass attempts over that three-year span. Even with a "first-year" QB, this team is going to throw the ball. Given McCarthy's top-10 draft capital, his year of study as a true rookie, and the weapons he has to work with, I would also not be surprised if he threw the ball quite effectively. Our 4for4 projections have him finishing fourth in pass attempts, fifth in yards, and 10th in touchdowns. A tight end that projects as the number two target for that kind of QB is likely to carry significant fantasy upside regardless of ADP, but Hockenson's price may offer an extra burst of value.

King of Tier Two?

If you pass on the "Elite Three" at tight end this year — Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle — Tier Two is arguably a six-man jumble extending from round five through round eight. Sam LaPorta will often go much earlier than the rest, but I believe he belongs more squarely with the other names: Hockenson, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, David Njoku, and Evan Engram. Put simply, the Elite Three are the guys who are likely to lead their team in receiving (or in at least one of the receiving stats), while Tier Two consists of "Number Twos" on their own offenses, with proven upside.

Of the group, I have Hockenson ranked highest, even ahead of LaPorta, and comfortably in front of the remaining names. While they all have question marks, Hockenson's volume-driven floor is higher than that of Andrews or Njoku, and his ceiling — if McCarthy hits — is higher than a sunsetting Kelce's or a PPR-friendly Engram's. You can get him as late as the eighth round, depending on where you draft (i.e. Underdog), and he is one of my favorite picks in that range.

The Bottom Line

• T.J. Hockenson is coming off a 2024 season shortened and slowed by injury, but in his last healthy season, he was the TE2 overall and carries that upside into 2025.
• While quarterback J.J. McCarthy will take the field for the first time this year, head coach Kevin O'Connell's passing game has been consistently productive, and Hockenson projects as a top-two option in that passing game.
• According to Underdog ADP, Hockenson is being drafted as the TE5 at 88th overall, in the middle of the eighth round. That's lower than he's ever finished in a fully healthy season, and in year two off the knee injury, Hockenson should be full strength in 2025. He's a great tight end target if you pass on the Elite Three but don't want to wait until sleeper range in your drafts.