Fantasy Managers Are Sleeping on Chiefs RB1 Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco has always been a bit of an outlier. A seventh-round pick with a high-energy running style and a relentless motor, he earned a starting role on a Super Bowl-winning team almost immediately. But after two productive seasons, his 2024 campaign came to a screeching halt due to injuries that derailed his momentum and raised real questions about his future role.
Now entering Year 4 as the presumed starter once again, Pacheco finds himself at a crossroads in one of the league’s most enigmatic offenses. Let’s take a look at where things stand heading into 2025.
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Isiah Pacheco’s Career
There wasn’t much buzz around Isiah Pacheco coming out of Rutgers in the 2022 NFL Draft, but that can change quickly when you land in Kansas City. A seventh-round pick, Pacheco joined a perennial top-6 scoring offense and was viewed as a bruising early-down runner, one with questionable patience but a frame built to handle volume.
That profile showed up immediately, as he racked up 375 regular-season carries over his first two seasons and held off veterans like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ronald Jones. His hard-nosed, downhill style kept the chains moving and earned him the trust of a coaching staff that didn’t need flash at the position; just someone to complement Patrick Mahomes and keep the offense on schedule. His success rate was well above league average, finishing fourth among qualifiers as a rookie (59.8%) and still ranking 18th in Year 2 (50.0%). The feet might look frantic, but the results speak for themselves.
| Year | Carries | Yards | YPA | YCO/A | Targets | Receptions | YPRR | Total Scores |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 170 | 830 | 4.9 | 3.00 | 13 | 13 | 0.88 | 5 |
| 2023 | 205 | 935 | 4.6 | 3.04 | 50 | 44 | 0.91 | 9 |
| 2024 | 83 | 310 | 3.7 | 2.39 | 16 | 12 | 0.81 | 1 |
Simply looking at the 2024 box score, you’d think the wheels had fallen off, and in a way, you’d be right. Pacheco began the year the same way he’d played in the previous two; accumulating 42 opportunities for 189 total yards and 28.4 half-PPR points. But a fractured fibula in that second game would sideline him until Week 13, and the optimism quickly faded. Through the final five regular-season games, he had a 6.1% broken-plus-missed tackle rate and a 16.3% first-down rate, both of which registered in the bottom-10 among 62 qualifying running backs in that span.
It was evident that he’d lost a step, and a further rib injury certainly didn’t help matters. In Pacheco’s hobbled form, he not only split time with veteran Kareem Hunt throughout the playoffs; he was essentially a third-string back behind Hunt and third-down specialist Samaje Perine. It paints a worrying picture as we gear up for next season.
The Chiefs' Offense in 2025
A little less reliance on the short passing game sure would be nice for our collective Chiefs fantasy pieces, but it's hard to bank on it. They keep making Super Bowls, and while that’s great for them and their fans, it hasn’t exactly been ideal for fantasy production.
Man pic.twitter.com/q7EfIiGU4k
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 26, 2025
Mahomes and the Chiefs have slid into Chad Pennington-levels of conservativeness, dragging what was once an elite offense down to middle-tier scoring rates. The fantasy fallout has been just as expected: a drop across the board.
The change in philosophy hasn’t stopped KC from attacking the wide receiver room through the NFL Draft and free agency, but those returns haven’t quite paid out, either. Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, and now Jalen Royals have all entered the fray as top-150 picks in recent years, while Hollywood Brown was brought on board through free agency last year. Through no fault of the front office, there have been multiple setbacks, including injuries and an impending suspension for Rice, which is rumored to be in the 3-6 game range.
Pair that with an aging Travis Kelce, and the explosiveness of the offense has been drained.
Yet, we’re still staring at another 11.5 projected wins for the Chiefs, and the culmination of all that doom-and-gloom still points toward at least a league-average scoring output. So if we’ve got a hard time seeing explosive gains through the air, shouldn’t that mean we’re higher on the guys running the rock?
Projecting the Chiefs' Backfield in Fantasy
If the Chiefs are going to stay afloat offensively —especially with Rashee Rice facing a suspension— they’ll need more from the run game. That starts up front, where things have shifted quite a bit this offseason.
They traded Joe Thuney in March to free up cap space, allowing them to re-sign Trey Smith and secure their interior core alongside Creed Humphrey. Former rookie liability Kingsley Suamataia is expected to fill Thuney’s spot at guard, while Josh Simmons, a first-round talent who fell due to a torn patellar, is already getting first-team reps and could start at left tackle in Week 1. It’s a volatile group, but the net result should be roughly neutral if Simmons holds up.
As for the backfield? It’s still Pacheco’s job, and that’s saying something.
If the Chiefs had major concerns about his long-term outlook, they likely would’ve done more than draft SMU’s Brashard Smith at pick No. 228 or re-sign a post-prime Kareem Hunt. Elijah Mitchell also joined the room via free agency, but none of these names are locks to make the roster, let alone steal meaningful early-down touches.
If Pacheco is healthy, he’s the clear lead back. Whether it’s Smith, Hunt, or Mitchell rounding out the depth chart, the expectation should mirror what the Chiefs planned for a healthy Pacheco to start 2024. Even if this isn’t the elite scoring machine of years past, a locked-in RB1 role in a Patrick Mahomes offense keeps him firmly in the RB2/3 conversation.
Bottom Line
- Isiah Pacheco had a 2024 season to forget, marred by a brutal leg injury and a subsequent rib injury through the playoff run.
- Even with an infuriating reliance on dink-and-dunk offense, there’s still a very high probability that a Patrick Mahomes-led offense is going to finish as a league-average scoring unit at worst, creating a floor for the running back room.
- According to current Underdog ADP, Pacheco is being selected as a high-end RB3 in the middle of the seventh round. Despite a woeful ‘24 campaign, he is a great click in that range, with upside as a potential top-15 option.
